Trump.

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: switch

As we heard so often during Obama's tenure and especially the 2016 election campaign, those numbers are fake and completely inaccurate.  The real rate is more like ten percent...

maybe/probably, but if the population believes it to be true that's all that matters.

The unemployment rate and the presidential election results don't go hand in hand as much as you might think.  The direction of the rate has a more direct link, but it is not much better at predicting outcomes.  So unemployment numbers could be low in 2020, but worse than 2016 and that would work against most incumbents and Trump started at a decent rate.  I know "it's the economy stupid" is the prevailing wisdom, but this is Trump.  I don't think traditional ways of calculating his odds of re-election provide much of a clue for 2020 any more than in 2016.  HRC had a great economy to run on.   Most of the usual news about the economy or other predictors is currently buried under the weight of the Trump dog and pony show and don't see that changing much in the next couple of years.

Posted by: chupacabra

The unemployment rate and the presidential election results don't go hand in hand as much as you might think.  The direction of the rate has a more direct link, but it is not much better at predicting outcomes.  So unemployment numbers could be low in 2020, but worse than 2016 and that would work against most incumbents and Trump started at a decent rate.  I know "it's the economy stupid" is the prevailing wisdom, but this is Trump.  I don't think traditional ways of calculating his odds of re-election provide much of a clue for 2020 any more than in 2016.  HRC had a great economy to run on.   Most of the usual news about the economy or other predictors is currently buried under the weight of the Trump dog and pony show and don't see that changing much in the next couple of years.

all I'm saying is that if the economy is chugging along it's harder to knock off the incumbent. but hey, nobody thought he would win the nomination never mind the presidency, right?

Posted by: switch

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: chupacabra

Which economy? Trump's base doesn't invest in the NASDAQ and as far as I can tell there has been no improvement in the lives of the rural American worker. If Trump holds strong on his trade war this will only get worse, but even if he doesn't, do you see him pulling off an economic resurgence in rural America? I really don't. The left is energized by their hate of Trump and I don't see that subsiding either, even if the economy stays steady. And none of this is even taking into account what the effect of the investigation will be.  We don't even know what Cohen has on tape, but I am guessing the recent release was intended to give Trump a taste of what he has.

2020 is a long way down the road, but his trajectory is far from ideal.

the unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in quite some time and sits close to 2% points below historical averages.

As we heard so often during Obama's tenure and especially the 2016 election campaign, those numbers are fake and completely inaccurate.  The real rate is more like ten percent...

Canadians are fakers too ya' know.....

We find similar patterns elsewhere. In Canada, the official unemployment rate held at 5.8 percent in April, the lowest it has been since 1976, although there was a slight decrease in the number of people working in March, mainly due to job losses in wholesale and retail trade and construction. What is the actual unemployment rate? According to Statistics Canada’s R8 figure, it is 8.6 percent. The R8 counts count people in part-time work, including those wanting full-time work, as “full-time equivalents,” thus underestimating the number of under-employed.

At the end of 2012, the R8 figure was 9.4 percent, but an analysis published by The Globe and Mail analyzing unemployment estimated the true unemployment rate for that year to be 14.2 percent. If the current statistical miscalculation is proportionate, then the true Canadian unemployment rate currently must be north of 13 percent. “[T]he narrow scope of the Canadian measure significantly understates labour underutilization,” the Globe and Mail analysis conclude. 

Similar to its southern neighbor, Canada’s labor force participation rate has steadily declined, falling to 65.4 percent in April 2018 from a high of 67.7 percent in 2003.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/06/08/hiding-the-real-number-of-unemployed/

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: chupacabra

The unemployment rate and the presidential election results don't go hand in hand as much as you might think.  The direction of the rate has a more direct link, but it is not much better at predicting outcomes.  So unemployment numbers could be low in 2020, but worse than 2016 and that would work against most incumbents and Trump started at a decent rate.  I know "it's the economy stupid" is the prevailing wisdom, but this is Trump.  I don't think traditional ways of calculating his odds of re-election provide much of a clue for 2020 any more than in 2016.  HRC had a great economy to run on.   Most of the usual news about the economy or other predictors is currently buried under the weight of the Trump dog and pony show and don't see that changing much in the next couple of years.

all I'm saying is that if the economy is chugging along it's harder to knock off the incumbent. but hey, nobody thought he would win the nomination never mind the presidency, right?

The Russian factor is hard to work into the equation.  ;)

Posted by: tungsten

Canadians are fakers too ya' know.....

I am not surprised.  They need a better metric for employment, like a ratio of hours worked to the population at working age or something like it.  We should also stop pretending the stock market is a meaningful metric while we are at it.

The new Trump cartoon had its moments.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mRQtNgHUzQs

US economy is booming.

US unemployment rate is at an all time low.

Republicans passed and enacted big tax cut that will stimulate the economy even more.

Meanwhile the projected US deficit for 2019 is a trillion dollars...

Posted by: switch

US economy is booming.

US unemployment rate is at an all time low.

Republicans passed and enacted big tax cut that will stimulate the economy even more.

Meanwhile the projected US deficit for 2019 is a trillion dollars...

I think the tax cuts have mainly done their thing and a lot of economists predict a recession soon.  The funny thing is that Trump has stamped his name on any and all good news on the economic front and claimed the economy for himself, so even though the recession was overdue when he was elected he will have a tough time blaming Obama.

can a pres or PM really change the course of the economy or is more from outside influences over which they have no control ?

except of course in alberta where everything especialy the world price of oil is ratchel notleys fault

Posted by: XXX_er

can a pres or PM really change the course of the economy or is more from outside influences over which they have no control ?

except of course in alberta where everything especialy the world price of oil is ratchel notleys fault

I don't fully know the answer to this but I am willing to bet their impact is a fraction of what most people think it is, especially the politicians themselves.

Posted by: chupacabra

They need a better metric for employment, like a ratio of hours worked to the population at working age or something like it.  We should also stop pretending the stock market is a meaningful metric while we are at it.

More than just employment, there needs to be a better measure of a nation's success.  GDP is a failure, because all it does is measure money spent as a whole by any given country.  So, money spent to support military, firefighting, cleaning up oil spills, etc, all get added into the GDP.  Progressive economists like Joseph Stiglitz and Thomas Piketty propose other methods of measurement, like Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), Sustainable Development Index (SDI) or Indices of Wellbeing/Happiness.  These take into account health, happiness, income inequality and wealth distribution, and can also include expenditures, but generally won't include money spend on "negative" impacts.

Posted by: KenN

Posted by: chupacabra

They need a better metric for employment, like a ratio of hours worked to the population at working age or something like it.  We should also stop pretending the stock market is a meaningful metric while we are at it.

More than just employment, there needs to be a better measure of a nation's success.  GDP is a failure, because all it does is measure money spent as a whole by any given country.  So, money spent to support military, firefighting, cleaning up oil spills, etc, all get added into the GDP.  Progressive economists like Joseph Stiglitz and Thomas Piketty propose other methods of measurement, like Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), Sustainable Development Index (SDI) or Indices of Wellbeing/Happiness.  These take into account health, happiness, income inequality and wealth distribution, and can also include expenditures, but generally won't include money spend on "negative" impacts.

I don't know KenN, that sounds like a lot of hippy fake news.  Everyone knows Stiglitz and Piketty are communists.  /s

Posted by: XXX_er

can a pres or PM really change the course of the economy or is more from outside influences over which they have no control ?

Sometimes, like when a country pumps a trillion dollars into the economy, like the USA did with TARP.

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: aShogunNamedMarcus

You guys need to come up with some new stuff.

Sorry, but you are the one that needs new material.

Nobody, even Chuck, and Nancy think Trump approached the Russians for help or that he orchestrated a conspiracy. He is the useful idiot for the Russians. This is their plan. STRAWMAN

The intelligence community has not come out to say the meddling didn't affect the election. LIES

The US interferes in elections! DISTRACTION

same ol' same

I'll just skip that merry go round and bring up Cohens tapes, which I havent read anything other than there are tapes.

Do you think he'd be alive if he had those and do you think Trump would let him make those tapes because as a Russian asset, Trump most likely would have a different lawyer as the prized Russian asset would have some intel working FOR HIM and Cohen probably would be Novochok'd by now if they had evidence of him going against the Russian master plan. To be clearer, you think the evilist most caniving KGB master ever would let a lawyer fuck it all up?

Your dog dont hunt from my angle.

Well we know Browder still lives, so Putin can't kill everyone. Besides, the FBI has the tapes and killing Cohen doesn't make that go away and if Putin did kill him, especially if it was done in a very Russian way, like poison, that would be terrible for Trump. He can't even fire Mueller because he is scared of the backlash. What happens if witnesses against him start getting wacked? I am guessing there would be significant political fallout.

I think the backlash he's afraid is called a Civil War for firing Mueller. He wouldnt be wrong or a dictator if he did either but tonnes of the looney tunes left would go ballistic.

If witnesses against Trump, Putin or Mueller start getting whacked? I'd say whoever is doing the whacking learned from the Clintons IF they get away with it ;)

BTW - what you state as bolded LIES above is actually the elephant in the IC room. The IC would have to admit it has been and still is spying domestically on the US. Otherwise, thats a hard thing to quantify. Buuuut one of my favorite BHO memes might hint at it...