COVID-19

Posted by: Fast-Orange

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

This has to be next level trolling on the part of whatever stupid twitter link implied that using computers to model the pandemic is a problem.  I mean seriously - I read that Canaduh is using computers?  WTF

Ya the computer said trillions were gonna die eh old bruv ;)

The computer was thankfully wrong because the scenario we asked it to base its modeling on isn't how we responded in real life.

Can you link to a source for that? That's confusing at best.

As for my trillions comment, I was just ribbing the serfer about an old comment from the ebola thread. You see there was model done that I guess ran one exponent too long bc it stated that trillions would die and ebola isn't Thanos. And serfer just had to keep bringing it up.

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

Dont think I saved the link but apparently Canaduh has been using computers to guides its Corona policies? It's all based on modelling and projections. Is there an actual corona specialist doing some consulting work with either Dr Henry or Dr Tam? I'd say we have another 4.3 weeks until a new "variant" is discovered.

As it should be. Pandemics are math problems. This is why people should not discount the expertise of Bill Gates on this subject.

Lol does he have a math degree from MIT or something? I'd trust the oracle guy over the licensee maven.

Did you know gates Sr was a eugenicist?

There is a lot of division in this world Shogun, but can't we at least agree that Bill Gates is really freaking good at math?  He scored 1590/1600 on his SATs FFS.  That is in the top millionth of all scores.

If he got married he can't be that smrt ;)

Besides, I looked up his scores and his iq kept coming up and hes not that far ahead of me. Gates is thought to be in thr 150 to 160 range where as le Shogun averaged 144 over 6 or so tests but granted those were online tests and not real mensa exams.

Don’t hurt your arm

Posted by: FLATCH

Don’t hurt your arm

My arms are fine from no shots yo!

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

This has to be next level trolling on the part of whatever stupid twitter link implied that using computers to model the pandemic is a problem.  I mean seriously - I read that Canaduh is using computers?  WTF

The problem with computer models is they still require humans to program it and set the parameters. I guess I'm just more of an untrusting realist bc humans could never make a mistake let alone purposely mislead people.

Posted by: DaveM

Could some of this not be a product of the change in reporting stats as well?

As in, you end up in the hospital or ICU for any reason (broken leg, car accident etc) and test positive for Covid, even without symptoms, you are registered as a covid stat. Someone dies, no matter the cause and is covid positive or even tested positive within 30 days of death, it's registered as a covid death.

Welcome back mang!

Posted by: DaveM

Posted by: syncro

For anyone thinking things are over or wondering if we pulled the plug on restrictions too soon.

38% of all of Canada's reported COVID hospitalizations to date have been in the last 4 months

28% of reported ICU admissions of the entire epidemic in the last 4 months (with more coming from current wave)

23% of total reported epidemic deaths, with more coming from this wave.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1520564666216468480

Could some of this not be a product of the change in reporting stats as well?

As in, you end up in the hospital or ICU for any reason (broken leg, car accident etc) and test positive for Covid, even without symptoms, you are registered as a covid stat. Someone dies, no matter the cause and is covid positive or even tested positive within 30 days of death, it's registered as a covid death.

From the BCCDC: 

“As of April 2, 2022, death is defined as an individual who has died, from any cause, within 30 days of a first COVID-19 positive lab result date. Prior to April 2, 2022 death information was collected by Regional Health Authorities and defined as any death related to COVID-19. Comparisons between these time periods are not advised.”

Dunno if that tweeter took that into account or not but that’s a pretty big inconsistency getting in the way of making robust comparisons.

Posted by: tashi

Posted by: DaveM

Posted by: syncro

For anyone thinking things are over or wondering if we pulled the plug on restrictions too soon.

38% of all of Canada's reported COVID hospitalizations to date have been in the last 4 months

28% of reported ICU admissions of the entire epidemic in the last 4 months (with more coming from current wave)

23% of total reported epidemic deaths, with more coming from this wave.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1520564666216468480

Could some of this not be a product of the change in reporting stats as well?

As in, you end up in the hospital or ICU for any reason (broken leg, car accident etc) and test positive for Covid, even without symptoms, you are registered as a covid stat. Someone dies, no matter the cause and is covid positive or even tested positive within 30 days of death, it's registered as a covid death.

From the BCCDC: 

“As of April 2, 2022, death is defined as an individual who has died, from any cause, within 30 days of a first COVID-19 positive lab result date. Prior to April 2, 2022 death information was collected by Regional Health Authorities and defined as any death related to COVID-19. Comparisons between these time periods are not advised.”

Dunno if that tweeter took that into account or not but that’s a pretty big inconsistency getting in the way of making robust comparisons.

And these are the people you guys trust?

Trust the science like the Q tards trusted the plan eh? Ya how'd that work out for 'em.

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

Posted by: chupacabra

There is a lot of division in this world Shogun, but can't we at least agree that Bill Gates is really freaking good at math?  He scored 1590/1600 on his SATs FFS.  That is in the top millionth of all scores.

If he got married he can't be that smrt ;)

Besides, I looked up his scores and his iq kept coming up and hes not that far ahead of me. Gates is thought to be in thr 150 to 160 range where as le Shogun averaged 144 over 6 or so tests but granted those were online tests and not real mensa exams.

His IQ kept coming up?  LOL.  Why would anyone know his IQ?  Do you think it's from a test he actually took that was somehow revealed for all the see?  I took a proper "IQ" test back in high school and it took 3 hours face to face with a trained professional.  They are not even allowed to reveal the results but I know it gave percentiles across a bunch of categories called a proficiency index and didn't present an IQ rating of any kind.

Gates is way smarter than anyone here including you, especially at math.  Top millionth remember.  

Viruses change over time but they are a mathematical problem to solve if society wants to keep infections low.  I think BC did a pretty decent job of tracking this and that why we have decent numbers compared to the rest of Canada and especially compared to the US.  

BC - 621 deaths per million

Canada - 1040 DPM

USA - 3020 DPM

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

And these are the people you guys trust?

Trust the science like the Q tards trusted the plan eh? Ya how'd that work out for 'em.

I suggest you stop making assumptions about what other people believe until they state it explicitly, you’re rarely correct.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/covid-led-15-million-deaths-globally-not-5-million-reported-who-2022-05-05/

Excess death is a powerful measure, I recommend every amateur epidemiologist familiarize themselves with it.

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: syncro

For anyone thinking things are over or wondering if we pulled the plug on restrictions too soon.

38% of all of Canada's reported COVID hospitalizations to date have been in the last 4 months

28% of reported ICU admissions of the entire epidemic in the last 4 months (with more coming from current wave)

23% of total reported epidemic deaths, with more coming from this wave.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1520564666216468480

How many in the last 2 months?  The last 4 months includes the massive spike over Xmas.  

We pulled the plug when we needed to and we can put the plug back in if we have to.  If hospitalization and infection rates are low enough why have them?

I don't know the numbers in the last two months. I'm just sharing the tweet that someone else I know, who has been watching things closely and I believe is friends with people in the independent modeling group and has greater concerns than most of us due to a recent kidney transplant. It's a point I brought up a while back that the abandoning of restrictions/orders has put some people at greater risk. At the beginning it seemed most here were all for the precautions in terms of protecting society, etc, but now it seems those who are more vulnerable just have to suck it up and take care of themselves. It's interesting and somewhat predictable to see the shifts in societal attitudes over the course of this thing from a psychological perspective.

- As for hospitalization and infections rates being low enough, we had 42 people die last week.

- Infection numbers aren't reflecting the current situation as testing has dropped off to basically nothing, yet wastewater treatment collection data shows us being equal to the peak of the 5th wave.

- Reporting of deaths in BC has been noted to be artificially low and BC's actual death count is estimated to be much higher than what's being reported.

- Reporting of our numbers has been challenged as artificially low for quite some time now due to various reasons, including the way the data is categorized and problems within our health care's IT systems

- Not sure where DaveM is getting his info from, but it seems to conflict with info I've seen

I see BC as trying to play a dance between economy/normalcy an "acceptable" level of infection/hospitalization/deaths. Things could be worse than what they are, but it seems that they could also be better. I had a friend who got sick with covid a couple weeks ago, not sick enough to go to the hospital but sick enough to feel like crap. They figure they got infected on a Friday evening at family and friends gathering, I took them out for dinner Sat, Sun they started to feel a bit under the weather and by Mon they were sick. Their first test (Tue) was negative (nasal swab) but their second test (Thu) was positive. I got tested and was negative, but realistically if I had caught it I would have been sick by that time and figured I was neg anyway.

Re excess deaths is a good thing, but there are many variable to consider that could skew the numbers up in some areas and down in others, ie flu deaths are way down (due to protective measures) but people may be having health complications in other areas from not getting out to see their physicians or not having access to one.

At the end of the day I don't think there is a simple solution or answer for it all due to the wide range of variables to consider, however limiting your number of social interactions, practicing physical distancing and yes wearing masks (effectively) all combined seem to offer a decent level of protection.

We simply have no idea what the case counts are anymore, but the hospitalization and death numbers are showing that cases are on the rise again. We may need to go back into restrictions again. I hope not. I miss summer crowds, but it is what it is.

I am curious why BC's death numbers would be so skewed. How bad do they think it is? They would have to be missing 1 in 3 deaths from COVID just to get us to the national average and that is assuming only BC is under counting.

As for the psychology the big difference is that most of the hospitalizations today are people choosing to not vaccinate. There are not that many examples of vulnerable groups that can't take the vaccine.

Posted by: chupacabra

As for the psychology the big difference is that most of the hospitalizations today are people choosing to not vaccinate. There are not that many examples of vulnerable groups that can't take the vaccine.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. While the unvaccinated are more likely to require hospitalization they no longer make up the majority of hospitalizations or deaths. I'd guess you can chalk that up to waning vaccination efficacy and co-morbidities that affect the efficacy of the vaccinations.

EDIT: and the fact that with so many people having been vaxed the numbers can no longer skew highly towards the unvaxed. This raises serious questions about the efficacy of the current vaccinations against future variants and the longevity of the vaccinations. Initially the thinking was that maybe a yearly jab - similar to flu shots - would suffice but now it seems that 2-3 times a year might be required. If that is the case then it's probably time to review the vaccinations that are being used.

Apparently there is a new vaccine in the works, but they will have to update it as fast as COVID updates itself if they want that sweet 95% efficacy that they got with COVID Classic.  

One thing that I don't quite understand though is why and where people are drawing the line on too many vaccines.  Is it due to the risk or the hassle or the pain?  If it was 3 times a year and I could get the flu shot and whatever else I needed at the same time I would be OK with that.  I popped into the drug store inside of Nesters and did some shopping during my 15 wait period.  Easy peasy.  I know some people that were very pro vaccine in the beginning that are now like '2 boosters??  Fuck you!"