COVID-19

I’d expand your idea of what the news is actually reporting on this. NY Times and Washington Post have nothing been posting “positive” articles in the development of vaccines as well as herd immunity levels. 

The “MSM is just interested in fear” is a tempting line to go for (because there’s some truth there and the reality of this is hard to handle) but it’s a total cop out.

Oh, I thought herd immunity was a bullshit. Remember the Sweden bashing? ;)

Posted by: Kieran

Oh, I thought herd immunity was a bullshit. Remember the Sweden bashing? ;)

No, herd immunity is a very real concept supported by science.  But Sweden's path to herd immunity was paved with corpses.

Yeah they fucked up. The science guy in charge admitted that fairly early on, they didn't shield the sick and old quickly enough.

I certainly got a bashing for highlighting Swedens approach tho.

Tashi said it best I think.  This is a moving target of what we know and do not know.  If you are faced with making decisions based on incomplete data and unknowns that point to a lot of people dying you should probably be cautious.  America is a perfect example of not taking the pandemic seriously.  Tell me something Kieran, without the doom and gloom would people have accepted the shutdown here that definitely saved many lives?  The governors in the US that had their states get hammered well after they should have known better listened primarily to those other sources you talk about and took stupid risks and their constituents paid the price.  

In Sweden, I think they fucked up, but they also have a compliant populace that listened to the experts.  The same approach in America would have been even more devastating than it has been.  

The bottom line, if you are a leader faced with an unknown enemy that experts have shown may kill a massive amount of people you MUST mount a matching counteroffensive for the worst-case scenario.  You MUST take it seriously as a credible threat.  If you are wrong you wasted money, but if you decide to look at the positive side and plan based on that and you are wrong you waste a lot of lives (Trump).  Sweden decided to gamble on getting to herd immunity when they had absolutely no idea how many people need the antibodies to pull that off and in the end they didn't save their economy from the same suffering elsewhere.  By any measure, it was a failure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ifump9/man_reinfected_with_virus_after_four_months

Looks like Sweden is going to be waiting a long time for that herd immunity.

Posted by: tungsten

So, guy in China just got re-infected.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/24/first-covid-19-reinfection-documented-in-hong-kong-researchers-say/

Don't try and steal RM's thunder.  ;)

Posted by: chupacabra

Tashi said it best I think. This is a moving target of what we know and do not know. If you are faced with making decisions based on incomplete data and unknowns that point to a lot of people dying you should probably be cautious. America is a perfect example of not taking the pandemic seriously. Tell me something Kieran, without the doom and gloom would people have accepted the shutdown here that definitely saved many lives? The governors in the US that had their states get hammered well after they should have known better listened primarily to those other sources you talk about and took stupid risks and their constituents paid the price.

In Sweden, I think they fucked up, but they also have a compliant populace that listened to the experts. The same approach in America would have been even more devastating than it has been.

The bottom line, if you are a leader faced with an unknown enemy that experts have shown may kill a massive amount of people you MUST mount a matching counteroffensive for the worst-case scenario. You MUST take it seriously as a credible threat. If you are wrong you wasted money, but if you decide to look at the positive side and plan based on that and you are wrong you waste a lot of lives (Trump). Sweden decided to gamble on getting to herd immunity when they had absolutely no idea how many people need the antibodies to pull that off and in the end they didn't save their economy from the same suffering elsewhere. By any measure, it was a failure.

I've never had a problem with the shutdown. I had concerns with the severity of the shutdowns based on the relationship with the economy / mental health / usual health issues.

Luckily here it wasn't for a long period and I think the BC gov struck the right balance. However, I think a part of our luck came from the general health / age / compliance of the population.

I said the USA would suffer due to the health industry and general health of the vast majority of the population. Then throw on top of that how political it got = shitshow.

From what I've read, Sweden, apart from their initial failings, seem to be fairing as well as other European Countries ATM. No spike unlike France, Spain and Germany.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

But yeah, if reinfection can happen then what?

Sweden is 8th worst worldwide when you sort the worldometers country list by deaths/million.  USA is 10th worst.  True, there are 4 other Euro countries that are worse still, but it could be argued that those countries were amongst the first hit, so had little info to work with in developing a policy before things got out of hand.  There are other factors of course, such as population compliance, age, health issues.

But compared to their peers (other Scandinavian countries), Sweden is in a stewpot of shit.

I would expect Sweden would be doing similar to other Euro countries now since they are all in a similar phase without lockdowns, but I think their death rate would have been much lower if they took more measures, like mask wearing for instance, at the beginning. It is hard to know what the right answer is, but I think the next test will come this fall, especially in northern climates as the weather turns and the kids go back to school. If it couples with a bad flu season going for herd immunity could backfire horribly but I think that countries that are suffering from earlier shutdowns will try and go for it.

The world is a giant viral experiment.

Posted by: chupacabra

I would expect Sweden would be doing similar to other Euro countries now since they are all in a similar phase without lockdowns, but I think their death rate would have been much lower if they took more measures, like mask wearing for instance, at the beginning. It is hard to know what the right answer is, but I think the next test will come this fall, especially in northern climates as the weather turns and the kids go back to school. If it couples with a bad flu season going for herd immunity could backfire horribly but I think that countries that are suffering from earlier shutdowns will try and go for it.

The world is a giant viral experiment.

Posted by: KenN

Sweden is 8th worst worldwide when you sort the worldometers country list by deaths/million. USA is 10th worst. True, there are 4 other Euro countries that are worse still, but it could be argued that those countries were amongst the first hit, so had little info to work with in developing a policy before things got out of hand. There are other factors of course, such as population compliance, age, health issues.

But compared to their peers (other Scandinavian countries), Sweden is in a stewpot of shit.

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But new cases in Sweden have remained pretty consistent for the last month with numbers well below 500 per day (averaging around 300 per day).

While today for example, New cases - Spain = 2,415, Germany = 1225 and France = 3,304. And Denmark, Netherlands, Finland are also now seeing new cases rise.

So are all those European countries just going to catch up with Swedens record in the long run? I believe they were 5th worst in deaths per population a few weeks back so they have dropped 3 places.

Is it just going to be a circle of lockdowns, follwed by reopening, followed by case rises etc etc etc. That doesn't sound great for anyones mental welbeing.

I'm dreading Fall. My kids usually return from school within the first 2 weeks with a cold. It's going to be a long Winter I fear.

Posted by: tashi

I’d expand your idea of what the news is actually reporting on this. NY Times and Washington Post have nothing been posting “positive” articles in the development of vaccines as well as herd immunity levels. 

The “MSM is just interested in fear” is a tempting line to go for (because there’s some truth there and the reality of this is hard to handle) but it’s a total cop out.

Question for the herd immunity crowd:

Doesnt a pandemic level contagion, somethings that been described as 'everyone will get it' provide a level of herd immunity through base exposure? What is it now - a 99.97% survival rate? And you guys are already lining up in your heads for it?