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TylerDurden's posts

809 posts found

Feb. 11, 2017, 8:17 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

A friend of mine bought a 2 bdrm condo In East Van about 7 months ago for $570k. The unit across the hall, which is smaller and not as nice, just listed for $650. Another 2 bdrm down the hall, which was a bit bigger and nicer, was listed for $750k and sold for $808k in a week or so. My friend's agent told him he could easily pocket $100k if he wanted to flip it. In 7 months. He said that while houses have cooled slightly, the condo market is insane.

Interesting. Perhaps there's a mortgage broker or realtor reading this thread, but consider these high priced condo's vs. older SFH in east van where you rent the basement suite for $1900 and skip the $300 strata fee? Better still, pretend you're like most and don't mention the rental income at tax time. All this presumes you have the 20% down….

Where I'm going with this is that most don't have $300K (20% of $1.5) equity for the older SFH down payment so they drive up the prices on condos. BUT, if you can stomach the bank statement that says you own $1.1M, I wonder how much more you pay a month after rental and strata are considered (ie you net $2200-2400 more a month than condo guy, maybe just $2K if you consider property tax) in this low interest rate setting. Sure, the bears will come in and say the big rate hike is around the corner, but with oil down [HTML_REMOVED] out I don't see it.

I guess my point is that the system seems stacked in favour of those willing to take leverage. Wait another year of SFH cooling and then pounce whilst your condo buddy read over depreciation reports and special assessments? I mean, the renters will beat a path to your door in this market, so its not like you can't pick [HTML_REMOVED] choose.

The big x factor here is the future price increases. If the SFH price stagnates and condos stay hot, this could tip the scales. Assignment sales are exempt from 15% and that could have a knock-on effect in the condo market. Another consideration is to get even more from AirB[HTML_REMOVED]B for the SFH suite. The city hearings on AirB[HTML_REMOVED]B had SFH owners coming out says the only way they can make the numbers work is AirB[HTML_REMOVED]B…but that's a whole 'nother topic..

Feb. 9, 2017, 5:38 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

Not usually one to quote the Tyee..but this is pretty straight-forward:

"Whether we like it or not, B.C. has basically become a real estate economy. The BC Assessment office recently released numbers for 2017 showing that property values ballooned by a staggering $332 billion — 25 per cent — last year. This figure is more than five times the economic value of all goods-producing industries in 2015 combined and nearly double the size of our entire service sector that same year."

I know assessed values aren't same a GDP values…but the incentive is clear and are the winners and losers when this sector dominates.

The newest census makes clear that our population growth is a) heavily reliant on immigration, b) focused on urban centres, and c) that Vancouver has the highest population density. The people are coming, they want to live in cities but there's a catch:

1) we've got massive, non-land costs for building that kept outpacing inflation and wage growth

2) Our property tax rate is low.

3) our land values growth is driving up cost

4) we don't have a big freeway or extra transit capacity and are otherwise constrained by the mountains and water. So land supply is limited and gov't isn't budging on this - this isn't necessarily a bad thing. This is tied to #2 above.

I feel like we have to say to all 3 levels of gov't: pick one or two from the above list and tell us your plan.

The writing is on the wall that this is the top election issue for NDP…but so much of #1-4 is reliant on local gov't.

Jan. 5, 2017, 7:10 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
2016 BC Property Assessment

exactly , I would rather be debt free and work casual , tired of working just to pay bills to exist

.

Here's another take on the same 'problem'…every damn day last year, my house made more than my salary that day. Oh…move the fcuk away from that…. you don't want no part of that…no, move and get some colder winters so you can get on the right side of that insanity…..

Jan. 5, 2017, 6:54 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
TL;DR

TL:DR - entitlement w/homes worth [HTML_REMOVED]$1.3M and saw gains [HTML_REMOVED]25% last year fret over $500…"over to you Sally!"

Dec. 18, 2016, 6:37 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Altitude

I can't tell you what's the best, but I can tell you what I see more than any other modern bike platform when I ride the shore: Rocky Mountain Altitudes. I suspect the owners aren't the ones with high post counts here, but they have the numbers. I own one. It rips up and down with me being the limiting factor. You can't buy one now but I'd bet dollars to donuts you'll read about a revised version at SeaOtter. YMMV.

Dec. 15, 2016, 11:41 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Non Boring Transportation Appliance?

I am in the same boat - want a family vehicle that drives well in the city but also has decent offroad capability (for basic FSR type stuff). The Forester is the vehicle I am most seriously considering but I do wish it were a little bit bigger (basically the size of the outback). I would just get an Outback but I prefer the styling of the Forester. Subaru recently announced that 3 row bigger SUV they are developing but not sure I want to wait 3 years for it to be released.

New Forester has a lot of interior space for the length of the vehicle, and lots of headroom for tall adults (especially if you skip the sunroof). Awesome turning radius and handles really well. I get 10.5L/100km in the city using 86 fuel. Any bigger, and the thing become a handful to park in standard garage, parkade or on city streets, IMO. I mean, go for the extra space, but the trade off is there as it pushes the outer dimension to a category that needs suburbia's bigger parking spaces. For 2017, its a much quieter vehicle and looks way better than pre 2014 model. Compared to my 2008, it is night and day for cabin noise. Compared to the CX5…you can just tell when you close the door or get up to hwy speed that its a more solid vehicle.

Dec. 15, 2016, 11:08 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

wait so are you really expecting the prices to have reset so fast that locals could buy already ??

the one thing i CAN def tell you that has occured is in richmond, were EVERY for sale sign also had a SOLD sticker on it the second the post was planted no longer is the case… there are tons of actual for sale signs…

and my mailbox is no longer flooded with chinese real estate co flyers written in only chinese..

so yea im fukn ecstatic about the tax…. keep it coming, and maybe just maybe locals will finaly be able to live and stay here..

The realtor's are calling for 7.8% price decline in Vancouver prices next year. Does that make all the difference RE: affordability?

Dec. 10, 2016, 1:25 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
new hub$$ and future fear

DT Swiss 350 are amazing bang for buck - 240 guts with regular bearings and slightly heavier shell.

Amazing performer and killer value. Easy to upgrade ratchet drive to higher engagement if you care…

Found my 350s to considerably outlast the many pairs of Hope hubs I owned, with infrequent bearing replacement, and good sealing meaning infrequent strip downs

At the price of 350 you can afford to replace as new fangled standards are dreamt up :)

Agree with this. The only thing that gives me pause about 350's is the M8010. Better engagement than older XT's, decent weight and bearing maintenance that needs now special pullers. Oh, and less than half the price of the competition. And maybe it's just me, but once I tried CL, I find farting around this 6 torx bolts at waste of time.

Dec. 2, 2016, 8:20 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Our new tax

"The country’s strongest economy, British Columbia, shed 9,300 positions, mostly in the services-producing sector. The losses come after the provincial government imposed a tax on foreign housing buyers in an attempt to thwart real estate speculators and cool the housing market. Although the tax has curbed housing sales, it is unknown whether the slowdown was responsible for November’s losses or if it would lead to further declines."

Ok, so job losses 1: affordability 0.

Careful what we ask for, right?

1) Anyone here know someone who can suddenly get into the market now that there's this tax?

2) Anyone here know someone who works in housing construction, real estate or related services that has lost their job or has less work?

If we're only saying 'yes' to #2..what's been achieved here?

This tax is feeling like a Populist measure, akin to claiming of putting mfgr jobs back in the Rust Belt states.

Time will judge this move. We've already judged decision makers for not doing it sooner. So the question becomes: is it better late than never, or meaningless for the well-being of those not directly-exposed to this tax?

Full article here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/canadian-employment-report/article33132064/

Nov. 8, 2016, 6:54 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
NBR Voted 2016 Aftermath

Hope you guys shorted the Peso…

Oct. 5, 2016, 9:54 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

here's the thing, there's demand for new housing, just not at prices inflated by speculators.

A big chunk of the cost of new housing cost is development fees.This is done by local gov't to keep the taxes low for the people that bought in the 70 [HTML_REMOVED] 80's's and still vote them in. If street price corrects and the developer still faces high labour, materials (we are in Canada after all) and soft costs from CityHall, they may not build.

Oct. 4, 2016, 10:35 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
The Decline of Vancouver.

More interesting than that will be what happens with the new mortgage regulations. People put downpayments on pre-sale condos based on pre-approval at today's stress testing, which is based on the lowest lending rate. Meanwhile, when their closing date comes, they will have to requalify at the new regulation, which is based on the 5 year rates. They may not qualify, if they originally maxed out, or what if the condo drops in value between now and closing?

Interesting times ahead for sure.

Many Canadians didn't like the socialization of the risks taken by those who will no longer meet the stress tests. So pain for those risk takers, but they're not the masses who re-elect governments. If lots of condo projects don't get built b/c foreign buyers bail for another jurisdiction, the fall-out to watch for is the trades job losses. BC's economy is hinged on the business of building and selling housing, and we're the #1 provincial economy right now. How scary is that?

Oct. 3, 2016, 12:51 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
Principal residence exemption

So Feds just tossed the principal residence exemption for non-residents. I wonder if this will keep them from bringing in busloads of foreigners from YVR to the Brentwood pre-sales office? What will this do for transactions in process?

Bumpy ride ahead..

Sept. 27, 2016, 8:10 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
How much do you know about financial independence?

So, what was/is your strategy?

Trust fund baby? Billionaire real estate mogul? Day trader/Chipendales dancer by night?

Ladder up condo gains 2003-2009. Buy teardown in RT-4 in EastVan and build on it ~$170/sq ft (when the dollar was high). Move from consulting to position w/defined pension. Take some East Van equity to buy fraser valley rental house in 2014, sell in June 2016. Plow proceeds into TFSA's. Convert deadbeat mutual funds with high MER's into REIT and utility ETF's.

Rest has been a range of plays from Magna (sold on Monday for $42.20) to Neo Lithium (sold at $1.91 to some Gold jrs. Strategy now is to up cash fraction to 25% to be ready for some key stocks to go on sale post election or post Dec rate hike.

My takes:

- if I can't beat my mortgage lender's rate in the TFSA's, I'm doing something wrong. So in no hurry to divert funds for the bear's badge of honour.
- If you hold a stock that did better than SPY last Friday, you're in trouble come rate hike time when the opposite happens. Dump it before Yellen really pulls trigger.

Sept. 26, 2016, 6:31 p.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002
How much do you know about financial independence?

A significant portion of NW is in NV real estate, which has done well, obviously (~159% increase since purchase). 20% down in 2003, and spent 40-60% of annual gross income on mortgage alone, depending on the year. Significant number of bonuses and annual increased to payments reduced a 20 year mortgage to 13 years and we happily burned it in Feb 2016.

Just curious about the decision to put the 40-60% into mortgage. Were you feeling you couldn't beat your lending rates in the S[HTML_REMOVED]P or just had philosophic issue with carry debt? I mean, its awesome that your wages were that much higher than your spending, but at that point, you've got some tough decisions on how to invest especially after the TFSA's came online.

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