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The Decline of Vancouver.

Oct. 9, 2017, 10:45 p.m.
Posts: 1117
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: Ddean

But you can repatriate ownership of these foreigner owned houses easily - you just need to buy them!

Oct. 10, 2017, 3:28 p.m.
Posts: 854
Joined: Nov. 18, 2015

If you guys have interest in looking at average age, household incomes and all kinds of other data to come up with your own conclusions instead of relying upon what sources an author chooses to reference, you can get clear data that is sourced from the census at realtor.ca.

Click on a house that is for sale and look at statistics. Its all there.

Oct. 10, 2017, 5:29 p.m.
Posts: 1117
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: Ddean

If you guys have interest in looking at average age, household incomes and all kinds of other data to come up with your own conclusions instead of relying upon what sources an author chooses to reference, you can get clear data that is sourced from the census at realtor.ca.

Click on a house that is for sale and look at statistics. Its all there.

There are really only two stats you need to worry about these days, avg family income and avg SFH price. Unless people are already in the real estate market, have a higher family income of say $150K or more or have a significant down payment the avg family/couple is this city is not buying a house.


 Last edited by: syncro on Oct. 10, 2017, 5:29 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Oct. 24, 2017, 9:47 p.m.
Posts: 11780
Joined: June 4, 2008

Holy shit.  Good for them.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/new-zealand-foreigners-buy-property-ban-coalition-talks-prime-minister-jacinda-arden-a8017261.html

Oct. 26, 2017, 10:31 p.m.
Posts: 9
Joined: Jan. 12, 2006

Posted by: ReductiMat

Holy shit.  Good for them.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/new-zealand-foreigners-buy-property-ban-coalition-talks-prime-minister-jacinda-arden-a8017261.html

Meanwhile the Canadian government is thinking about, maybe, possibly creating  a registry of new build condos so they can later possibly decide if they want to take action against people flipping on assignment sales.

Oct. 27, 2017, 12:50 p.m.
Posts: 11267
Joined: June 29, 2006

Do you guys remember this from a year and a half ago?

Billion Dollar Fund Manager Comes Out Of Retirement To Bet Against Canadian Real Estate

Will this come back to bite him if it doesn't crash soon or can he just wait it out?

Oct. 27, 2017, 3:02 p.m.
Posts: 854
Joined: Nov. 18, 2015

BetterDwelling is, in my view, nothing more than irresponsible and uninformed (or worse, biased!), fear mongering.

I don't find the material on their site as being worth the time to read.

And its never been clear to me how Cohodes is shorting Toronto and Van real-estate. Its not easy to do. Shorting HCG, who cares, everyone was short that but they were short the company not the markets he outlines. So my guess is that he can be very wrong on this call and not loose a nickel or be very right and not make a nickel.

Comparing Cdn realestate to what happened in the US is not a reasonable comparison either. The owner of the house in the US didn't have any obligations if they defaulted - those were all held by the bank so they could walk away nd the bank would have to deal with the mess - and how they did that was by selling it which further spiralled pricing. Same thing as if you're able to buy a stock on margin and enjoy the upside but if the trade doesnt work out you're able to give the stock to the lender who gave you the margin to fullfull your obligations to them. Of course you end up how thy did! The difference is in Canada that the owner of the house owes the bank the money in Canada regardless - there is no walking away from a bad loan - you default and they take the house and come after you for the difference between what they sold it for and what you owe. You simply cantt walk away from a house that's worth less than the loan as they could in the US. That's a game changing difference.

Oct. 27, 2017, 3:37 p.m.
Posts: 222
Joined: Feb. 24, 2017

Posted by: chupacabra

Do you guys remember this from a year and a half ago?

Billion Dollar Fund Manager Comes Out Of Retirement To Bet Against Canadian Real Estate

Will this come back to bite him if it doesn't crash soon or can he just wait it out?

That article is a year and a half old and the regulations he speaks of are starting to surface now. I think the Federal Gov't knows the end result would be a disaster so a forced correction is the goal.

Have been watching townhouse property prices in my hood and everything we have been following has reduced in price since the stress test announcement.

Am I the only one who noticed the crap load of open house signs on Mtn Hwy last weekend? Panic is setting in? Not many sell this time of year.

Oct. 27, 2017, 4:41 p.m.
Posts: 1117
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: bux-bux
Am I the only one who noticed the crap load of open house signs on Mtn Hwy last weekend? Panic is setting in? Not many sell this time of year.

I'd guess people are getting tired of the shit traffic trying to get onto and off of the shore. Or maybe they don't want to live in the construction mess that's going to happen and last for a few years? Possible land assembly for a condo or townhouse project? Lupus?


 Last edited by: syncro on Oct. 27, 2017, 4:41 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Oct. 27, 2017, 9:56 p.m.
Posts: 854
Joined: Nov. 18, 2015

I too have noticed a number of houses for sale in my area. Lots!

Some of them are neighbours and when I talk to them about it, no one has any moving plans. They’re for sale at a price, and they’re not what Id call bargains. 

I find it very weird. When and where I grew up you put a for sale sign on you lawn when you were moving. Here, it’s a fishing expedition. Seems common for that to happen here so I wonder how many of the signs are really people who want/need to move.

Oct. 28, 2017, 11:36 a.m.
Posts: 33589
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: bux-bux
Am I the only one who noticed the crap load of open house signs on Mtn Hwy last weekend? Panic is setting in? Not many sell this time of year.

I'd guess people are getting tired of the shit traffic trying to get onto and off of the shore. Or maybe they don't want to live in the construction mess that's going to happen and last for a few years? Possible land assembly for a condo or townhouse project? Lupus?

It's also because prices have shot up.  A townhouse next to me just sold for almost $1.4 million.

Oct. 28, 2017, 11:37 a.m.
Posts: 1821
Joined: April 25, 2003

More signs might indicate high prices, not desperation.  They're just buying low and selling high.  Over here (Victoria) it still sometimes takes a big bid over asking to secure a detached house as a buyer, even though that's not the rule (in my market) as much as it was a year ago.

As a someone that's willing to move, but doesn't NEED to for some reason, you can just set a high price, have a few showings, and wait for the big bids to come in.  Don't get a big bid?  Don't sell.  If you've paid your mortgage or it's one based on the price you paid 10 years ago, no problem.  Here you can watch the signs go up when the market heats up (and summertime) and come down when it slows again.  These are the boomers with nice houses they've paid for and don't need anymore.  All they need is one buyer that needs a place for their family and has lost out on a few good places by being outbid and they make an extra $100k for their retirement.

I'm probably going to be one of these over bidders come Monday...place is looking good, and is priced attractively to generate a lot of interest - It's a good strategy for them. I'll be paying less than a year ago as demand for these homes is slipping a bit and I've chosen a less prestigious neighbourhood to avoid competing with deep-pocketed, often foreign (as in Vancouverites cashing in, Albertan and Ontarian retirees and the dreaded Chinese) buyers that can swoop in with $150k over asking.

Interestingly, compared to Vancouver, since we stopped looking last year, in Victoria the detached, under a million $$ house market I'm in has cooled a bit (fewer bidding wars, more houses selling under asking) while the prices for nice townhouses and duplexes like we'd be selling has climbed; my realtor seems to think that rates rising and rule changes have forced families to consider townhomes and the like, and have walked away from stretching the extra bit to get a house.  Because of this my place will bring in $100k more and our house will cost $100k less...that $200k difference brought us back into the market.  Vancouver is likely different as folks are stretched already at townhome prices so they don't meet the new conditions, while at the same time supply is coming on line quickly over there - first time buyers and people looking for family ready townhomes are likely just not able to buy anymore.

Oct. 29, 2017, 12:48 p.m.
Posts: 3030
Joined: May 23, 2006

Is anyone else reading "The Renters of Vancouver" series in the Georgia Straight?

Man, that is some funny shit!


 Last edited by: tungsten on Oct. 29, 2017, 5:39 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Nov. 1, 2017, 10:48 a.m.
Posts: 11267
Joined: June 29, 2006

Posted by: Ddean

BetterDwelling is, in my view, nothing more than irresponsible and uninformed (or worse, biased!), fear mongering.

I don't find the material on their site as being worth the time to read.

And its never been clear to me how Cohodes is shorting Toronto and Van real-estate. Its not easy to do. Shorting HCG, who cares, everyone was short that but they were short the company not the markets he outlines. So my guess is that he can be very wrong on this call and not loose a nickel or be very right and not make a nickel.

Comparing Cdn realestate to what happened in the US is not a reasonable comparison either. The owner of the house in the US didn't have any obligations if they defaulted - those were all held by the bank so they could walk away nd the bank would have to deal with the mess - and how they did that was by selling it which further spiralled pricing. Same thing as if you're able to buy a stock on margin and enjoy the upside but if the trade doesnt work out you're able to give the stock to the lender who gave you the margin to fullfull your obligations to them. Of course you end up how thy did! The difference is in Canada that the owner of the house owes the bank the money in Canada regardless - there is no walking away from a bad loan - you default and they take the house and come after you for the difference between what they sold it for and what you owe. You simply cantt walk away from a house that's worth less than the loan as they could in the US. That's a game changing difference.

I don't read that site, it was just the first thing that came up when I googled "hedge fund manager shorts canadian real estate". I just remembered that bit of news and, knowing very little about how shorting works, never mind shorting real estate, I thought I would ask here. When that news came out a lot of people assumed a guy in the know like him must be privy to an imminent collapse, so I assumed that was what he needed to cash in and as we saw, that never happened.

If people are selling I don't think it is panic.  If interest rates go up we might start to see panic as people are refinancing, or trying to.  It is the monthly payment that is the source of panic, so either that has to go up, or the jobs have to disappear.


 Last edited by: chupacabra on Nov. 1, 2017, 10:51 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Nov. 1, 2017, 11:01 a.m.
Posts: 1163
Joined: March 18, 2017

iirc the guy was shorting a few mortgage lenders that have/had some suspect lending practices; similar to our lower 49th amigos.  But not on as vast of a scale.  

It does/did make for splashy headlines though.

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