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The Decline of Vancouver.

April 21, 2016, 10:34 p.m.
Posts: 20
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

Quick math
Trump tower around 60 story cost of build 360 million not sure about land price.
200 some apartments and 150 hotel rooms

This one would be close to the same thing. lets say 300 apartments 360+60 cost of building and land is 420 million. 1.4 million per appartement just to break even…shit going down in vancouver!! Crazy…

http://www.epiccyclist.com/

April 22, 2016, 9:28 a.m.
Posts: 809
Joined: Dec. 22, 2002

Pay off the mortgage, use equity to repair or renovate to your liking (optional), then live tax-deferred in your home until you die. 100,000 old Italian guys can't be wrong. Renting could still cost you an arm and a leg - there is also a shortage of rental housing. Downsizing? End up paying outrageous condo fees, assessments for repair of shoddy construction and douchebag, in-your-face neighbors that you will never be rid of that you can hear through the walls for the rest of your life.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/99_homes/

This is why we see school closures - these ol empty nesters don't take the hint and now we have see empty schools. Meanwhile, the inventory for families that have to commute gets squeezed. The ol Italian guys aren't exactly keeping the nearby restaurants open either. It'd make more sense to move 'em all to Willoughby and let the working stiffs get closer to the jobs

NSMBA member.

April 22, 2016, 9:35 a.m.
Posts: 11497
Joined: June 29, 2006

the cashout appeal is certainly growing, but we're spoiled by the amenities and haven't (yet) found that perfect alternative. like the ssc, but no snowboarding; nelson is funky, but in the middle of nowhere (and no year-round mtb)… squampton is looking more appealing as it's becoming less of a cultural black hole, though r/e pricing is getting up there. pemby is cute, if not a bit secluded… what other places would you potential cash-out-ers contemplate?

You are looking at this all wrong. Once the town hits all your check marks it will be too late. Squampton was most appealing 10 years ago before it became appealing to what seems like half of the Lower Mainland to either move to or buy rental property. I wish I had moved much sooner.

April 22, 2016, 10:03 a.m.
Posts: 7707
Joined: Sept. 11, 2003

This is why we see school closures - these ol empty nesters don't take the hint and now we have see empty schools. Meanwhile, the inventory for families that have to commute gets squeezed. The ol Italian guys aren't exactly keeping the nearby restaurants open either. It'd make more sense to move 'em all to Willoughby and let the working stiffs get closer to the jobs

Meanwhile schools in the suburbs are overflowing and new ones being built at $15 to $40 million a pop. Seniors tend to avoid suburban sprawl and car-centric neighbourhoods whenever they can. As it stands right now, the only viable solution I see is a densification plan in conjunction with transit. Transit and suburban sprawl is a non-starter. Of course densification is harder if 1/2 the units are unoccupied.

April 22, 2016, 10:13 a.m.
Posts: 11904
Joined: June 4, 2008

Canada is subsidizing foreign millionaires

Under the so-called investor program, wealthy immigrants could hand over $800,000 to the federal government in exchange for permanent residency.
Five years later, the government would return the money with no strings attached.
That’s it. If you had $800,000, or could access it through loans and mortgages, you could get a Canadian passport.

This program was a disaster.

A 2014 government report showed that after 10 years in Canada, the average immigrant who came through this investor program had a taxable salary of only $15,800.
**
One in three immigrant investors did not file a tax return — claiming zero income in Canada.

After a decade, these millionaire investors paid on average only $1,400 in annual taxes.**

What kind of person, given this information thinks this is a good idea still?

April 22, 2016, 10:39 a.m.
Posts: 6449
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

You are looking at this all wrong. Once the town hits all your check marks it will be too late. Squampton was most appealing 10 years ago before it became appealing to what seems like half of the Lower Mainland to either move to or buy rental property. I wish I had moved much sooner.

I agree. Alot of small towns that most would consider a backwater in southern BC have mostly aging populations who will be moving on and taking their old ways of thinking with them in the next 10 years.

IMO,

As more young people start leaving the big city to start a simpler life elsewhere, the cheap housing in these "backwaters" will draw in the first few looking for opportunity and simpler life and then all it takes is a cool cafe/brewery/health food store or whatever to open and suddenly that town is on the radar of the next young family passing through on holidays. When said holidaying young family goes back to their shitty, overpriced rental apartment in a big city somewhere and they get notice to vacate because the property owner is selling for millions they start thinking how nice it would be to own a house for pennies on the dollar compared to paying rent in the big city and just like that, they're thinking about that cool cafe/brewery/health food store they stopped at in the middle of nowhere where everyone seemed tanned, relaxed, healthy and talked about riding their bike/skiing/fishing/whatever much more than the stresses that come along with city life.

What to do for work in these places? Create opportunity for yourself by opening that cool cafe, brewery, health food store or whatever. If you wait for someone else to do it you're already a bit too late to the party

April 22, 2016, 10:59 a.m.
Posts: 1083
Joined: Feb. 5, 2011

Canada is subsidizing foreign millionaires

What kind of person, given this information thinks this is a good idea still?

This is one thing that I am surprised the CRA hasn't gone after - the fact that a lot of wealthy foreigners aren't claiming all the their taxable income in Canada that they should be… although at the same time it's probably a bit of a lost cause… The CRA would have to prove that they've been in the country more than X days in a year (so that they would be taxable on their worldwide income, in Canada) and then they would have to get them to declare all of their foreign investment holdings (and this could be very hard to obtain because it would probably require the cooperation of foreign banks/investment companies).

Also, if its a situation where the mother [HTML_REMOVED] kids come over to Canada but the father stays in Asia, perhaps all of the investments are in the fathers name anyways…

April 22, 2016, 11:42 a.m.
Posts: 955
Joined: Oct. 23, 2006

You are looking at this all wrong. Once the town hits all your check marks it will be too late. Squampton was most appealing 10 years ago before it became appealing to what seems like half of the Lower Mainland to either move to or buy rental property. I wish I had moved much sooner.

So true. Everyone back then thought this town was a Macca's stop on the highway (or just a general shit hole) and hindsight says that was the time to buy. Now it seems all of a sudden the thing to do is to roll into town and throw down big bucks on rent or houses, when not a damn thing has changed except the traffic (on roads, dirt, rocks and water) has gotten worse and more of our trails are built with a machine. I guess let's not forget a 2nd Timmys to add to that list. It's only dumb luck that I got in before the latest boom, so I'm not going to claim prescience. I'm not sure what boggles my mind more.. how people so willingly threw down $880K on a total shit-box with a tarp keeping it dry next to my buddy's house a few weeks back, or that it took until now for people to realize that a town set in a spectacular fjord riddled with adventure options of every kind only 45 mins from the 2nd most expensive real estate in the world in one direction and one of the most famous and popular all season resorts 35 min the other way, had epic potential.

Just wait to see how many people decide its a good time to move hear once the oceanfront starts to look like Granville Island (if the global economy doesn't collapse in the meantime). Not sure how I feel about that, as the golden age of nobody giving a shit about what you do in the woods with a chainsaw is over, and I'm sure more change for the worse is coming (along with some change for the better). I do feel very sorry for people who are getting squeezed out, as it's happening to some friends. Shitty thing is you don't get squeezed out to the burbs here, you get squeezed right out of the region. Hard to see how it's sustainable, but you guys have been thinking that for a decade in Van, so who the fuck knows. A mate saw a car load of Chinese looking guys in suits scouting a house for sale here yesterday. God help house prices here if the Chinese start thinking this is the new Richmond.

EDIT: Trailworker, I think you nailed it with your comment too.

April 22, 2016, 11:49 a.m.
Posts: 15094
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

Google "Amenity Migrant" lots of papers and articals have been written on the subject so consider that all them chinese folk are really just Amenity migrants so if you move away from Vancover to live somewhere cool and unfucked to get away from them Amenity migrants who are fucking up your city, you will also be an Amenity migrant changing where ever you move ?

You are looking at this all wrong. Once the town hits all your check marks it will be too late. Squampton was most appealing 10 years ago before it became appealing to what seems like half of the Lower Mainland to either move to or buy rental property. I wish I had moved much sooner.

I remember a guy from work buying in squamish back in the late 70's/80'a and we thot he he was fucking nuts … maybe he was cuz the road sure sucked back then

April 22, 2016, 12:05 p.m.
Posts: 1443
Joined: Feb. 17, 2009

But the real estate board's economist says that there are lots of millennials in the city and that the high price of housing is helping increase numbers of young people

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/the-myth-of-vancouver-millennials-leaving-town-because-of-high-cost-of-housing


"I know that heroes ride bicycles" - Joe Biden

April 22, 2016, 12:11 p.m.
Posts: 11904
Joined: June 4, 2008

But the real estate board's economist says that there are lots of millennials in the city and that the high price of housing is helping increase numbers of young people

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/the-myth-of-vancouver-millennials-leaving-town-because-of-high-cost-of-housing

Cameron Muir has been the defacto industry whore for a decade now.

April 22, 2016, 12:13 p.m.
Posts: 4948
Joined: Nov. 25, 2002

or that it took until now for people to realize that a town set in a spectacular fjord riddled with adventure options of every kind only 45 mins from the 2nd most expensive real estate in the world in one direction and one of the most famous and popular all season resorts 35 min the other way, had epic potential.

a no - brainer in retrospect, for sure. we had halfheartedly looked into the market there (as well as nelson) a decade or so ago; alas…

April 22, 2016, 12:49 p.m.
Posts: 1677
Joined: July 11, 2014

This is one thing that I am surprised the CRA hasn't gone after - the fact that a lot of wealthy foreigners aren't claiming all the their taxable income in Canada that they should be… although at the same time it's probably a bit of a lost cause… The CRA would have to prove that they've been in the country more than X days in a year (so that they would be taxable on their worldwide income, in Canada) and then they would have to get them to declare all of their foreign investment holdings (and this could be very hard to obtain because it would probably require the cooperation of foreign banks/investment companies).

Also, if its a situation where the mother [HTML_REMOVED] kids come over to Canada but the father stays in Asia, perhaps all of the investments are in the fathers name anyways…

The problem is the income is often with daddy who is back in China still working, he is not a resident in Canada for tax purposes so worldwide income is not subject to tax. Mom/Grandma/Kids do not work and have no income hence the bullshit situation we have now.

I still don't understand why we don't have a wealth tax for immigrants buying real property, at least on new developments. It's an easy political move, these folks can't vote. Such a tax would have some impact on housing costs but I doubt it would tank the market and imporantly, it would add tax revenue.

Also Cameron Muir is a piece of shit.

April 22, 2016, 12:58 p.m.
Posts: 6449
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

a no - brainer in retrospect, for sure. we had halfheartedly looked into the market there (as well as nelson) a decade or so ago; alas…

Nelson is already completely played out but you would still do well buying here I think; for around $300-350k you can have a nice heritage home in town. I gaurantee within 5 years, maybe less, that same house will be worth over half a mil.
Lots of room for the prices to keep moving because we're only now really starting to see the influx of big money moving from bigger cities, before there was a bit of a cap on the market because it was mostly locals buying and selling houses but now that people are moving from more expensive locales, there's room to move. Realtors have said this is one of the first times they are seeing bidding wars going on and houses selling for above asking price.

The big change is just starting to happen here and it's gonna keep flying, mark my words. This year we're seeing the construction of the first multi story housing complex with $300-500k "affordable" housing. There will be a health food store on the main floor of the building and most of the funding for the project is coming from the same developer who has done the Whole Foods development plan with a similiar model in Vancouver, Calgary, Victoria and all the other trendy places to live. The city has already torn down any shady areas where hippies and layabouts would hang out and are rebuilding them to be well lit, modern cookie cutter versions of what you see in above mentioned trendy towns. Years ago this type of development was met with alot of resistance (people were actually protesting this kind of thing with signs, marches and rallies) but now it goes through like a hot knife through butter. Successful developers like that usually don't invest that much money into a place unless they know they can hype it up enough to really raise prices sky-high. I rode the chairlift with the retired city planner (retired last year). When I asked him about development he just laughed and said "wait 10 years, you won't even recognize this place".

If you're seriously thinking of moving this way and Nelson is already out of your budget, I would strongly consider a nice little shithole like Salmo because it's only 30 minutes from town in bad weather and 15 minutes to the ski hill. Location Location Location, the ripple effect will send the prices there quite high as well.

April 22, 2016, 1:42 p.m.
Posts: 1083
Joined: Feb. 5, 2011

The problem is the income is often with daddy who is back in China still working, he is not a resident in Canada for tax purposes so worldwide income is not subject to tax. Mom/Grandma/Kids do not work and have no income hence the bullshit situation we have now.

I'm sure this is the case for a lot of them but I guarantee that there are still a good portion who are basically straight up evading taxes. To be fair, I bet a lot of them probably don't even know they are evading taxes because they barely speak the language and probably aren't familiar with our local tax rules.

Even if you assume that you have a super wealthy family and the man stays overseas for 100% of the time, it's hard to imagine that the wife wouldn't have a single financial asset held in her name (I think that article was saying 1/3 of people are reporting zero income…).

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