AI and ChatGPT

NBR hive mind, what are your thoughts on the recent developments in AI? Everyone is freaking out and it seems like I was correct in thinking that doctors and lawyers should be concerned. These tools are going to start coming at us rapidly and I don't think 99% of people are thinking about what this all means to society. When it comes to our jobs AI is probably not going to take over people's positions in one fell swoop, but it will be coming at all of our jobs from every angle by taking tasks off your plate one by one. What ChatGPT has revealed to many people, including the so-called experts, is that this will grow much faster than most thought possible.

I use MS Office and Google for my business so I am eager to see what their AI tools can do. For a small operation like mine these tools could be super useful, but eventually I could see AI replacing my business completely.

We are at a nexus of technology where computing power has finally reached a point where it can do large amounts of processing in real time and that is making a lot of sci-fi type technology feasible. We are close to having robots that clean our house, self driving cars/planes/boats, vaccinations for cancer and heart disease, medicines the stop the aging process, foods that can be grown without pesticides or fertilizer, gene editing for hereditary diseases, and of course lots of AI and maybe even AGI. If you apply all of this to the real world there is not a lot left that only people can do. They used to think the artists where safe, but now AI can make videos, music, and art from a prompt. The first AI written hit single is coming soon, I am sure of it. Plus all of the things we lack the imagination to see coming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTs3FuJGiQ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHxwllo3Ik0

ChatGPT-3

Q - Why is North Vancouver the best place to mountain bike?

A - North Vancouver is widely considered one of the best places in the world for mountain biking for several reasons:
Varied terrain: North Vancouver has a diverse terrain, ranging from smooth flow trails to technical descents and steep climbs, which makes it an ideal destination for riders of all skill levels.
Accessible trails: The North Shore Mountain Bike Association (NSMBA) has built an extensive network of trails throughout the region that are easily accessible to riders.
World-renowned trails: Some of the most famous trails in the world are located in North Vancouver, including the legendary North Shore trails. These trails are known for their technical features such as steep drops, log rides, and skinnies.
Beautiful scenery: North Vancouver is surrounded by beautiful mountains and forests, making it an incredibly scenic place to ride.
Active community: There is a strong mountain biking community in North Vancouver, with many local events, clubs, and groups that offer support and camaraderie to riders.
Overall, North Vancouver's combination of varied terrain, accessible trails, world-renowned trails, beautiful scenery, and active community make it a top destination for mountain biking enthusiasts.

AI is not always right....  NSMBA has not built many trails....  mostly maintenance on the sanctioned trails but those are certainly not the best ones out there.

With each new technological change or development the pace of  change has increased rapidly. I expect that AI, or better IA - intelligence augmentation - will rapidly change our world and would guess that in 10 or 15 years our lifestyles will be very different from what they are now. I think lawyers may be one of the first major job categories to see significant losses due to AI. Jobs that require significant knowledge bases and manipulation of that data will be in trouble.

Posted by: LoamtoHome

AI is not always right....  NSMBA has not built many trails....  mostly maintenance on the sanctioned trails but those are certainly not the best ones out there.

True, but the net effect of the protective envelope the NSMBA has created has allowed the community to flourish - something that doesn't happen without a good trail org.

Industrial revolution, assembly lines, computer automation, etc., have all been of benefit when properly adopted and adapted to.  This will be the same.

Hype machine is in full swing for large language model and AI in general.  10 years ago, said same hype machine told me my car would be driving me to work by now.  

Right now this is an interesting productivity enhancement toolset, but it'll push false statements with more confidence than Shogun.  Interesting space to watch as it progresses.

Just wait until Trump figures out how to use ChatGPT.  😲

Posted by: syncro

With each new technological change or development the pace of  change has increased rapidly. I expect that AI, or better IA - intelligence augmentation - will rapidly change our world and would guess that in 10 or 15 years our lifestyles will be very different from what they are now. I think lawyers may be one of the first major job categories to see significant losses due to AI. Jobs that require significant knowledge bases and manipulation of that data will be in trouble.

This is how I see it as well.  It is impossible to make any real predictions but it will get very different.  For lawyers, I have no idea how they will be able to compete with a computer that can spit out contracts in seconds.  

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

Hype machine is in full swing for large language model and AI in general.  10 years ago, said same hype machine told me my car would be driving me to work by now.  

Right now this is an interesting productivity enhancement toolset, but it'll push false statements with more confidence than Shogun.  Interesting space to watch as it progresses.

True, but we do have the tech for cars to drive around freely as promised, we just don't have them working safely enough to take the leap and it be take a while to sort out the regulations.  We are not nearly as restricted with generative AI and unlike a car there really isn't any physical components to slow down progress.  I think what is an interesting productivity toolset today will be as transformative as the industrial revolution but in a fraction of the time.  In the wild these algorithms are already compiling vast volumes of data by interacting with customers while learning more and getting better processing speed and memory.  This is more like the hype of the "information super highway" back in the early '90s IMO.  Which is to say that most people have no idea how much it will change things.  

Picture this.  You have an AI assistant in your computer that you can talk to naturally.  It can send emails and communicate with people, sort through spreadsheets and produce reports, answers phones, do research, create graphics for marketing, and write ad copy.  Even if it does this half ass it can make one person capable of doing the work of 2 or 3.  That is where we are today without any more advancement, but all these services are spread around a bunch of different tech companies and are not coordinated to work across platforms yet.  Google, Microsoft, and Apple will all offer this very soon.

I fully expect to have an AI as basically an employee soon.  They will have their own email and do what an assistant would do only far better, far faster, and far cheaper.  It will be able to ace the bar exam and the MCATs in seconds.  It won't forget to follow up with a client, or place an order with my supplier.  It will track things for me in real time.  

I don't know, maybe I am too biased to see this clearly, but it feels like we are about to witness the first massive productivity bump from AI.  I think the knowledge based economy is about to get rocked.

This is a crazy presentation. This is a group that wants to pause any AI stronger than GPT-4 to the public. Go to about 11:30 if you want to skip how we screwed up with social media to the part where they describe Gollum AIs. They were only invented in 2017 and have taken over all disciplines of AI. They get into the possibilities of they can do now with current technologies that are pretty shocking at around 20:00.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ

That was interesting. Thanks for sharing.. i thibk typos and grammar errors are whats gunna separate the men from the bots in the the future.

Posted by: Adam-West

That was interesting. Thanks for sharing.. i thibk typos and grammar errors are whats gunna separate the men from the bots in the the future.

KenN will blend in with the other bots and be forced to use the wrong "there" so we know it's really him.  haha

The part of the video that made me say "WTF?" was where they showed that image generating AI can use an fMRI to literally read your mind.  

In this picture the images in red boxes are the ones the subjects could see, the other images are the AI reviewing the data from the fMRI and generating an image on what they think the subject is looking at.  Mind fucking blown.  There is no way in hell that American intelligence is not strapping some poor asshole to one of these as we speak to test how good it is at interrogation.  

“The most interesting part of our research is that the diffusion model—so-called image-generating AI which […] was not created to understand the brain—predicts brain activity well and can be used to reconstruct visual experiences from the brain,” Takagi told Newsweek.

It sounds a bit like we overestimated how amazing our brains are and underestimated how powerful these AI models are.  They are doing amazing things that they were not even designed for.

It is time for a pause.  We need to sort this out this year, but the cat may very well be out of the bag.

So it hasn't even been a year since I started this thread and recently Open AI came out with Sora for text to video that has to have Hollywood execs pooping their pants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK6y8DAPN_0

For a comparison, I entered the same prompt from last year but instead of ChatGPT-3, I am using Google's Gemini which is due for an upgrade any time now.

Q: Why is North Vancouver the best place to mountain bike?
A: North Vancouver is considered a world-class mountain biking destination for several reasons:

• Pioneering History: The North Shore was at the forefront of mountain biking's evolution. Riders here invented freeriding, pushing the limits of what was possible on two wheels. This led to the development of unique trail building with technical features like drops, ladders, and skinnies.

• Challenging and Diverse Trails: North Vancouver offers a huge variety of trails, catering to everyone from beginners to expert-level riders. You'll find technical downhill runs, flowy cross-country trails, burly rock slabs, and everything in between.

• Accessibility: The trail networks on Mount Fromme, Mount Seymour, and Cypress Mountain are easily accessible from downtown Vancouver. This makes it ideal for day trips or even an after-work ride.

• Strong Community and Trail Culture: The North Shore Mountain Bike Association (NSMBA) is a dedicated non-profit focused on building and maintaining an incredible trail network. Their work ensures top-notch trail conditions and fosters a welcoming community for all riders.

• Beautiful Scenery: The trails wind through lush coastal rainforest, with views of the city and ocean. You'll likely experience the quintessential Pacific Northwest riding experience.

• Keep in mind:

• Technical Difficulty: Many trails on the North Shore are notoriously technical. While there are options for all levels, the area definitely favors experienced riders looking for a challenge.

• Weather: The rainy Pacific Northwest climate can make trails wet and slippery. Plan your gear and timing accordingly.

If you're looking for the birthplace of freeride mountain biking with a vast array of challenging trails and an outstanding community, North Vancouver is certainly hard to beat!

The answers are definitely better and Gemini 1.5 will have the ability to summarize much longer docs with 128,000 tokens. Google also already has a 1,000,000 token model in the pipe as well. I would imagine ChatGPT-5 will blow the doors off these numbers yet again.

The next big thing will be AI agents, and IMO they will the first real game changer for most people. Google, Microsoft, and Apple should have a big advantage since they have eco-systems for an AI agent to work within, but I don't know how they will work yet.

First there were AI chatbots. Now AI assistants can order Ubers and book vacations

Ai is also getting used more with robots. For all you investors, robotics is going to explode. It is also going to change healthcare, education, law, research, engineering, etc. And it is all going to happen crazy fast.

this was a good listen on the subject.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/ai-video-s-groundbreaking-controversial-leap-forward-1.7119547

Someone at work shared this a while ago, I find it a good down-to-earth look at the current AI hype:

https://locusmag.com/2023/12/commentary-cory-doctorow-what-kind-of-bubble-is-ai/

Basically, yes AI can do amazing things but it's very expensive and it's very difficult to get right. So the question is, once the hype subsides and the investor money dries up, how to make it economically viable?

Also recently Air Canada found out they were liable for mistakes made by their support chatbot:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/air-canada-chatbot-lawsuit-1.7116416

Interesting times.