theworst2
Beggars Would Ride

Confirmation Of Bias

Reading time

The image chosen above is one of the first things that showed up in a high enough resolution on my Google image search titled "the worst mountain bike ever"... It is in no way related to anything else in the following pile of words.

“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.”

The above quote is generally attributed to Mark Twain. Sometimes it references the ages of 17 and 24, but the general gist is the same. It is a telling quote about the arrogance of youth, and the time-earned realization that we don’t, as a rule, always know as much as we once thought we did. My father loved it. When I was 17, it made me grind my teeth with frustration every time he dropped it on me. But then, a few years down the road, yada yada yada.

Thing is, Mark Twain didn’t really say that. He was 11 when his dad died. This is a made up quote that somehow got attributed to Twain at some point and eventually it became part of the “old adage firmament”. One of those quotes we trot out to try and make some point, backed up by the authority of a wise old ghost, and cemented into quasi-validity by the hall of mirrors repetition of memes and Facebook reposts. I am relieved to have learned that this wasn’t something Mr Clemens actually wrote, because the repetition of “the old man” from one sentence to the next has always bugged the shit out of me, and I have long held that Twain was a caliber of writer who would not let something like that out to see the light of day.

However, the fact that Twain didn’t write this only serves in some ways to strengthen its inherent message: We don’t know as much as we think we do. New evidence will come to light. We will, eventually, find ourselves calling into question things we once thought were solid truths. That sure seems to be how it works for me these days, especially when it comes to what I think I know about bikes. Lately, it seems that just about every one of my long held assumptions deserves to be hauled up before my personal court of inquiry and exposed as a fallacy. The more I learn, the less it turns out I actually know.

Never let it be said that Mark Twain lacked perspective. He had a thing or two to say about Penny Farthings...

But I digress.

I’ve been reviewing bikes for over three decades now. When I started out, I was a gung-ho youngish XC racer and bike mechanic with a chip on his shoulder about pretty much everything. I was sorta fast once or twice a year, could twist up a nice set of hoops, and was experiencing on a daily basis the end-use customer’s dissatisfaction with the status quo of an industry trying to build what it thought was the right thing for a very young sport. Bikes were fragile and twitchy, almost everything was designed to be lightweight because XC was the god-king we all knelt before, and as a result almost everything broke if you so much as looked at it side-eyed.

As mountain biking matured and evolved, and broadened in its interpretation, the old XC-focused lens became less and less relevant. Yet, as a bike tester, I continued to cleave to the hard absolutism of a leg shaver’s needs. In some ways, that was taking the easy way out. It’s easy to find things to gripe about when all you are seeking is a way to get up a hill faster than anyone else. The hierarchy of needs is pretty simple there. The same could also be said of the exact opposite end of the spectrum, where stability and traction are the key priorities. In either case, the worth of a bike could be measured against a stopwatch.

Or could it? This is where the whole act of testing bicycles becomes a messy hairball. The lightest bike with the lightest wheels may not always be the fastest bike, for you, to climb the hill of your nightmares on. The longest travel, longest wheelbase, most grippy-tired sled may not be the bike you need to achieve terminal velocity in your personal chasm of doom. Handling, terrain specific suspension behavior, feel, responsiveness, confidence, fit; they all become part of this sense of what is working or not working that goes well beyond the basic touch points.

When we start trying to distill the how and why of what makes us feel “better” on one bike versus another, there is a huge dance of numbers that comes into play, and most of us obsess like crazy over the nuanced way those numbers interact. We hypothesize our asses off about what is working and why, or what is not working and why not. And some of the time, we may be onto something. But then again, some of the time we are talking completely out of our hypothesizing asses.

Meanwhile, we, as individual riders, change. I am no longer anything close to resembling an XC racer. So those old rules do not apply. But at the same time, I still spend a lot more time going uphill than I do going down, so maybe some of them still apply a little bit? And then, on top of all that, none of this even begins to get into that hazy atmosphere of dopamine and aesthetics and lust that acts on our emotions and weighs heavily on our perceptions, no matter how lucidly we think we are thinking…

shitbikecam2

Compounding the whole "we think we know what works best" confirmation bias feedback loop is the fact that there are blessed individuals out there who can do jaw dropping things on bikes that are straight up death traps no matter where they are ridden. Case in point: Cam McCaul and the late great Bikemag ShitBike, captured here by one of the ShitBike's proud parents, Morgan Meredith.

The version of me that assumed he knew everything has tasked some really good framebuilders with building some monumentally shitty bikes. In 1999, I asked a guy to build a 29” steel hardtail with an Action-Tec fork and a 72 degree head angle and the shortest chainstays possible to fit the new WTB NanoRaptor. My thinking at the time was that the bigger wheels would be slower handling, so we should steepen things up to keep the handling snappy. This, combined with a miscommunication between builder and me about effective top tube length (24”) and actual top tube length resulted in a bike that had the desired 72 degree head angle, as well as a somewhere around 22” ETT, a wheelbase just shy of 42”, and an absolutely vicious case of front wheel/toe overlap. Set up as a single speed with a 2:1 gear, it was an exercise in sheer terror to ride. Kind of like a very big, very mean BMX bike with a propensity for endo-ing on any obstacle large enough to snag the front wheel. Somehow I still managed to set a personal best time at the Cascade Cream Puff 100 miler aboard it, and I rode it for a couple years without any broken collarbones. But wow. What a monumentally bad idea. Or bad set of ideas.

That was one bike. There were quite a few others. Some were good, some were bad. At least I was putting my hypotheses to the test, right? So, obviously I KNOW what works now, right?

Here’s a small sampling from the list of things that I KNOW, that I have since been proven absolutely wrong about:

Wheelbases will never need to be longer than 45” for a trail bike.

Head angles will never need to be slacker than 67 degrees for a trail bike.

29ers will always need steeper geometry to compensate for increased gyroscopic effect.

There is no such thing as “too stiff” when it comes to lateral flex or wheels.

Bigger tires will always be better in bigger terrain.

Downhillers will never accept 29” wheels.

It’s a real long list. This sampling is barely the tip of the iceberg. The number of things that I have been “right” about when it comes to assumptions regarding bike geometry, design, and handling is far outnumbered by the number of things I have been wrong about. My biases have been in a state of constant revision for the past decade, and finally, hopefully, I am reaching the allegorical Mark Twain at 24-years old stage. I do not know nearly as much as I once thought I did.

There’s a new test bike downstairs. It represents a bunch of things that I think are really cool; easy adaptability to different wheel sizes and travel lengths, small-batch built, sort of handmade, steel. It also incorporates several aspects of my bias list that I would deem as not feasible; steel full suspension, single pivot, coil sprung. Compared to the Yeti SB140 that I am reaching the conclusion of testing, this thing has an antediluvian, almost steampunk vibe. My first ride on it - on a hot as balls day where the trails were all sketchy, high consequence, kitty litter and ugly rut mindfucks - felt like the start of a love affair.

Hello, bias list. Prepare for your next revision. Thank God this bike doesn’t have an idler-pivot. That would be too much crow to eat in one sitting.

ZerodebikesG3-4

I may be prying my reluctant mind open, but I still gotta draw the line somewhere... I'm not evolved enough yet for this.

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Comments

MTB_THETOWN
+9 T0m Mike Ferrentino shenzhe mrbrett kcy4130 Suns_PSD Rowdy Orin Hansen solar_evolution

That short story from Mark Twain was an absolute delight

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jt
+9 bishopsmike Mike Ferrentino TristanC Timer Pete Roggeman Tehllama42 vunugu Rowdy lewis collins

Living long enough to being proved wrong is a blessing. It means you're alive and alert enough to learn, and that's a pleasant thought. Black bird casserole not withstanding of course.

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JakeE.Pooh
+6 bushtrucker tomis916 fartymarty kcy4130 vunugu NealWood

Sometimes, I love Mike Ferrentino. This is one of those times.

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velocipedestrian
+5 taprider Mike Ferrentino Mammal bushtrucker Orin Hansen

Having kids has rapidly escalated my understanding of my ignorance. 

On the flipside, there's a six year old in the house who's key phrase is "Don't tell me that, I know that".

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craw
0

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lookseasyfromhere
+5 Andy Eunson Mike Ferrentino shenzhe Velocipedestrian bushtrucker

"Wheelbases will never need to be longer than 45” for a trail bike"

I can immediately mark out about 45" with my hands, but have no idea how it relates to a bike's wheelbase. Conversely, I have only a loose idea what 1143mm looks like without using a calculator (more than 3', less than 6'), but know exactly how it relates to a bike's wheelbase. The idiosyncrasies of obsessive stat-analyzation.

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TristanC
+4 Velocipedestrian Mike Ferrentino Mammal lewis collins

As I've gotten older (the ancient age of 30), I have discovered that I am constantly wrong, and that is OK. The world hasn't ended yet. It also makes it a lot easier to be cool when somebody else is wrong, because I've been there, and it really doesn't matter.

More importantly, in that last picture - is that a hair scrunchie holding those two pulleys together?

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sdurant12
+6 Mike Ferrentino IslandLife Mammal Christian Strachan TerryP TristanC

A *well calibrated* scrunchie

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velocipedestrian
0

That is not a scrunchie, that is a hair tie. 

A well calibrated hair tie.

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xy9ine
0

that's awesome. light / simple / effective. random: the old lahar dh bike used a similarly minimalist tensioner that employed elastic cord. the designer of said bike & the zerode guys hung out bitd; perhaps an inspiration. 

also - i like all those words up above. though generally erring on the open minded end of the spectrum, i've quite often eagerly supported new ideas that end up being on the right(ish) side of technological advancement. in retrospect, amusing how vehemently some people were opposed to some of these, and good time was spent arguing said merits; ie, disc brakes, suspension (first front, then rear), longer / lower / slacker geometry, carbon fiber dh bikes, bigger wheels on big bikes, gearboxes (ok, i've since walked back my evangelizing a bit)... 

it's been a fun journey

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rolly
+4 mnihiser Andy Eunson Jerry Willows Kos

"I have discovered that I am constantly wrong" - you must've gotten married. ;)

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andy-eunson
+3 chacou Kos Pete Roggeman

I forget which comedian said it. "Marriage", he said " is about compromise. 

For example I wanted to get a dog. My wife wanted a cat. So we compromised. 

We got a cat".

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kos
+2 Andy Eunson Kyle Dixon

Marriage is about compromises.

Compromises you would have never had to make if you'd stayed single!

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KDix85
0

Sometimes I ponder on compromise, while alone in bed.

Then I sprawl my 6'3" self out on the king size in any fashion I please and let the thought pass...

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enduroExpert78
+4 Mike Ferrentino bishopsmike Mammal bushtrucker

I was loath to move towards 29's before this season's annual Wednesday evening trail races in June. I believed they were numb, slow responding hoops of dread, incapable of rapidly accelerating unlike my 27.5's. I couldn't have been more wrong in my bias against 29's.

The speed I could carry over terrain and the traction on corners more than compensates for a little less precise turn in and initial acceleration. Subsequent races on the 29's were faster. My steel SS HT will remain 29.  

Now I'm biased towards swapping the front wheel on my 27.5 all mountain FS for a 29 to confirm I can send it down steep chutes with more confidence. The bike manufacturer doesn't recommend this move, but biases are powerful motivators.

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Dogl0rd
0

I made the switch and I still think they are numb

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LWK
+4 Andy Eunson Velocipedestrian Pete Roggeman Suns_PSD

A few weeks ago I learned that a friend of my wife had  "an old MTB" hanging in her garage that wasnt working but she would like to ride it again.  Turns out its a 1999 Rocky Mountain Thin Air that is in pristine shape.  This was a fancy XC race bike back in day.  Its very cool. 

Needed air in the tires and a quick trip to the shop to remove some gunk inside the shifter that had gummed up the ratchet mechanism but is now good to go. 

But holy s***.  NOT in a good way.  Its kind of like being on a rickety triathlon bike with very small wheels. I cant imagine riding it on the tamest singletrack and even gravel paths might be sketchy. I am having a hard time figuring out how/why any of us ever thought this was a good bike!

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XXX_er
+1 Andy Eunson

there are whole bunch of  vintage bikes/ vintage parts/ vintage WTF on FB, I look at that stuff and figure its all just old  junk as you have found out 

I  have been using a 20 yr old steel Kona  for touring but now that they make touring bikes with bigger wheels its obselete

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andy-eunson
+4 LWK Suns_PSD Velocipedestrian Skooks

So true. They were what we thought were great bikes, at the time. I find it truly hilarious that certain people on the vintage bike sites talk about the old bikes from the 80s and 90s as "rides like a dream". I always think to myself: "what kind of dream? A recurring nightmare perhaps?" I think what these retrogrouch people are really saying when they talk about how great those straight skis from the 80s were, of how good that 1990 Stumpjumper Team Issue was, is actually how fit and strong I was back then. They are pinning for the body they had then and the good times they had because they were young. I dunno about others, but ski better and ride better now on modern equipment than I ever did. Just not as aggressive because of potential for injury.

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pete@nsmb.com
+1 Andy Eunson

Exact same story, but a neighbour gave me the bike - a '96 Rocky Mountain Blizzard. Fixed it up and gave it to my son. He grew out of it in about two months. Now it's gathering dust again. Fun to look at though.

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andy-eunson
+2 Mike Ferrentino Skooks

I read this a few years ago and I think it applies to me and other uh, less young riders. Young riders are far more willing to try new things whereas we older folks know what we know and are far less accepting of new stuff. 

https://tommccallum.com/2019/06/27/intelligence-is-both-fluid-and-crystallised/

It’s important to keep an open mind and be willing to try new things but at the same time be critical of new things and ask why it is supposed to be better. Try flat pedals and see what happens. My feet hurt and fall asleep because the shoes are too flexible for my old feet. I can’t see going back to bars that are 600mm }wide but 800 for my proportions is stupid. Current mechanical shifting is phenomenally good compared to the 3 by 5 friction shifting I started on in 1983. Some changes manufacturers make are simply different. But you know, try stuff. See what sticks.

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Timer
+4 Velocipedestrian Mike Ferrentino LWK Andy Eunson

With bike stuff, what puts me off of many "new things" is the unending stream of marketing hyperbole and blind zealotry that tends to come with it. Its usually not about the things themselves but about the surrounding attitudes. 

As a scientist, discovering new things is my day job. But that also entails being able to distinguish between things that are actually new and things which someone is trying to sell as new. And it also taught me that truly revolutionary discoveries are very, very rare. Most actually new things are small improvements or they primarily benefit certain situations or subgroups. While the bike industry proclaims a worldwide paradigm-shift roughly every 2 years or so, which is just ridiculous.

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skooks
+2 Mike Ferrentino TerryP

I've finally learned not to use absolute terms like *never* and *always* when I make predictions about things if I don't want to eventually be proven wrong.

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Bli33ard
+2 Skooks Mike Ferrentino

When you get old enough, you may discover you were wrong about being wrong... mostly because you don't care about other peoples' opinions. If you're a true mountain biker you can appreciate everything that came before, or shit like '67 Mustang fastbacks would all be sent the crusher. All the 5.0Ls could go there though as they really were the worst cars to ever go down an assembly line. Others may not share MY opinion, yes?

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kcy4130
+1 Mike Ferrentino tomis916 Konrad

I adore Twain, I love finding something of his I haven't read before, thanks for that!

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tomis916
+1 kcy4130

Agreed.  I consider myself a Twain fan, but I've never run across this and it is priceless.

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flattire2
+1 Mike Ferrentino

It's been a particularly painful/emberrasing last 20 years of MTB innovation.  In the early days they got more wrong than right:

BB's need to be sky-high!

23" top tube for a medium is the rule, no exceptions.

Lets not even consider seat tube angles and the effect on overall GEO until about 2015.  My old intense was meant to be pedalled and had a 70.5 STA LOL

29ers need STEEPER head angles

135-->142-->148-->157

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mikesee
+1 Mike Ferrentino

Moment of silence for Action Tec, and Russ the man behind it. Legit good dude with some well executed whackadoodle ideas.

If I could still get Action Tec parts, I would be building a custom frame around that fork today.

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mikeferrentino
0

Fuuuuck, another one bites the dust? Russ packed a whole lot of cranial horsepower. Came across this while trying to find out if he was still kicking: https://arizonaandpacificrr.com/spot/trinityalps/trinityalps.html

"Oh this little thing? It's just the fully functional miniature railroad I built for fun, with a diesel hydraulic motor THAT I ALSO BUILT."

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mikesee
+1 Mike Ferrentino

Didn't mean to kill him off, but AT is definitely dead.

He sold the biz so he could retire -- maybe ought nine or so -- and shipped me a custom fork on the last day before turning the keys over.  AT started its death spiral that day.

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mikeferrentino
0

I assumed from your first comment that both AT and he had shuffled off this mortal coil. Did a bit of googling; from what I could glean, he was still writing letters to the editor at the Trinity Journal as recently as this June, so I am hoping he is still upside of the grass.

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XXX_er
+1 TristanC Sandy James Oates BarryW

I was rong about E-bikes, they dont wreck the trails, they have zero  negative effect on mtn biking and  they are a whole bunch of fun

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BarryW
+1 Lynx .

Except that thay are motorized cycles (motorcycles) not bicycles. 

But yeah, otherwise fun.

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Frorider
+5 burnskiez BarryW Velocipedestrian Andy Eunson Lynx .

On a per-km basis the bropeds don’t have more impact, but lower fitness riders getting in 3 laps on a trail they’d normally lap once increases impact obviously.

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XXX_er
0

well actualy this plays right into   " stuff we thot was true " cuz I also used to say e-bikes would wear out the trails 

But up here both the builders and also the club pres  ride E-bikes,  I talk to them lots buy them beers and they say there are no ill effects from allowing e-bikes,  

what they don't like/ what  really fucks up trails is riding them while wet and of course the riders who braid to get a quicker strava

edit: I am curious how does a  " lower fitness rider " get in 3 laps when super fit acoustic bro only gets one  ?

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andy-eunson
+2 Velocipedestrian taprider

A similar argument was made by hikers when mountain bikes first started getting into the woods and perceived conflicts arose. And hikers were right. A person on a bike has a similar impact to a trail per distance travelled as a hiker. Or probably an e-bike. But any trail user has an impact to a trail. You travel more distance that equals more impact in a given amount of time. But mountain bike associations all over have stepped up to build and maintain the trails they use. I don’t know but I would bet that as a percentage that e-bikes have become members of various trail associations in a similar percentage to bikers. When I ride in Squamish I see many e-bikes.  To me the ebike issue has more to do with an increase in trail use. Some people think we need to grow the sport. I don’t. Maybe in Smithers growth has positive implications but in places like North Vancouver and Squamish growth has a lot of negatives. Look at Garibaldi park and hiking. You need a day use permit most of the year. Camping is out of control in Whistler as there are limited spaces that must be booked ahead of time so folks are camping off the various logging roads and in many instances making a complete mess. 

It doesn’t take much foresight to see mountain biking head there too. Lots of places in Europe are bike park or trail centre only. We are privileged in BC to have so much freedom to build and ride . I don’t want to see that altered due to overuse.

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XXX_er
+1 Andy Eunson

Ocassionaly I am the only rider at the area on a mid afternoon so I think localy  we are many years from the negative implications of growth at the bike area, but more trail can always  be built. I forsee there will be more gov $$$$$$  to build all the area between the XC and the bike area where the hikers have some trails once  the hikers ( 70+) die off and can no longer lobby for or take care of  their hiking area

so at least locally it would appear when e-bikes are allowed in a very controled area that is not crowded  nothing bad happens 

it sound like your problem is not the E-bike,  its living  in the best place in the world or beattiful BC  ( or SFT ) with > 2million of your best friends and the genie is out of the bottle

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Mopedmatt
+1 Mike Ferrentino

Great article Mike.  This evolution of understanding that you describe around mountain bikes is happening simultaneously with trail design and construction practices.  The feedback between these dynamic disciplines is truly miraculous.  If someone told me in 1993 what I would be riding today, I’m not sure I would have believed it.

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maximum-radness
+1 Derek Baker

Found it, for anyone who cares……

https://veli.bike

Super interesting. 

The designer put his wallet where his ideas are, and for that we can all applaud him.

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ridestuff
0

I'm all for external cables, but that dropper looks sooo awkward!

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burnbern
0

I remember the first "big bike" 29er I rode, in the earlier days of 29ers, that had the suspension I thought I needed for the trails I was riding at the time. It was a Pivot Firebird. And it confirmed everything that I "knew" about non-XC 29 inch wheeled bikes: "soo slow to turn, awkward accelerating, tooo long, bb too high, only useful in a straight line, terrible to climb tech etc." 

But then what I really remember was the first time I rode the Ibis Ripmo and suddenly I knew I'd be riding 29er going forward. It was a pretty clear moment of my brain instantly rewiring what I "knew" for sure to something else I knew for sure...

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kos
0

Well, this truism still holds (no matter how many near-great columns Mike has written since):

There will never be a better mtb column than "The Never-Ending Gift of Shit"!

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DogVet
0

Be interested to know what the steel, coil sprung, single pivot, is?

Starling, Egerie-velo?

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maximum-radness
0

Could it be an SST? The real question is what is that lovely carbon doohickey in the image???

Australian bespoke if my PB memory serves?

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cyclotoine
0

Sounds like you’ve got a Starling. I’m quite curious about those. Enough to consider one for my next bike. Looking forward to the review(s).

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