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The Decline of Vancouver.

Sept. 14, 2017, 4:42 p.m.
Posts: 840
Joined: Nov. 18, 2015

Another thing: those stats are not adjusted for population size. I bet that once you do that you will find that, on a relative basis, "locals" are sticking around Vancouver more so than they are in Toronto/Montreal..etc....
I think that its interesting that the biggest message is that people are leaving the cities for rural areas. Working from home has to be a big factor.


 Last edited by: Ddean on Sept. 14, 2017, 4:43 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Sept. 14, 2017, 5:29 p.m.
Posts: 14627
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

Posted by: Ddean

I think that its interesting that the biggest message is that people are leaving the cities for rural areas. Working from home has to be a big factor.

IF you got the portable job, I know software guys who live up here and while they can work from home they often end up renting a very small office the size of a bedroom on main which is like 2-300$ a month

Sept. 14, 2017, 5:41 p.m.
Posts: 2584
Joined: May 23, 2006

Any of those have showers per chance?

Sept. 14, 2017, 5:52 p.m.
Posts: 14627
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

If yer really lucky the heat will work ok at -30

the washroom is at the end of the hall and there is no shower

but the cool coffee stand is across the street

actually damn near everything is across the street

this is good

and bad

Sept. 15, 2017, 2:34 p.m.
Posts: 1595
Joined: July 11, 2014

Posted by: XXX_er

Posted by: grambo

Re: raw log exports - the log sorts that are being exported are largely not economical to saw on the coast. If the NDP decides to ban log exports (not sure they even can) it's not like lumber companies are going to decide to spend major capex on new mills to start sawing that trash. I laughed out loud when Horgan basically stated that would be the result. These kind of decisions are margin driven, of course lumber companies want to add value and increase profits.

yeah this is what my forestry buds tell me after a few drinks^^ but I couldn't remember the specifics cuz of all the wine, like ferinstance nobody in BC wants to mill hemlock but the mill will get some money for exporting the raw logs

I think the news people don't know whats the fuck either so they print the half of the story that sounds sexy

You in the bidness? I've skied with a couple of these guys (woods manager and a VP) who literally look at a forest and see 2x4's

I've probably written at least once already, in Smithers all the kids left to go to uni or get the fuck away from where they grew up but we are seeing them all come back, I assume because they can't afford the south?

so if they are in teaching/medical/gov/ something professional they can come home where its easy to find a house for 300K, probably walk to work, fishing, hunting , easy access to alpine for pretty cheap /BC/xc skiing  and the parents are stilll here so they hit em up for the free babysitting

Yep your buds are on point. I work in the industry but on the finance side of things so I will never pretend to have the knowledge that the woods guys do... definitely love spending time with them though, and it's really cool when they are into mountain biking/skiing which a lot are.

Sept. 27, 2017, 8:21 a.m.
Posts: 4329
Joined: Oct. 24, 2005

Here's something interesting:

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/09/23/vancouver-developer-pre-sells-condos-for-cheaper-than-in-canada-at-hong-kong-fair-and-boasts-of-pricing-ordinary-canadians-out-of-the-housing-market/

Sept. 27, 2017, 12:20 p.m.
Posts: 2584
Joined: May 23, 2006

Oh yeah. Read article by educator from UBC who couldn't find housing but on trip to far east found full page ads/billboards advertising the developments being built by UBC on former endowment lands.

Sept. 27, 2017, 8:01 p.m.
Posts: 11660
Joined: June 4, 2008

Remember, you're racist if you think treating your local housing stock as an international investment vehicle is a bad idea.

You god damn fucking monkeys.

Sept. 28, 2017, 5:45 p.m.
Posts: 677
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: zahgurim

Here's something interesting:

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/09/23/vancouver-developer-pre-sells-condos-for-cheaper-than-in-canada-at-hong-kong-fair-and-boasts-of-pricing-ordinary-canadians-out-of-the-housing-market/

yet another gift from Christy's Cronnies

"For their part, the BC Liberals exempted pre-sales from the foreign buyer tax[3], enabling Onni’s customers abroad to flip lower mainland’s condo units without having to pay the 15% tax."

Oct. 8, 2017, 12:31 p.m.
Posts: 677
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

here's a long but good read on foreign capital in our housing market

http://inroadsjournal.ca/housing-price-lunacy-moves-east/

Oct. 8, 2017, 11:38 p.m.
Posts: 11660
Joined: June 4, 2008

That was very well done.

Oct. 9, 2017, 9:17 a.m.
Posts: 131
Joined: May 13, 2014

One of the things about this argument that is lost on many is "once it is gone, it is gone for good".  By this, I mean that once a property is bought by offshore Asian interests, either as an investment or whatever, it tends to stay in that community.  Most properties, once bought, are rarely, if ever, listed locally so even if a local born and raised family tried to buy the house (assuming of course they could afford it) it is very likely they would be out of luck.  There is no law that mandates "fair play" in offering property for sale; that is it has to be open tender.  So for all those retirees that sat on houses in North, West Van or the West side it is likely the last time it will be owned by a local resident.  I cannot speak for all cases, but this is the case for most.  I suspect the fact the pricing excludes many means this part of the story doesn't get too much ink but it is a sad reality.  I have lived in Vancouver all my life, North Van the first 30 years of it and I am not sure what the next 10 years will bring.  If anyone thinks there will be a market correction or crash they are dreaming.  The only thing that will change is the upward rate and how steep the growth curve will be.

I live in Langley now, strictly on economic concerns, and they are talking about another 1 million moving into the Lower Mainland in 20 years.  If traffic is this bad now, makes me wonder what the #1 will look like then.  And since the demand for land is so high, don't think Fromme is safe;  I can assure you the first two switchbacks of the road will be developed, maybe higher as the need for land grows.  Already, everything up to the park boundary on Burke is slated for development.  And for those whom ride the Woodlot, all of that nice rural land along Dewdney Trunk looks very appealing.  Sadly, the trails will take a back seat to all of this since money talks.......

Thanks Jimmy Patterson and Expo 86.  Vancouver will turn into the new version of Monaco where it is a wealthy paradise with little or no GDP and essentially revolves around the service industry.  Not sure where they will live since already it is tough for many to live close to work.  As I tell the younger crowd at my work, I have no idea how anyone under 30 is going to make it in this city unless they are blessed with good fortune or have a very quick establishment in an upwardly mobile career.  It could very well be that in the 20 year time frame allotted for the influx of people many things that we take for granted as identities of Vancouver are gone.  Personally, I think it is only a matter of time before Stanley Park is developed.  After all, with enough time and will to make it happen, it usually does.  Many would consider this statement heresy, but I see it as a logical extrapolation of known means.  What do you think will happen when the Lions Gate Bridge needs to be replaced?

Oct. 9, 2017, 9:55 a.m.
Posts: 840
Joined: Nov. 18, 2015

I agree wth you that it seems unlikely that Vancouver will face a major correction in real estate that is specific to it and isn’t a systemic issue throughout and outside of Canada. There’s just too much demand to be here, both from local and from foreign potential buyers. 

But you can repatriate ownership of these foreigner owned houses easily - you just need to buy them! Signs go up on the lawn just like any other house. In my experience, the foreigners tend to ask more than the house is worth and they almost price it assuming another year of market growth, but you can buy them just like anyone else. Local sellers who are moving need to sell and usually don’t want to take a year to do so, so they don’t ask as much.  Foreigners turn down market price bid after market price bid, and I’ve seen them raise their prices too after the house sits on the market for months! Crazy dynamics. I strongly considered purchasing a house from China but something about the house was spooky and good luck enforcing reps and warranties with a Chinese seller. Turns out the the house (which did eventually sell) has carbon monoxide issues. 

At some point in the future I’m sure Stanley Park will be developed, but I doubt that’s within my lifetime. 

Aside, anyone notice the pricing of BPPs  townhomes on Cypress at Mulgrave? Starting at $3.8M? I think that development of the NS is not going to proceed that quickly when nosebleed prices are the ask. The Districts will tell developers to pound sand.

Oct. 9, 2017, 12:23 p.m.
Posts: 2584
Joined: May 23, 2006

I think you're all wet about the park. Really?

For example, Central Park in NY.

Oct. 9, 2017, 8:28 p.m.
Posts: 11660
Joined: June 4, 2008

Posted by: Ddean

But you can repatriate ownership of these foreigner owned houses easily - you just need to buy them!

I don't think you fully grok'd the piece synchro posted.

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