The Decline of Vancouver.

So I was hesitant to post the Todd article because of his negative immigrant views, let's not push that agenda shall we? What's pertinent from his article and the two other I linked to is that there are a lot of empty homes in the region that would go a long way to solving the housing crisis, both in terms of rentals and home ownership. I also linked to them because the important point is that if there is a sudden rush to sell these empty homes it could be the proverbial pin that burst the Vancouver bubble. The housing stock here lags, but not by enough to explain the shortage of available homes.

this thread started in 2015, since then housing has got more unaffordable for joe or jane doe everywhere in Canada orders off magnitude > what anyone can afford  and that isn't changing anytime soon, its gona need more than immigrants to blame it on

Posted by: grambo

Birth rate has fallen off a cliff since mid-90s. Yes, immigration numbers are high and it certainly feels like an issue, but the system is predicated on population growth. The biggest issue is immigration funneling into lower mainland/GTA/Montreal and not spreading out.

This was my understanding as well. If we don't bring in lots of new people there won't be enough taxpayers to pay all the boomer CPP payments.

Posted by: XXX_er

this thread started in 2015, since then housing has got more unaffordable for joe or jane doe everywhere in Canada orders off magnitude > what anyone can afford  and that isn't changing anytime soon, its gona need more than immigrants to blame it on

Positive news is I'm seeing things ease up. I'm preparing to low ball on anything I can afford that's some place I'll want to stay. Don't want to be stuck paying a premium for something I'm not happy with.

the reason prices might be easing is that the interest rates have gone up to the point nobody can afford to pay the mortgage so there are less buyers

vendors who are desperate to sell are having to drop the price and that will accelerate as short term mortgages get renewed cuz the reason a huge shwack of people (  an artical on CBC said 20% ) with existing mortgages they got at 1% ( or whatever ) won't be able to afford the payments when they renew them at 5% ( or whatever)

so if the price has dropped but nobody ( including you ) can afford the mortgage payments its a moot point,

if you own a house free n clear or have the cash to buy one ^^ none of this applys to you

Posted by: XXX_er

the reason prices might be easing is that the interest rates have gone up to the point nobody can afford to pay the mortgage so there are less buyers

vendors who are desperate to sell are having to drop the price and that will accelerate as short term mortgages get renewed cuz the reason a huge shwack of people ( an artical on CBC said 20% ) with existing mortgages they got at 1% ( or whatever ) won't be able to afford the payments when they renew them at 5% ( or whatever)

so if the price has dropped but nobody ( including you ) can afford the mortgage payments its a moot point,

if you own a house free n clear or have the cash to buy one ^^ none of this applys to you

https://globalnews.ca/news/9297311/trigger-rate-mortgages-bank-of-canada/

BOC estimates half of variable rate mortgage holders hit the trigger rate back in Nov. So people be paying more on their bi-weekly payments and that should have a chilling effect on pricing.  As this renewal cycle plays out over the next 1-5 years(?) we'll see the effects of all the super-leveraged at 1% feeling the squeeze.

""The Bank of Canada estimates half of Canadian homeowners who took out a variable-rate mortgage with fixed payments have already hit their trigger rate.

Hitting a trigger rate means a mortgage holder is no longer paying down any principal on their loan and is only covering interest — a key point that can prompt the lender to force a homeowner to make additional payments.

Some 50 per cent of variable-rate mortgage holders with fixed payments had hit their trigger rate, as specified in their mortgage contract, by the end of October, the central bank estimates, representing some 13 per cent of all mortgage holders in Canada. ""

so have the banks actualy forced variable rate mortgage holders to up their payments or do they just keep collecting the interest only which seems like the smart thing as opposed to foreclosing or any kind of action from the bank ?

when i had a variable mortgage back in the day I would watch the rates like a hawk, I ran into the mortgage broker one day in a bank and  buddy gives me a heads up to lock in which I did with literally 15min notice

Not totally clear on the mechanism, but they'll force the variable rate holders to increase payment amount.  

I'm curious what happens come renewal time if prices fall say 10-15%.  Say I borrowed 800K on a 1M house and was barely paying down principle because my variable cranked up on me.  Prices fall because rates are moving, maybe my asset is re-valued by the bank down to 900K.  Renewal hits, and I haven't really moved the needle on that principle.  Bank may not want to lend me 800K on a 900K asset, they maybe only want to lend that same proportion of 80%.  80% of 900K - 720K is the new amount they would renew and I'm on the hook to figure out that 80K shortfall.  That said, the bank really doesn't want to be in the house selling game and will probably work with people on this, but potentially stressful scenarios nonetheless.

get into the house selling game with a bunch of houses which are no longer worth anywhere near what they were, I had family in the banking game and i was told the bank really does lose money in a forclosure, right now the price will  be low on a whole buncha houses and nobody has money to buy

well you can't ask for more money where there is none and i think a lot of people are at that point post covid , but if those people will just keep paying the minimum the bank is still making money so leave well enough alone as long as that interest is coming in is my take, there are just too many home owners underwater

the bank should just sell at a minor loss, move north and rent out their basement.  i've heard that works.

wow, you are just like Tom Vu only different

We were sure the 50 year old strata across the street was a teardown when the developers bought last year. 

Now it has new lipstick and rental signs.

Posted by: heckler

We were sure the 50 year old strata across the street was a teardown when the developers bought last year. 

Now it has new lipstick and rental signs.

the developer accurately assumed it was probably  a bad time to develop

trades/materials are too expensive to build....