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TylerDurden's posts

809 posts found

Sept. 26, 2016, 11:08 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
How much do you know about financial independence?

Free download of David Chiltons the Wealthy Barber Returns. No strings attached. An entertaining read about spending vs saving, and what drives consumption habit.

https://www.tangerine.ca/en/landing-page/wealthybarberreturns/index.html

Available till end of this year only.

For me, the value of this thread isn't to debate saving vs consumption, but more importantly to make sure the savers are doing so w/o getting hosed. The spenders are over in the Gear forum and shopping for new carbon, so why they high-horse Mint tips etc here?

The real debate is between the folks like Chilton and the more capitalistic folks betting on volatility, using leverage and taking on RE debt etc. For past 8-10yr+, there's been a huge opportunity cost of being that risk monger conservative bear that calls for the bubble burst. They've left a ton of money on the table. So much so, that even if there's a 20% correction in the coming year(s), the non-bears will still be ahead on returns as compared to the renters trying bonds and long term deposits.

Giving advise like Chilton is really a period-piece. The idea of a REIT ETF wasn't around during the time he penned the Barber, so I don't fault him.

Of course, it can get out of hand (think:Synthetic Credit Default Swap)….so our task is to not repeat the past when the S[HTML_REMOVED]P is at record highs.

So what's your strategy? Are you a value investor? Do you short certain sectors or are against any derivative investment products? Are you doing any currency hedging based on where you think the loonie is headed?

Sept. 25, 2016, 7:41 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Interbike Wish List

and also, 1x, 2x, didn't matter, everyones drivetrain sounded like it was going to explode at the end of yesterdays greasy 8 hour mud fest!

Any reason to think Di2 would have helped on this 8hr ride or is grit in a chain [HTML_REMOVED] cassette the same and hence it won't matter?

Sept. 9, 2016, 12:56 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Rain jackets

Thanks for the replies so far. This will be a jacket in hoping to be able to wear off the bike too, so knowing it can be used for things like trail building easily is a bonus.

I tried on an Arc'teryx Beta LT with the GoreTex Pro fabric and was impressed with the fit and feel of it. Definitely seems to be a durable membrane, which is key for such an expensive piece of kit.

Good news - off the bike, the 7Mesh seems to be a hit. In fact, the only one I've seen was in the stands at a Whitecaps Games (the industry edition yellow one). Good thing that guy got the Pro Gore-Tex or else he'd be sweating like a madman..

Aug. 16, 2016, 10:01 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
2016 Olympics thread!

Georgia Simmerling on our women's pursuit team is a cool story. Alpine skiing in 2010, ski cross in 2014 and track cycling in 2016. She's only been riding a track bike for 2 years. Apparently, rowing was her first choice for a summer sport, but there was too much conflict with her ski training, so she switched to cycling

So Georgia is picking a sport based on olympic medal, not for for genuine love of the discipline. A means to an end, to get that badge of honour, and then move on after the olympics. Meanwhile, some track cyclists who've been doing it for years and will keep doing it after Rio, aren't there. I get it, best qualifiers should be there, but I can't really cheer for this approach to sport. It's really not unlike riding trails for Strava KOM's…

July 28, 2016, 7:28 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
those cashing out

Went to a kids bday in eastvan, met a couple who'd cashed out metro Vancouver for West Shore /Colwood w/their kid. Then on the ferry, met a couple watching their kid play - they were coming back from house hunting trip, saying semi-rural stuff in CRD was getting a dozen offers and going for $100K over asking. They were cashing out a Kits place as the dad could move to his engineering firm's Victoria office and she worked remotely.

Yes, metro Vancouver families are cashing out if their job will let them. Yes, there's a knock-on effect to RE prices in CRD, mid-island, SSC and likely further out.

It's funny cause the civic planners are all about making compact communities to get liveabiliy…like low walk-score stuff but all that thinking gets undermined if most the families pull the plug due to price point.

June 22, 2016, 6:38 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
BC Politics

Too many people will lose that sweet sweet home equity if things change

THIS X2.

The Globe and others are saying the housing correction is most likely to come from an economy downturn, not rising rates etc. So now 'we're all in this together' as economy = jobs…so the luxury of saying 'no' is fading or else we risk having a housing 'house of cards' come crashing down.

So the NDP jobs plan better be gold plated otherwise Christy's team is the only hope…

April 27, 2016, 6:33 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

Not sure if I am reading your post correctly, but are you suggesting:

1) That people need to invest their money prior to making a down payment on a house? Isn't this common sense..? I'm sure the vast majority of people have their future downpayment fund sitting in some sort of investment and not just sitting in a non-interest bearing account.

2) That people should be sharing houses with friends and family to make it more affordable for everyone?

I'm talking about something does more for your savings than just beat inflation. And no, I'm not trying solve all comers, just the early-mid career worker bees that were close but now priced out and venting here. Sorry if you thought I was some cure-all.

April 27, 2016, 2:01 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

The idea that simply putting aside salary to pull together the mortgage down payment is a bit too simplistic now. You've got to be joining the investor-class and turning that nest egg into much more. You can do that in RE by buying in another locale and renting it, or in equities etc.

Just grinding it out with setting $$ aside while you skimp and sacrifice isn't going to cut it when the mortgage values are going up so fast.

Throwing up your hands w/o getting creative on sharing mortgages with friends or family to split your costs is also too simplistic. There's been lots of articles on how you can own fee-simple with friends sharing the space and your having a formal arrangement on the split. Find your angle. It's true that Boomers never needed to be this clever to get in…

April 23, 2016, 5:11 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Here's the deal

The deal with Squamish: the rental rates to mortgage value is pretty sweet, so potential buyers know they can get top dollar for the income suite. Why? Lots of people in S2S corridor don't have jobs the banks like to give mortgages too (ie most your income is tips at the Longhorn etc). So they are all looking and the supply isn't there due to the flood plain, and limited buildable area, and all the other renters they have to compete with.

So the property values keep going up b/c you know a big chunk of the mortgage can be paid by the local renters. This will keep Squamish pretty recession proof for the foreseeable future.

April 22, 2016, 9:28 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Schools surrounded by empty nests

Pay off the mortgage, use equity to repair or renovate to your liking (optional), then live tax-deferred in your home until you die. 100,000 old Italian guys can't be wrong. Renting could still cost you an arm and a leg - there is also a shortage of rental housing. Downsizing? End up paying outrageous condo fees, assessments for repair of shoddy construction and douchebag, in-your-face neighbors that you will never be rid of that you can hear through the walls for the rest of your life.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/99_homes/

This is why we see school closures - these ol empty nesters don't take the hint and now we have see empty schools. Meanwhile, the inventory for families that have to commute gets squeezed. The ol Italian guys aren't exactly keeping the nearby restaurants open either. It'd make more sense to move 'em all to Willoughby and let the working stiffs get closer to the jobs

April 8, 2016, 3:19 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

I think it's a safe bet Christy will do everything in her power not to change a damn thing until Vancouver is a ghost town and all the schools are privatized…

In the BC economy the housing sector revenue is more than forestry and mining combined. Given the state of our LNG play, do you think any gov't would move to cool housing in such a situation ? We're hooked on stuff like property transfer tax to pay for uncle Sid's Lipitor and the like.

Add in the fact the Harper bet it all on oil, there's little driver for higher interest rates in our petro-state national economy.

So in terms of the next 18mo, I'd love to hear from tinfoil hat corner on what will cause a persistent correction in VanRe? Bonus points for saying the same things said in 2011..

April 7, 2016, 7:29 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

There are services you can pay for that will do all that for you… and you will come out far, far ahead if you are in a desirable place.

If I did either to my place in Whistler, I could probably get a full year of rent on two to three months of nightly AirBnB rentals.

Especially given that you pay tax on the rental income but not on the AirB[HTML_REMOVED]B $$

April 6, 2016, 11:04 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Post pix of your commuter bike.

hey while we're on the topic of commuters, what's everyone running for tires theses days? I just got a front flat on my trusty continental gatorskins (700x32) so it's time for a new set of shoes

The 35c kenda's on my Simcoe have been nice balance of cush and weight. Only flatted once in 15mo. Reflective stripe is nice feature for commuter tires too..

March 31, 2016, 2:43 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

I'm dreading the ripple effect that Vancouver sell outs will cause around here.

This raises an interesting point. If GenX or boomers cash out and leave Vancouver, what's the effect for the places east of Coquitlam or on the island? Nanaimo [HTML_REMOVED] Kamloops not so cheap anymore?

March 31, 2016, 7:56 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Highest Bidder

This one is a long, but worth the read. Some gems:

“I feel like we’re in that movie The Andromeda Strain?,” he says, “where everybody has died from a mystery virus, and we’re the only survivors.”

"In Dunbar, a small non-descript house on West 22nd Avenue sold for $2.6 million and was flipped eight months later for $1 million more."

"Since the 1980s, he estimates that more than 200,000 Asian immigrants have come to Vancouver through federal-based investor programs. An internal-use-only study from 2012 conducted by Citizenship and Immigration Canada (and unearthed by South China Morning Post reporter Ian Young) showed that after five years in Canada, only 39 percent of program applicants reported any income earnings. Those who did report annual income showed an average of $21,000 at the five-year mark. After fifteen years here, the figure climbed slightly, to $25,000. Refugees, the study showed, averaged $30,000 in earnings after fifteen years—more than people who came to Canada as “investors.”"

"Ogden had helped her client move $500,000 (US) through friends and family, who sent ten wire transfers of $50,000 (US) into ten cibc accounts—money used as the down payment on a $5.7 million Vancouver mansion."

"“Now it’s a financial-services and retirement-support and construction economy, and I think that’s okay. I think we should recognize that’s a natural transformation, driven by immigration and the fact that our corner of the planet is a beautiful, stable place with very little corruption.”"

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