The Decline of Vancouver.

Posted by: XXX_er

no idea, I was living in poco  dealing with my own shit, I had to go to court over RE so I was very aware of the money at stake

I paid an RE appraiser 500 $ to testify in divorce court , he was damn good and we didnt lose

but my point would be nothing is guaranteed and you got no idea what is gona happen

who would have thot a world wide epidemic would shut down the world ?

who would have thot terrorists would shut down down NA airspace by flying airplanes into the WT center ?

I hear what you are saying and I don't think anyone has a good idea of what will happen this is merely my guess based on a few assumptions and I don't think the Bank of Canada will replay the interest rates of the 80's again.  There is already talk of them toning down the next rate hike after some decent inflation news from the US.

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

Posted by: XXX_er

In Vangroovy houses went way up and then way down in the 80-81 market, price almost doubled and then back where they started in < 2 yrs, with a very low net gain

Did you also track what happened in the volatile Oshawa market in 80-81?

Savage.  LOL

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

Posted by: XXX_er

In Vangroovy houses went way up and then way down in the 80-81 market, price almost doubled and then back where they started in < 2 yrs, with a very low net gain

Did you also track what happened in the volatile Oshawa market in 80-81?

Mississauga and Oakville are where the real housing slaughter happened.

New builds sold below cost.

In 81 my parents bought a nice house ( pa was a saver, had the cash when nobody else did ) in that nice development next to the delta water shed very cheap, i believe it was below building cost, a lot of cheap fixtures to get it finished cuz the  vendor was running out of money

Poilievere sez we don't really need monetary policy it so if we vote him in he will get rid of the bank of Canada and bring in the Bitcoin

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/local-news/poster-threats-arson-violence-homeless-downtown-eastside-vancouver-5699907

"last and final promise"?  This asshole must work at the Redundancy Department of Redundancy

If it wasnt for the shooting targeting homeless in langley last month I'd be more likely to disregard this as hot air. I'm worried this is a potential powder keg.

"It's a stepping stone, you use the equity to buy something better in a few years" 

-some boomer 

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/leaky-fridge-leaves-b-c-condo-buyer-owing-100k-before-he-moves-in-1.6090768

Sample size of one is an outlier.

A recent article by Vancouver's "favourite" immigrant "hater" raises some interesting points about the current housing market. 

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-five-forces-contorting-canadian-home-prices-this-spring
Opinion: Mortgage rates, changing psychology, Canada's vulnerability, large volumes of investors and migration policy are squeezing the country's housing market.

My thoughts on the article combined with a few other bits of info:

Some may disagree with Todd due to the "foreign" factor in his arguments, but I think he's actually not far off from the truth in this article, particularly for Van and TO. The potential fly in the ointment though is how many investor owned properties are sitting empty and what could happen if they need to be sold. 

If the economy changes drastically enough that empty (or occupied) investment properties come on to the market in a rush we could be in for some significant trouble. There have been approximately 96K condo completions in the Metro Vancouver region since 2016. That 96K includes data for 2017-2021 (81,314) and a reasonable estimate of 15,000 for 2022. Metro Vancouver is from West Van to Pitt Meadows and south to Tswassen/Surrey. That doesn't include Langley/Abby/Chilliwack which would add another 14K (total guess on my part) condos over that time frame? This could mean a total pool of around 110K condo units.

Depending how many of the 49% of those investor condos are sitting empty (50% ???) and suddenly came onto the market, all within say a 12 month period, you could have an additional 27,000 condo units come onto the market at most likely significantly reduced prices in a fairly short time. To put that into perspective there are currently around 4600 condos for sale from West Van to Chilliwack (Lower Mainland), so the market could get flooded. Reports estimate that there are about 60,000 empty homes in Metro Vancouver, so my estimate of 27,000 seems pretty reasonable. Compared to the total housing inventory of around 12,000 units, those additional units would more than triple the total number of units on the market.

Data sources:

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/MV_HousingDataBook_2022.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0t_2aJ-kBsvKxH-ig8qAJnDlb2-8jLEwluq_dtCCbWK6u5cw3fqAVY-rI

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/astonishing-drop-in-number-of-empty-homes-in-metro-vancouver-census

the sheer amount of people canada is letting in through immigration is nuts.

it fucks our housing supply and our medical system. seems like we cant even house what we have and they keep letting people in. 

and its extra weird cause i myself am an immigrant but it seems like things were different in the 90s so that definitley makes it ok for me to say that maybe we should slow down a little on letting people in

Birth rate has fallen off a cliff since mid-90s. Yes, immigration numbers are high and it certainly feels like an issue, but the system is predicated on population growth. The biggest issue is immigration funneling into lower mainland/GTA/Montreal and not spreading out.

I keep hearing that we need immigrants to work the jobs no one else wants to. Or is it that business owners only want to pay crappy wages to new Canadians who work scared & are afraid of getting fired every & any day?

We have beaten a lot of the demand causes for our housing woes to death, but we need to build more IMO.  This is both a demand and supply problem.  Approvals for new homes take forever, there is almost no raw land or ready-to-build lots available anywhere, construction costs are much higher than they used to be, and we don't do much to help small towns and cities compete for immigrants and growth.

We live in a giant country that is sparsely populated, so I am fine with a lot of immigration, but can't we use this to spread us out?