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The Decline of Vancouver.

March 19, 2015, 10:45 p.m.
Posts: 125
Joined: June 17, 2012

oh for sure there's an easy debate to the merits/drawbacks of detached homes, but you can't draw a direct comparison between the uk and vancouver (or north america for that matter). vancouver is barely 150 years old and when people first came here land was plentiful and cheap so detached homes were fine.

Yeah, I get that. I'm just thinking out loud that maybe people now have to tailor their expectations, for a lot of reasons, in most places where anyone wants to live. And sometimes a different way of living isn't all bad to what our parents had. That's not to say I think rental and property prices are not crazy here in Vancouver, and that our elected representatives could easily do something about it, but choose not to.

March 19, 2015, 10:55 p.m.
Posts: 1182
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Yeah, I get that. I'm just thinking out loud that maybe people now have to tailor their expectations, for a lot of reasons, in most places where anyone wants to live. And sometimes a different way of living isn't all bad to what our parents had. That's not to say I think rental and property prices are not crazy here in Vancouver, and that our elected representatives could easily do something about it, but choose not to.

i agree. i'd like to see far more townhouse complexes with underground parking, shared courtyards out front which help to foster a sense of community and maybe a small plot of private backyard that's maybe 10ft deep for bbq's, nude sunbathing, etc. on the average city block you could effectively triple the number of homes.

one more reason to vote me in as premier of the province.

context is everything

March 19, 2015, 11:17 p.m.
Posts: 125
Joined: June 17, 2012

i agree. i'd like to see far more townhouse complexes with underground parking, shared courtyards out front which help to foster a sense of community and maybe a small plot of private backyard that's maybe 10ft deep for bbq's, nude sunbathing, etc. on the average city block you could effectively triple the number of homes.

one more reason to vote me in as premier of the province.

If you get in, can you "encourage" the developers and investors help fund a proper 24hour extensive public transit system? If so, you may have my vote.

March 20, 2015, 5:55 a.m.
Posts: 18446
Joined: May 29, 2004

i agree. i'd like to see far more townhouse complexes with underground parking, shared courtyards out front which help to foster a sense of community and maybe a small plot of private backyard that's maybe 10ft deep for bbq's, nude sunbathing, etc. on the average city block you could effectively triple the number of homes.

one more reason to vote me in as premier of the province.

This is what cities like Mississauga did in the 70's and 80's and they were almost all rental units…It makes no sense to me that places like the lower mainland arent doing this now or for the past 20 years.

March 20, 2015, 8:31 a.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

Sounds like a bunch of sour grapes to me. I am one of the " owning class " , and I got here through a combination of hard work , good timing, and a bit of luck. I consider myself incredibly fortunate but don't feel bad about the position I am in that's for sure. I do feel sorry for people just starting out in their careers and trying to break into the market though. Definitely going to be harder for my kids than it has been for me.

Your kids might have the opportunity to work hard, but if the current trends between wage growth (negative in real terms) and RE growth (about 5-7% above inflation) continue for the next decade its a mathematical inevitability that your kids wont be able to afford anything, regardless of what they do.

To bring in "sour grapes" into any of this is asinine. Its math.

I do agree that some areas will be out of reach of low and middle class earners, this is fine. I'm certainly not suggesting we all deserve to have an acre in the British Properties or Point Grey road. But when this cities elite can no longer afford to purchase in these areas, you know something is up.

The real issue here needs to be framed as one of demographics, in my opinion.

The RE issue in Van is like discussion religion with a fanatic, little chance for middle ground or compromise.

The point needs to be made that we are not retaining the most educated, largest, and arguably most valuable demographic of the future - Millenials.

This is the generation that will, and already is, foster growth and innovation into the future. If this city creates an environment designed to drive them away, how can we expect anything but a bleak future? Especially for a city that touts itself as a green leader, and tech hub of the future.

March 20, 2015, 9 a.m.
Posts: 1521
Joined: Nov. 21, 2002

when the avg price of an east side detached home is at or near $1 million there is someting seriously wrong with the vancouver r/e market. the avg salaries in metro simply do not support these sorts of home prices.

This is where I have trouble with the whole foreign money is driving the market arguement. No question that foreign money is partially (fully?) responsible for $3M+ houses on the westside. But there's no way that 80 year old houses in east van are getting bought by Chinese billionaires.

So yes, the lack of supply in the west side is driving buyers further east, but why are those buyers engaging in bidding wars and mortgaging themselves to the hilt? It's not like Vancouver west of Main constitues more than, what, 5-10% of available SFH in metro Vancouver?

In my mind, the crazy prices around metro Van are the result of local buyers driving themselves into a frenzy, fueled by realtors and the media feeding the "buy now or be priced out forever" narrative. As you said, average salaries don't support current prices. And the trajectory we're on will have a rancher in PoCo priced at $2M in 10 years. Who's going to buy that? No one.

So because a) I can't imagine the global elite coming and buying homes in PoCo, and b) local salaries simply won't support the status quo for much longer, I see a correction coming to prices at some point in the future. The numbers just don't add up in my mind for things to continue the way they have in the last 5-10 years. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part and in 10 years I'll only be able to afford to rent a basement suite in Chilliwack from the billionaire upstairs.

Way back from the old school days of NSMB…

March 20, 2015, 9:09 a.m.
Posts: 14380
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

B4 the RE went crazy back in the day I moved back to Van from Kelowna, raising young kids/being the cororate slave in vancover and ime it wasn't all that great cuz it took forever to get anywhere life was fast [HTML_REMOVED] busy a lot of time was spent in a car

actualy buying groups of chinese will buy an east van tear down or whatever it is a different mindset

an aquaintance in the banking sector asked me "would you give 50K to someone you don't know, neither would I but the chinese will" to get money out of china or to invest or whatever

March 20, 2015, 9:42 a.m.
Posts: 10069
Joined: June 29, 2006

It annoys me that I can only purchase one residence in China but Chinese citizens in Canada can buy as many as they want. Silly thing about not wanting their housing market to be affected by foreign speculation…

And how much would Canadian money affect their market compared to the other way around? Canada just loves making people in other countries rich apparently.

Nanu Nanu

March 20, 2015, 9:43 a.m.
Posts: 4297
Joined: June 1, 2009

To the same end: did Alberta actually do a good job managing their finances as compared to the have-not Provinces?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No. It was context driven. Demographics and industry. Not Ralph Klein.

March 20, 2015, 10:15 a.m.
Posts: 1182
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

This is where I have trouble with the whole foreign money is driving the market arguement. No question that foreign money is partially (fully?) responsible for $3M+ houses on the westside. But there's no way that 80 year old houses in east van are getting bought by Chinese billionaires.

So yes, the lack of supply in the west side is driving buyers further east, but why are those buyers engaging in bidding wars and mortgaging themselves to the hilt? It's not like Vancouver west of Main constitues more than, what, 5-10% of available SFH in metro Vancouver?

In my mind, the crazy prices around metro Van are the result of local buyers driving themselves into a frenzy, fueled by realtors and the media feeding the "buy now or be priced out forever" narrative. As you said, average salaries don't support current prices. And the trajectory we're on will have a rancher in PoCo priced at $2M in 10 years. Who's going to buy that? No one.

So because a) I can't imagine the global elite coming and buying homes in PoCo, and b) local salaries simply won't support the status quo for much longer, I see a correction coming to prices at some point in the future. The numbers just don't add up in my mind for things to continue the way they have in the last 5-10 years. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part and in 10 years I'll only be able to afford to rent a basement suite in Chilliwack from the billionaire upstairs.

it's a combination of math and psychology, which includes as you pointed out local buyers being in a frezy. while that behaviour can be considered irrational, it's what is happening. you have these buyers engaging in bidding wars because they want a house and previous experience tells them if they don't act quickly or arent' willing to go above asking then they may not get the home they want; it's as simple as that.

so, as the foreign money buys up the supply in desireable areas, the locals who can no longer afford those go to the next lower priced desireable area and compete with others in the same situation for the same home. as this cycle repeats, eveyone gets pushed further east.

as an example, let's consider the house i reno'd with my ex back in 2004 or so that was just off the drive. she bought it at full price at $543K with no conditions only a few days after it was listed. there was significant interest in the home and it mght have even fetched more if the realtor had let it go to the open house and take offers. i feel she managed to get it because she dangled the listing of her own property, a half duplex 3 blocks away on the other side of the drive, to the realtor. her duplex had multiple offers and sold for over asking at $460 i believe.

back to the detached home. after about $200K in renos and living there a few years there she decided to list (a few years after we had split). she originally thought she would be happy to get close to $900K but the market at that time for that type of property was rare and it got listed at $949 iirc. this was a heritage renovation, everything had been done. all the original wood work that had 5 or 6 coats of paint was stripped and refinished, etc. it was a great house. the property got several offers, including one from a couple who had been outbid 4 times already and had just gotten outbid a few weeks before. the house ended up selling for $1.275M, more than $300K over asking. now this might be a bit of an outlier example, but it illustrates what's happeing in desireable areas and that puts pressure on all the markets below it.

2-3 years ago i used to think i might be bale to get back into a house again in the area i want. now however, i've pretty much given up on that unless i win the lottery. i could buy a home if i went out to surrey, poco, langley, etc, but i don't want to live that far out of the city so it means i'm stuck with at best getting a townhouse. missed opportunites from the past are what kill me the most - i had an opportunity to buy a house when i was in my early 20's.

context is everything

March 20, 2015, 10:19 a.m.
Posts: 0
Joined: Oct. 6, 2005

Why you do think our names are capitalized on every document we receive (bills, I'd) - chattel is alive and well.

Are you a natural person who is rejecting his nom de guerre? You won't be responsible for the entity the government has foisted on you?

March 20, 2015, 12:07 p.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

This is where I have trouble with the whole foreign money is driving the market arguement. No question that foreign money is partially (fully?) responsible for $3M+ houses on the westside. But there's no way that 80 year old houses in east van are getting bought by Chinese billionaires.

So yes, the lack of supply in the west side is driving buyers further east, but why are those buyers engaging in bidding wars and mortgaging themselves to the hilt? It's not like Vancouver west of Main constitues more than, what, 5-10% of available SFH in metro Vancouver?

In my mind, the crazy prices around metro Van are the result of local buyers driving themselves into a frenzy, fueled by realtors and the media feeding the "buy now or be priced out forever" narrative. As you said, average salaries don't support current prices. And the trajectory we're on will have a rancher in PoCo priced at $2M in 10 years. Who's going to buy that? No one.

So because a) I can't imagine the global elite coming and buying homes in PoCo, and b) local salaries simply won't support the status quo for much longer, I see a correction coming to prices at some point in the future. The numbers just don't add up in my mind for things to continue the way they have in the last 5-10 years. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part and in 10 years I'll only be able to afford to rent a basement suite in Chilliwack from the billionaire upstairs.

Work close to DT core -[HTML_REMOVED] try to find housing close to work -[HTML_REMOVED] huge parts of city remain zoned single family -[HTML_REMOVED] cost of single family explodes due to foreign capital + lack of supply -[HTML_REMOVED] city doubles down on inefficient housing policy -[HTML_REMOVED]incumbents continue protecting SFH -[HTML_REMOVED] incumbents continue to favour high rise development = insane wealth concentration and a massive divide between have and have nots.

March 20, 2015, 12:33 p.m.
Posts: 8935
Joined: Dec. 23, 2005

Work close to DT core -[HTML_REMOVED] try to find housing close to work

How much is a single family detached home close to downtown London or Manhattan or Toronto?

In all the talk about the problem not many solutions tabled.

As Rat pointed out, good luck getting anyone with equity in real estate to support some measure to bring prices down.

March 20, 2015, 12:40 p.m.
Posts: 34346
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Besides foreign investment, there is a lot of old money in Vancouver that wants to be spent on housing in the west side of Vancouver. There are Vancouverites that have money.

It is easy to dodge our responsibilities, but we cannot dodge the consequences of dodging our responsibilities.
- Josiah Stamp

Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race.
- H.G. Wells

March 20, 2015, 2:21 p.m.
Posts: 4297
Joined: June 1, 2009

How much is a single family detached home close to downtown London or Manhattan or Toronto?

In all the talk about the problem not many solutions tabled.

As Rat pointed out, good luck getting anyone with equity in real estate to support some measure to bring prices down.

Just because prices are high in those major cities doesnt mean they've taken the correct course of action.

The course of action for Vancouver should be: density where density makes sense (along transit lines, close to downtown, etc) and then creating the correct infrastructure to accompany the growth (i.e. continuously improving transit). The market needs supply to decrease price. Its also going to take simultaneous policies to control renting prices (so that people that people that want to live in the city without buying, can. Understanding that this comes with trade-offs).

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