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The Decline of Vancouver.

Feb. 15, 2018, 1:08 p.m.
Posts: 12782
Joined: Nov. 24, 2002

Posted by: chupacabra

I think most of our threads could have that title. It might get confusing.

Other words could be added for reference/context, for example "You dumb fuckin' monkeys, re: Vancouver housing estate", or "You dumb fuckin' monkeys, re: Guns don't kill people".


 Last edited by: Mic on Feb. 15, 2018, 1:08 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Feb. 15, 2018, 2:19 p.m.
Posts: 10290
Joined: June 29, 2006

Posted by: Mic

Posted by: chupacabra

I think most of our threads could have that title. It might get confusing.

Other words could be added for reference/context, for example "You dumb fuckin' monkeys, re: Vancouver housing estate", or "You dumb fuckin' monkeys, re: Guns don't kill people".

You dumb fucking monkeys, re: Will the plane take off  :)

Feb. 15, 2018, 7:06 p.m.
Posts: 11187
Joined: June 4, 2008

Posted by: Ddean

Posted by: ReductiMat

Can we rename this thread, "You dumb fucking monkeys"?

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/andy-yan-the-analyst-who-exposed-vancouvers-real-estate-disaster/

Places outside of NA are becoming flush with cash and I'm not sure why its such a surprise that people who live there want to deploy it toward real estate in more appealing locations like Vancouver, Toronto, many places in the US and Australia, etc... This is a global trend with Vancouver being just one of the targets. This world is not the same as it was 20yrs ago when China and other places had no cash.

And re the mortgage thing in that article, if CIBC and HSBC are facilitating and circumventing transfers of foreign cash across borders and adopting increased risk by holding big mortgages in any market, then that's their Risk Department making bad business decisions that could destroy those companies. I know when I worked with RBC (in TO) for my mortgage here I was shocked at how little they would give me all things considered. I signed that mortgage thinking that lending was already tight in Vancouver (3yrs ago). Conversations with my RBC Rep showed that RBC wanted to reduce their risk in Vancouver relative to elsewhere (including TO). Very possible CIBC and HSBC have had a diff strategy, but my experience suggests that banks are lot feeding a real estate frenzy here - the opposite in fact.

Did you actually read the article? Or maybe you were listening to something else while reading it?  The only surprise here is at how pretty much every party involved in real-estate is corrupt.  From realtors to builders to our elected representatives.

As for your single anecdote, you might want to reach out to Mr. Yan and let him know you've invalidated his decade of research.  Better yet, you might want to reach out to Gregor and his party as the only response they had of his work was to say Yan was racist.  Vision Vancouver might even hire you as a consultant..

Feb. 16, 2018, 2:46 a.m.
Posts: 12782
Joined: Nov. 24, 2002

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: Mic

Posted by: chupacabra

I think most of our threads could have that title. It might get confusing.

Other words could be added for reference/context, for example "You dumb fuckin' monkeys, re: Vancouver housing estate", or "You dumb fuckin' monkeys, re: Guns don't kill people".

You dumb fucking monkeys, re: Will the plane take off :)

Hahaha....I totally forgot about that one!


 Last edited by: Mic on Feb. 16, 2018, 2:49 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Feb. 20, 2018, 3:56 p.m.
Posts: 774
Joined: Nov. 18, 2015

Posted by: ReductiMat

Posted by: Ddean

Posted by: ReductiMat

Can we rename this thread, "You dumb fucking monkeys"?

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/andy-yan-the-analyst-who-exposed-vancouvers-real-estate-disaster/

Did you actually read the article? Or maybe you were listening to something else while reading it? The only surprise here is at how pretty much every party involved in real-estate is corrupt. From realtors to builders to our elected representatives.

As for your single anecdote, you might want to reach out to Mr. Yan and let him know you've invalidated his decade of research. Better yet, you might want to reach out to Gregor and his party as the only response they had of his work was to say Yan was racist. Vision Vancouver might even hire you as a consultant..

Yes I read it. I probably have a much lower expectation of people than you do so when I read about such things I gloss over them and say “of course”. Based upon my life, I’d be surprised if it were any different!

But at the end of the day there are a lot of business decisions being classified as corruption under your thesis. Someone is still lending on the mortgage and they are ultimately accountable for that, and the sellers and buyers are accountable at their ends too.

You know when I started looking for a home here and I saw that the bigger agents had multiple $300k plus cars I started to ask questions because I could see that their actual commission rate was very low relative to TO. Even churning couldn’t explain how real estate agents, a profession you may end up in when you’re looking for part time work or might otherwise have no options, are making millions. And I’m not talking about $1m, these guys were making way more than that. I concluded that they made their dough shadow flipping like mad while using their day job to enable it. That’s the only way I can explain it. When your agent shows up in a new GT3RS and has a Ford Gt plus other cars there’s other things going on than representing buyers and sellers. I think that game is over tho.


 Last edited by: Ddean on Feb. 20, 2018, 3:58 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Feb. 20, 2018, 6:26 p.m.
Posts: 14434
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/02/20/british-columbia-to-require-anonymous-land-owners-to-reveal-their-true-identities.html

a small step

March 18, 2018, 8 p.m.
Posts: 11187
Joined: June 4, 2008

Remember in the early years of this thread when people were pulling the "That's Racist!" card?  Hahah, good times.  Time has shown you're a fucking moron, right?

Anyways, more communist bullshit saying this is bad.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/foreign-buyers-are-using-canadian-homes-as-piggy-banks-rbc-ceo-warns

March 19, 2018, 4:17 p.m.
Posts: 1524
Joined: July 11, 2014

Looking like it could actually be a hard landing in the lower mainland housing market... lots of headwinds with B20, spec tax, foreign buyer tax, luxury tax, empty houses tax etc. etc. People have been calling for this forever but it might actually happen in 2018-19, or at least a market freeze which is what is happening now.

March 19, 2018, 6:45 p.m.
Posts: 263
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: grambo

Looking like it could actually be a hard landing in the lower mainland housing market... lots of headwinds with B20, spec tax, foreign buyer tax, luxury tax, empty houses tax etc. etc. People have been calling for this forever but it might actually happen in 2018-19, or at least a market freeze which is what is happening now.

eventually the naysayers will be right. but if they're right 15-20yrs after then fact then it kind of doesn't mater unless prices fall 50% or more. do you/we think that a hard landing could happen? yes, if the perfect storm arrives - global and local economies crashing, interest rates going skywards, foreign (chinese) investors fleeing AND local demand disappearing. I think if one or two of those things happen then we'll see a significant drop (25%?) happen, but it would take everything all at once to see an episode similar to what parts of the US went through in 2008-2009. I'll still argue that the fundamentals of what drove their bubble to burst are different that what's currently going on in our market and a lot of that is simply due to the differences in lending practices and regulations between the US and here.

March 20, 2018, 7:21 p.m.
Posts: 111
Joined: Nov. 30, 2010

So how much over asking will this gem achieve?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/barclay-street-home-in-vancouvers-west-end-for-sale-for-almost-dollar7-million/ar-BBKrNrZ?li=AAgh0dA

March 21, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
Posts: 1324
Joined: Feb. 17, 2009

Posted by: CB-Spoolmak

So how much over asking will this gem achieve?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/barclay-street-home-in-vancouvers-west-end-for-sale-for-almost-dollar7-million/ar-BBKrNrZ?li=AAgh0dA

"Another house on 1390 Thurlow St., near Pacific Street, sold for $6.4 million last year. It was assessed at $5.6 million."

If the zoning is right for a multi-family dwelling on the site, I could fetch something in the area of I'd say that it will likely sell around 5M, whereby the current owner would generate quite the windfall. Not bad considering that they're likely less than a million into it so far (downpayment, mortgage etc.).

March 22, 2018, 11:27 a.m.
Posts: 1524
Joined: July 11, 2014

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: grambo

Looking like it could actually be a hard landing in the lower mainland housing market... lots of headwinds with B20, spec tax, foreign buyer tax, luxury tax, empty houses tax etc. etc. People have been calling for this forever but it might actually happen in 2018-19, or at least a market freeze which is what is happening now.

eventually the naysayers will be right. but if they're right 15-20yrs after then fact then it kind of doesn't mater unless prices fall 50% or more. do you/we think that a hard landing could happen? yes, if the perfect storm arrives - global and local economies crashing, interest rates going skywards, foreign (chinese) investors fleeing AND local demand disappearing. I think if one or two of those things happen then we'll see a significant drop (25%?) happen, but it would take everything all at once to see an episode similar to what parts of the US went through in 2008-2009. I'll still argue that the fundamentals of what drove their bubble to burst are different that what's currently going on in our market and a lot of that is simply due to the differences in lending practices and regulations between the US and here.

My gut feeling is a freeze followed by a slow melt over several years as interest rates normalize. BoC has no choice but to follow the US Fed, letting the CAD run down to $0.60 is not an option (or shouldn't be). I highly doubt we would see 50% type price drops, that would be an economic disaster and even housing bears like myself should not hope for such a situation given the impact on jobs and consumer confidence.

Aug. 16, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
Posts: 14434
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

https://www.moneysense.ca/canadas-best-places-to-live-2018-create-your-own-ranking/#region-bt

the best place ^^ to live in BC

Aug. 19, 2018, 2:25 p.m.
Posts: 13722
Joined: Dec. 30, 2002

Posted by: XXX_er

https://www.moneysense.ca/canadas-best-places-to-live-2018-create-your-own-ranking/#region-bt

the best place ^^ to live in BC

Did not expect to see Surrey above Burnaby (in the default listing at least).

Aug. 19, 2018, 7:06 p.m.
Posts: 14434
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

they are strictly looking at the dollars and cents, they may have money sense but no other fucking sense ... claiming fort saint john the best place to live in BC ?


 Last edited by: XXX_er on Aug. 19, 2018, 7:11 p.m., edited 1 time in total.

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