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The Decline of Vancouver.

Dec. 2, 2016, 10:45 a.m.
Posts: 14115
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

"The country’s strongest economy, British Columbia, shed 9,300 positions, mostly in the services-producing sector. The losses come after the provincial government imposed a tax on foreign housing buyers in an attempt to thwart real estate speculators and cool the housing market. Although the tax has curbed housing sales, it is unknown whether the slowdown was responsible for November’s losses or if it would lead to further declines."

Ok, so job losses 1: affordability 0.

Careful what we ask for, right?

1) Anyone here know someone who can suddenly get into the market now that there's this tax?

2) Anyone here know someone who works in housing construction, real estate or related services that has lost their job or has less work?

If we're only saying 'yes' to #2..what's been achieved here?

This tax is feeling like a Populist measure, akin to claiming of putting mfgr jobs back in the Rust Belt states.

Time will judge this move. We've already judged decision makers for not doing it sooner. So the question becomes: is it better late than never, or meaningless for the well-being of those not directly-exposed to this tax?

Full article here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/canadian-employment-report/article33132064/

wait so are you really expecting the prices to have reset so fast that locals could buy already ??

the one thing i CAN def tell you that has occured is in richmond, were EVERY for sale sign also had a SOLD sticker on it the second the post was planted no longer is the case… there are tons of actual for sale signs…

and my mailbox is no longer flooded with chinese real estate co flyers written in only chinese..

so yea im fukn ecstatic about the tax…. keep it coming, and maybe just maybe locals will finaly be able to live and stay here..

Dec. 2, 2016, 12:35 p.m.
Posts: 0
Joined: Sept. 20, 2006

Worse comes to worse, we'll just ditch our skill set with wood and concrete, and move towards developing a new trade skill on steel pipelines instead…

Oh… Canada…

Diversification is the answer. Hedging your bets on one source of revenue is a risky move no matter the source.

My brother is a project manager for a small developer. He said there was a shortage of tradesmen/women to fulfill the demand to the point that the people being hired and the work being done was of questionable quality. If demand drops, I don't think the impact will be as catastrophic as some will cry it to be.

Dec. 2, 2016, 2:34 p.m.
Posts: 3600
Joined: Sept. 27, 2004

Diversification is the answer. Hedging your bets on one source of revenue is a risky move no matter the source.

My brother is a project manager for a small developer. He said there was a shortage of tradesmen/women to fulfill the demand to the point that the people being hired and the work being done was of questionable quality. If demand drops, I don't think the impact will be as catastrophic as some will cry it to be.

I've seen this first hand myself. The quality of trades people have taken a huge dive. The industry needs to slow down abit, to return to a higher level of proficiency.

"X is for x-ray. If you've been bikin' and you haven't had an x-ray, you ain't goin' hard enough." - Bob Roll

Dec. 15, 2016, 11:08 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002

wait so are you really expecting the prices to have reset so fast that locals could buy already ??

the one thing i CAN def tell you that has occured is in richmond, were EVERY for sale sign also had a SOLD sticker on it the second the post was planted no longer is the case… there are tons of actual for sale signs…

and my mailbox is no longer flooded with chinese real estate co flyers written in only chinese..

so yea im fukn ecstatic about the tax…. keep it coming, and maybe just maybe locals will finaly be able to live and stay here..

The realtor's are calling for 7.8% price decline in Vancouver prices next year. Does that make all the difference RE: affordability?

NSMBA member.

Dec. 15, 2016, 11:16 a.m.
Posts: 429
Joined: Feb. 28, 2005

Prices finally dropping?

Let's add some more gas to the fire.

Dec. 15, 2016, 11:54 a.m.
Posts: 11585
Joined: June 4, 2008

They keep finding new ways to appease their biggest party donors.

Dec. 15, 2016, 12:17 p.m.
Posts: 133
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Dec. 15, 2016, 12:28 p.m.
Posts: 0
Joined: Dec. 27, 2002

Its going to take a generation for prices to normalize. Interest rates have begun their long steady grind upwards which could take a decade. Add in people locking in mortgages for 5 years at a time, the current crop of people locked out of the housing market due to these stupid prices are in purgatory.

Those that didn't sell 6 months ago missed out on a lottery. But i get it, its a hassle to sell and cash out then have to find a new place and deal with the unknowns.


WTF! we dont need more measures to access cheap money! What a contradiction - force people to qualify at higher rates limiting the amount you can borrow, and then now this - helping poor people who cant save enough for a down payment to get in the market.

And us the taxpayer is flipping the bill for the interest free loan. Unbelievably stupid.

Dec. 15, 2016, 12:31 p.m.
Posts: 6449
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Prices finally dropping?

Let's add some more gas to the fire.

wow that's quite something. Prices across BC probably just went up %10+ when that hit the press, houses for everyone! I wonder if I can retroactively apply for this thing after sweating my ass off for years to save for a down payment..lol.

I'm predicting a massive economic crisis in 5 years time when everyone who jumped on board realizes they actually, you know, have to pay back this loan.

Dec. 15, 2016, 12:39 p.m.
Posts: 1024
Joined: Feb. 5, 2011

Why would the government give out loans for down payments? Isn't the fundamental point of a down payment to prove (to yourself, and to the bank) that you will be able to pay your mortgage?

Dec. 15, 2016, 1:02 p.m.
Posts: 1915
Joined: Nov. 21, 2002

They keep finding new ways to appease their biggest party donors.

This +10000000

This announcement is a combination of a few things … the confirmation that BC's GDP is in large part driven by real estate and construction, that the Liberal party donors call the shots, and that there's an election coming up next spring.

:canada: :england:

Dec. 15, 2016, 1:12 p.m.
Posts: 1570
Joined: Aug. 6, 2009

I'm predicting a massive economic crisis in 5 years time when everyone who jumped on board realizes they actually, you know, have to pay back this loan.

That's the first thing I thought… it sets up a false economy where people think that they can afford it, but then the bill comes due, likely at the same time they'll be renewing their mortgage at a higher rate, and then the cash flow reality hits.

Dec. 15, 2016, 1:13 p.m.
Posts: 14588
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

Its going to take a generation for prices to normalize. Interest rates have begun their long steady grind upwards which could take a decade. Add in people locking in mortgages for 5 years at a time, the current crop of people locked out of the housing market due to these stupid prices are in purgatory.

Those that didn't sell 6 months ago missed out on a lottery. But i get it, its a hassle to sell and cash out then have to find a new place and deal with the unknowns.


WTF! we dont need more measures to access cheap money! What a contradiction - force people to qualify at higher rates limiting the amount you can borrow, and then now this - helping poor people who cant save enough for a down payment to get in the market.

And us the taxpayer is flipping the bill for the interest free loan. Unbelievably stupid.

this^^^

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/interest-free-home-loans-bc-1.3897832

the problem has been a combo of no control on foreign ownership and the banks/gov fucking with the lending rules and this is just more fucking with the lending rules

we still haven't sold moms condo … I think a new price is in order

Dec. 15, 2016, 1:44 p.m.
Posts: 6449
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

helping poor people who cant save enough for a down payment to get in the market.

Household combined income of under $150k isn't exactly "poor" people - that means buddy making 6 figures with a stay at home wife who blew all his money on truck and toy payments for the past bunch of years can now get my taxpayer dollars to help him out of a completely foreseeable housing crisis.

Also, must be a BC resident for 1 year… (so all the albertans who fled their precious oil market and moved to BC when it shit the bed can qualify to borrow taxpayer money here actually making it less affordable for long time residents of communities across the province).

This doesn't really help the poor out - yes, the poorer demographic might qualify to borrow the 5% or $37.5k for a down payment, but without a good paying job will likely not qualify for an actual mortgage. I know this because I don't have a particularly high income and qualifying for a regular mortgage was difficult so I had to learn to be better with money, scrimp and save for years to come up with a 20% down payment to get out of regular CMHC requirement. 35% actually, because I bought raw land but that was my own choice really.

Dec. 15, 2016, 2:18 p.m.
Posts: 955
Joined: Oct. 23, 2006

I'll just pretend I quoted all today's post and say ^^^this x1000.

Free money? I thought money was virtually free at 2.35%, but at zero % it really is free. In fact unless we have deflation, they are paying you to take their money. But only to those who want to buy into a bubble. This is going to end in tears. But when, I don't know. So many cans getting kicked down the road, it's impossible to know where it will end.

House is for sale. Looks like I'm going to get an offer written on it after client gets back from Xmas break according to the realtor. I'll believe it when I see it, but really, what do you do next? Stocks are at all time highs for no good reason, so won't be putting it there. Rents are at all time highs, so if the can keeps getting kicked for another 3 years, there's $75K in rent gone while waiting for a correction. If it takes another 5 years that's $150K in rent for a townhouse around here. Unless you own actual physical gold, you may lose it in a financial crisis, and you can't sell large quantities of physical without melting it down first. GIC's are negative accounting for inflation. It's no wonder people are piling into stocks and real estate as there's nowhere else to protect your wealth, but at some point both are going to crater. 1 year? 5 years? If it takes 5 years, it could go up another 40%, and then just reverse 30% and you just lost $150K in rent during that period for no good reason. Same theory for stocks. Stay out and wait for the correction that doesn't come until dow 25,000 and it goes back to 21,000.

I strongly believe that shit's going to get ugly at some point, but I still wonder if buying a townhouse instead of renting may be the best choice if I manage to sell the house. This makes me think that the majority of people who don't think it's going to get ugly will think buying a TH is the best choice especially with free money. Ok, stream of consciousness typing has revealed… buy a townhouse; they are about to go up, up, up. To the moon, baby!

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