COVID-19

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

https://www.ft.com/content/e26c93a0-90e7-4dec-a796-3e25e94bc59b

Asian countries and China in particular pursued Covid-zero.  The transmission of Omicron absolutely blew that approach to shit.  I don’t see that as predictive of things to come in Canada, I think they’re lagging our numbers.

I think that graph title is somewhat misleading as the mortality of covid has actually gotten worse and it's only immunity (mainly via vaccinations) that has helped lower it (yeah, yeah, semantics). It misses that the virus itself has gotten more lethal.  The covid zero thing is interesting, as I think it can be a worthy pursuit. I see it as having multiple benefits; it would help protect those who are immunocompromised, protect those who choose not to vaccinate, and more/most importantly help prevent the rise of variants. The big caveat is that this would hinge on very high uptake of vaccinations.

So it’s more lethal (source please). But we’re vaccinated, so it’s not.

Got it.

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

So it’s more lethal (source please). But we’re vaccinated, so it’s not.

Got it.

C'mon man - nuance. 

The emerging variants trended more lethal (not with omicron thankfully), but we have better measures now to protect ourselves than when it first arrived. We can separate the mortality of the virus from the protective measures against it while at the same time discussing the overall effects of the variant of the day. WE have no idea how bad the next variant will be. RE source, delta was more lethal than previous variants and we saw that with the way hospital wards filled up and the number of people who died. There are a tone of articles to pick from if you really want one.

So you’re saying that we should look at our collective protection measures against current variants? I agree. Hence why vaccination rate of population is important.  Nuance man.  

Delta was more lethal. Omicron? Not that I’ve seen/read. More transmissible, certainly. Typically, these things trend less lethal as killing hosts is bad for the virus from a competition point of view.

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

So you’re saying that we should look at our collective protection measures against current variants? I agree. Hence why vaccination rate of population is important.  Nuance man.  

Delta was more lethal. Omicron? Not that I’ve seen/read. More transmissible, certainly. Typically, these things trend less lethal as killing hosts is bad for the virus from a competition point of view.

Can I throw an additional monkey wrench into this.  How lethal is the flu in fully COVID vaccinated people?  They show it as a straight line based on historical data but the flu shot offered some COVID protection, it could work both ways.  The flu night be much less lethal these days as well, making Omicron still more lethal.  Not that it matters.

Mortality is a defined term in population biology. It’s how many deaths result in a population due to a disease. If for some reason you want to eliminate immunity from the picture, you’ll need to take that mortality rate and correct for vaccination and previous exposure status.

“I think that graph title is somewhat misleading as the mortality of covid has actually gotten worse and it's only immunity (mainly via vaccinations) that has helped lower it (yeah, yeah, semantics). It misses that the virus itself has gotten more lethal.”

Your semantic distinction is incorrect.  Mortality is a defined term in population biology. It’s how many deaths result in a population due to a disease. If for some reason you want to eliminate immunity from the picture, you’ll need to take that mortality rate and correct for vaccination and previous exposure status.

Listening to some reporting about the Shanghai lockdown. 

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/209-front-burner/episode/15906437-life-under-lockdown-in-shanghai

I've been to Shanghai.  It's an impressive city with 25+ million people that seemed impossibly large to me.  I can't even imagine trying to lock it down, it's just surreal.

Posted by: tashi

“I think that graph title is somewhat misleading as the mortality of covid has actually gotten worse and it's only immunity (mainly via vaccinations) that has helped lower it (yeah, yeah, semantics). It misses that the virus itself has gotten more lethal.”

Your semantic distinction is incorrect.  Mortality is a defined term in population biology. It’s how many deaths result in a population due to a disease. If for some reason you want to eliminate immunity from the picture, you’ll need to take that mortality rate and correct for vaccination and previous exposure status.

Yeah, I think i was misusing lethal and mortality and like you say not using mortality in the correct semse. Although TBH who knows what I was thinking for sure, middle aged depression and all that - lol. So re mortality. what seems to have happened is that while delta was more likely to kill people and omicron was less deadly, omicron was more infectious so in the end the mortality rate seemed to not change. Of course perceptions might be off because it seems people have become indifferent or complacent due to two years of constant covid news. Part of that is probably the mixed messaging from govt and news that has happened as well. In general, I think the media has done a sub-par job and their credibility has taken a hit. I know I'm paying much less attention to covid news unless it's something I need to know for work, but I'm still putting a mask on when I go to the store and consider how I interact with friends when we hang out. On that front, it seems familiarity breeds some complacency as well. Who knows, that may all changes with the 6th wave. 

One thing for sure is that it's still strange seeing chats from people who think all the restrictions are nonsense and that we're being fed a lot of lies. However, when you ask them straight up if they think that no precautions would have been better and then at what point  (in terms of mortality) they should have been brought in nobody dares give an answer to that. Some people think we should have done nothing but won't even discuss when it would be ok to do something - it's weird.

Couch, re the lockdown thing, greater social cohesion, more authoritarianism and less value on the importance of freedom probably all play a role in keeping a city of 25mil controlled.

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

Listening to some reporting about the Shanghai lockdown. 

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/209-front-burner/episode/15906437-life-under-lockdown-in-shanghai

I've been to Shanghai.  It's an impressive city with 25+ million people that seemed impossibly large to me.  I can't even imagine trying to lock it down, it's just surreal.

There's a video on Twitter of a very unhappy resident talking to someone about how can people live if they can't get food. Could try to find again if you or anyone is interested.

Charlie Smith writing in the Georgia Straight is one of the few journalists who resonate with my thinking on the approach that BC is taking to the latest COVID issues.  There have been a few sensible articles recently, but this one is struck a chord for me.  It truly is time to find someone to approach the data with a clear scientific approach rather than political expediency, oh wait, yes there's the BC Green Party leader, Sonia Furstenau who seems to have it sorted. Wonder who I will vote for come next election?

https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pandemic/news/mask-mandates-fickle-ndp-voters-and-2001-bc-election-debacle

I just don't get what is so hard/challenging about wearing a mask when in enclosed spaces to protect those around you.  

Of course it could be that he just has the right frequency to reverberate in my personal echo chamber.

Posted by: GreyHead

Charlie Smith writing in the Georgia Straight is one of the few journalists who resonate with my thinking on the approach that BC is taking to the latest COVID issues. There have been a few sensible articles recently, but this one is struck a chord for me. It truly is time to find someone to approach the data with a clear scientific approach rather than political expediency, oh wait, yes there's the BC Green Party leader, Sonia Furstenau who seems to have it sorted. Wonder who I will vote for come next election?

https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pandemic/news/mask-mandates-fickle-ndp-voters-and-2001-bc-election-debacle

I just don't get what is so hard/challenging about wearing a mask when in enclosed spaces to protect those around you.

Of course it could be that he just has the right frequency to reverberate in my personal echo chamber.

Wearing a mask isn't that challenging. I see a lot of people doing it. Distancing too!

If we're cautious enough then BC can avoid the rapidly rising hospitalizations happening in some other provinces.

Posted by: GreyHead

I just don't get what is so hard/challenging about wearing a mask when in enclosed spaces to protect those around you.  

While this particular aspect of covid is nearly a year and half old, I'll just say there isnt a challenge other than letting bygones be bygones.

I believe at the time of your posting, the provincial mask mandate was lifted? With 90% of BC vaccinated (defined as 2 shots), was your post rhetorical and I missed it since 90% of people are protected (protected defined by the old definition of "vaccine")?

Perhaps this semi triggered me because its such an odd thing to bring up at this stage. Odd as in we've beat that subject like a whoaa I cant say that.

Dont think I saved the link but apparently Canaduh has been using computers to guides its Corona policies? It's all based on modelling and projections. Is there an actual corona specialist doing some consulting work with either Dr Henry or Dr Tam? I'd say we have another 4.3 weeks until a new "variant" is discovered.