Let's not get carried away here. It's dry but not that dry. Saying "I've never seen it this dry" suggests to me that this is your first summer here. We almost always get a two or three week spell of dry weather. Ususlly May is pretty good and June get's damp. Then the first week or two of July becomes dry until mid to late August. September is often dry too. The heat is the unusual thing this year.
But you are right to advise people not to smoke. It's stupid anyway.
Have you been up there lately and looked at the situation first hand? I'm not talking about riding/walking the trails, go off the beaten path and check it out. I was at the top of Fromme where there is still two feet of snow in places. Dry as a bone in the clear areas. The underbrush crackles with every step. Dig down a few inches, and there's still no moisture.
I believe the last closure was back in August of 2003? Tom's image above and the long range forecast leads me to believe a closure is imminent.