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The Decline of Vancouver.

Aug. 4, 2022, 3:50 p.m.
Posts: 2378
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Re your institutional buyers link, that's a good example of how radically our housing market has changed over the past 25yrs.

Aug. 4, 2022, 4:04 p.m.
Posts: 11788
Joined: June 29, 2006

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: chupacabra

It is interesting that now we are seeing prices drop nobody mentions foreign ownership anymore.  If foreign ownership and laundered money were a big part of what got us into this how does that affect the market now?

If enough of those people decide to get out in a hurry it could trigger a landslide. But if you consider that money is simply being parked here then anyone who bought more than 2 year ago probably won't care if things drop 20-35% as that will simply take them back to 2019 valuations. Then again, if they are buying with cash then the price drops could could help bring in more buyers. There is a significant enough lack of data that it makes factoring in foreign capital and money laundering a bit hard to nail down. That recent report put it fairly low at only around 5% of the mark iirc but it could easily be higher than that.

I just want Pedro to show up and jump back into this conversation.

I am a little surprised he hasn't dusted off the old account just to give us a good "I told you so!"

Aug. 5, 2022, 6:45 a.m.
Posts: 2378
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

How investment firms make money by leaving rental units empty

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1555193132928700417.html

Aug. 5, 2022, 6:46 a.m.
Posts: 2378
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Nobody knows where the money is coming from

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate/video/billions-in-unknown-funds-flowing-into-canada-s-housing-market-transparency-international~1644554

Aug. 5, 2022, 8:43 a.m.
Posts: 2378
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Aug. 5, 2022, 9:29 a.m.
Posts: 11788
Joined: June 29, 2006

Not that I don't like the data, but isn't this really honing in on the worst data possible across the country and using the worst of that data?  A little interweb sleuthing shows that prices in Oshawa are down just over 5% year over year.  Again, you might be right, but I feel like you are on a bit of a confirmation journey.

Aug. 5, 2022, 9:50 a.m.
Posts: 2378
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Confirmation journey? Jesus Christ, say it ain't so!

It's just something I saw this morning I thought was relevant, I didn't go looking for something like this as you seem to be intimating. I haven't been following the Oshawa market, but other comments indicated that it is way over priced so this sort of drop has been expected. Whatever the case, it's still surprising though, no? It seems to me to confirm that things are very wrong with the housing market in parts of Canada. Oshawa is about an hour outside of Toronto, so I feel it's data worth taking into consideration when talking about Vancouver R/E. I'm sure if we looked as Saskatoon the number wouldn't be nearly as bad. Like I said a few post back I've been bullish on R/E for a long time, but I think we're finally about to drive off a cliff.


 Last edited by: syncro on Aug. 6, 2022, 1:38 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edit for travel time error
Aug. 5, 2022, 10:06 a.m.
Posts: 11788
Joined: June 29, 2006

Posted by: syncro

Confirmation journey? Jesus Christ, say it ain't so! 

It's just something I saw this morning I thought was relevant, I didn't go looking for something like this as you seem to be intimating.  I haven't been following the Oshawa market, but other comments indicated that it is way over priced so this sort of drop has been expected. Whatever the case, it's still surprising though, no? It seems to me to confirm that things are very wrong with the housing market in parts of Canada. Oshawa is about 3hrs outside of Toronto, so I feel it's data worth taking into consideration when talking about Vancouver R/E. I'm sure if we looked as Saskatoon the number wouldn't be nearly as bad. Like I said a few post back I've been bullish on R/E for a long time, but I think we're finally about to drive off a cliff.

I hear ya.  It is hard to know how high that cliff is though since it seems we never really understood why the market climbed for so long in the first place.  Regardless of where the money came from, I think there was a shift where Vancouver R/E became much more of an investment about 20 years ago and I think that will continue.  Those large investors that want to be Canada's landlords will probably be the ones that decide when we hit the bottom.

Aug. 5, 2022, 10:09 a.m.
Posts: 14675
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

Posted by: syncro

Oshawa is about 3hrs outside of Toronto, so I feel it's data worth taking into consideration when talking about Vancouver R/E. 

Say what?

Aug. 5, 2022, 10:27 a.m.
Posts: 2378
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: Couch_Surfer

Posted by: syncro

Oshawa is about 3hrs outside of Toronto, so I feel it's data worth taking into consideration when talking about Vancouver R/E.

Say what?

Well Van and TO get compared a lot when it comes to r/e so you could look at the surrounding areas too. The distance between TO/Oshawa is similar to Van/Fraser Valley and both Oshawa and FV have seen significant spikes in prices. TO is a much bigger market than Van, but the similarities in R/E are there. It's a better comparison than say Calgary or Edmonton in terms of r/e pricing.


 Last edited by: syncro on Aug. 6, 2022, 1:39 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Reason: travel time error
Aug. 5, 2022, 1:30 p.m.
Posts: 196
Joined: March 16, 2017

Posted by: syncro

.Oshawa is about 3hrs outside of Toronto, 

Hmm that info is a wee bit sketchy.   It took 2 hours of non stop driving from my mother in laws to Kingston and that is using the intersection of Morningside and Sheppard as a starting point.  Reality is Oshawa is not three hours outside of Toronto.

Aug. 5, 2022, 7:02 p.m.
Posts: 15670
Joined: May 29, 2004

Oshawa to toronto is like langley to vancouver

Aug. 5, 2022, 7:45 p.m.
Posts: 14675
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

^^ in terms of desirability or drive distance?

Aug. 5, 2022, 8:09 p.m.
Posts: 15670
Joined: May 29, 2004

Yes

Aug. 5, 2022, 10:02 p.m.
Posts: 18274
Joined: Oct. 28, 2003

Posted by: syncro

ok, so call it 4hrs then. makes it closer in comparing drivetime of Van/Kelowna to Tor/Osh

You mean stuck in 401 traffic gridlock?

Oshawa to Toronto (City Halls) is 43 minutes right now.  61 km on Google maps  Sheesh.   

Or do you mean Ottawa, the actual  capital of Canada?  4 hr 17 min, 403 km

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