The Decline of Vancouver.

Posted by: ReductiMat

It's not a supply-side issue.

There's a reason the provincial Liberal party never even entertained the idea of an iron-clad beneficial ownership registry and instead leaned on, "That's Racist!" whenever anyone mentioned foreign ownership.

They make most of their money from property developers.

Until we have iron-clad provincial and federal beneficial ownership registries we'll continue being a dumping ground for ill-gotten gains from abroad and we will all suffer from it.

Two sides of the same coin though? The other way to look at it is foreign buyers created and capitalized on the supply issue. 

It sounds like you are saying supply is fine we need to eliminate demand by restricting foreign investment.  

Problem is, if you try to drive down prices via that method it will still all equalize, because people will just stop selling as people would rather hold than be upside down $500k+ so supply will dry up and prices will stay fairly high anyways. 

If you start flattening all of these 1930s Crack shacks and making land assemblies and apartment buildings,  affordability will improve. 

That said our infrastructure is under capacity for the current population, so densifying is no easy task either.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/10/29/Density-Good-Towers-Parks-Not-Good/

I'd like to see some laws banning investment in property period. 

Every individual is allowed to own two pieces of property. One primary residence and one recreational in a zone defined as rural. 

Rental properties can only be owned and operated by the state using a non-profit model and the rental stock will be acquired via expropriation from any owner that is either not an individual or an individual owning more than 2 properties. 

None of this will ever happen of course. Things are just going to get more and more expensive over time. More tent cities will spring up and crime will go up until we reach total dystopia where a few elites live in towers with helipads while the rest of us have to bring weapons when we go to buy a loaf of bread and a carton of milk for 200 dollars.

^^^

Some good points. I think what would help a lot is a return to government subsidized housing/co-ops. The Feds significantly reduced their investment in social housing starting almost 40yrs ago and that probably has had an effect on where we are now. One of the benefits of social housing is that it doesn't have to return a profit  and simply operates at cost, so it provides an opportunity to for lower income families to have good basic housing at reasonable rents.

Posted by: syncro

40yrs ago

Interesting how that coincides with the Reagan/Thatcher "revolution".

Actually, Vancouver's housing problems can be traced directly to 1986 and Expo, we wanted to show the world and we did, cheap real estate perfect for the picking of Chinese millionaires with nowhere to hide their ill-gotten money a compliant pair of governments and voila our current housing crisis. the solution is simple but politically and socially difficult to pull off, make foreign ownership of real estate illegal and give all foreigner who own real estate here 12 months to dispose of all holdings. The price will correct in short order and the developers will kick and scream but our children will be able to purchase a house somewhere near where they grew up. They'll have to work hard to afford one but it will be obtainable.

Posted by: wizardB

Actually, Vancouver's housing problems can be traced directly to 1986 and Expo, we wanted to show the world and we did, cheap real estate perfect for the picking of Chinese millionaires with nowhere to hide their ill-gotten money a compliant pair of governments and voila our current housing crisis. the solution is simple but politically and socially difficult to pull off, make foreign ownership of real estate illegal and give all foreigner who own real estate here 12 months to dispose of all holdings. The price will correct in short order and the developers will kick and scream but our children will be able to purchase a house somewhere near where they grew up. They'll have to work hard to afford one but it will be obtainable.

Our problems can maybe be traced back to Expo, but putting it all on Chinese millionaires is a trope. There are a lot of reasons why our housing prices are out of control and foreign money, including ill-gotten money, is only one of them. I do think that psychologically some of the buying frenzies we saw back in 2015-2016 had a significant impact on the market, but again it was not the whole story. For the most part, locals have been buying the bulk of the housing here.

Other factors include historically low interest rates over a long period and population growth. A few years back someone posted some data that housing starts are growing faster than population and some recent posts about housing had me curious about that so I did some checking. 

From 2003-2021 there were 383,723 housing starts in Metro Van - that includes all types. Over the same period the population grew by 565,000 persons. Considering other factors like younger adults leaving the family home, it's fair to say that housing starts have either barely kept up or not kept up with population growth. 

With where we are now, even a 50% drop in home prices would still not bring the market back into alignment with median income levels in Metro Van. I think a correction is bound to happen and on some levels am a bit surprised it hasn't happened already, but when it does I don't see a drop of 50%. Unfortunately the number one thing driving housing is population increase, and as long as Vancouver remains a desirable place to live and people with money are willing to buy at the current price levels things are not going to change and we can probably expect to see more price increases. It sucks, but Vancouver is not longer the sleepy hollow it once was, it is now and international destination and with that comes high housing costs.

Canada keeps bringing in immigrants, which as a former immigrant this has me perplexed cause on the one hand I feel like the countrys full (as evidenced by you housing starts and the exorbitant prices the limited amount of housing that does exist is renting and selling for) and on the other hand... nah, thats kinda it. we should probably stop trying to increase the population in a place where shits fucking full man.

or build more houses i guess

Never mind Vangroovy I think you will find house prices have gone way up everywhere for the interior of BC

they have pretty much doubled in the 10 years  since the last minor downturn in smithers and  PG went crazy too

It's a seemingly global phenomenon. real estate be crazy everywhere.. except winipeg

Posted by: Adam-West

or build more houses i guess

Fewer of the 7 figure + luxury homes that are popping up in my neighbourhood might help. But people are buying them so what do I know.

My cousin & her daughter just bought a house together in Prince Rupert. She said of course the prices there are nothing like here in the Vangroovy area, but they are still stupidly high.

Posted by: Adam-West

Canada keeps bringing in immigrants, which as a former immigrant this has me perplexed cause on the one hand I feel like the countrys full (as evidenced by you housing starts and the exorbitant prices the limited amount of housing that does exist is renting and selling for) and on the other hand... nah, thats kinda it. we should probably stop trying to increase the population in a place where shits fucking full man.

We have to bring in immigrants because our generation isn't having enough kids so there won't be enough people working to pay the federal pensions.