The Decline of Vancouver.

you can make money when a market is up, you can make money when a market is down but you cant make anything when things are stagnant no mater what the price/value of the asset.

I wasn't trying to insinuate that Go-T shouldn't bet against China, just asking if that is why he was willing to make the wager. IMO that is where to look for whether or not this is a bubble ready to burst. The tricky part of all this is sorting out whether or not a deflated Chinese market will reduce the number of buyers or increase them.

A lot of people are saying that China is heading for a Japan like meltdown, but I think China is better at making hard decisions and acting quickly once they make up their mind so I guess we will see. I think they see the potential for a disaster so that is a good start.

One thing that's different about China is that they own virtually the entire world's manufacturing base. If China goes down, it's unlikely to last too long. Unlike when the US goes down and their currency is no longer the world's reserve. I really don't see a way out for the US in the long term, but I certainly see a thriving China in the long term. Ups and downs along the way are harder to pick than a broken nose, but long term I think it's pretty clear that the US has permanently fucked themselves and China is about to step in to replace them as the world's power. This doesn't mean I don't think there could be a temporary meltdown that could cause demand by Chinese for Vancouver real estate to dry up. I think it's more likely to happen than not.

I think the wildcard here is 3D printing. I think we're only a couple breakthroughs away from complete disruption.

Now, who knows if that's in one year or ten…

I think anyone expecting something to change is delusional. Those that own are not going to support anything that erodes the value of what they have.

No one can consistently predict change. Predicting continuity keeps your paycheck coming in.

That said, if foreign ownership continues to rise, how long until there are more renting voters than owners?

The sheep become the wolves.

The reason we have the situation we have is people bailing from China which is gona happen no matter what is happening to the economy in China

the the only thing that will affect the situation is if the our govy changes something

One thing that's different about China is that they own virtually the entire world's manufacturing base. If China goes down, it's unlikely to last too long. Unlike when the US goes down and their currency is no longer the world's reserve. I really don't see a way out for the US in the long term, but I certainly see a thriving China in the long term. Ups and downs along the way are harder to pick than a broken nose, but long term I think it's pretty clear that the US has permanently fucked themselves and China is about to step in to replace them as the world's power. This doesn't mean I don't think there could be a temporary meltdown that could cause demand by Chinese for Vancouver real estate to dry up. I think it's more likely to happen than not.

Problem for China is their number one ressource (people) is less and less needed with new technologie/automation. 3D printing is one example. And an other major fact is they import a lot and rely heavily on others (now this is debatable for how long..) The US and Canada on the other hand are for the most part self sufficient (if they chose to do so..) in most if not all sectors, we can close are doors tomorrow and we can survive on our own.

P we can close are doors tomorrow and we can survive on our own.

For that to happen we first have to kill the owning classes.

I wasn't trying to insinuate that Go-T shouldn't bet against China, just asking if that is why he was willing to make the wager. IMO that is where to look for whether or not this is a bubble ready to burst. The tricky part of all this is sorting out whether or not a deflated Chinese market will reduce the number of buyers or increase them.

A lot of people are saying that China is heading for a Japan like meltdown, but I think China is better at making hard decisions and acting quickly once they make up their mind so I guess we will see. I think they see the potential for a disaster so that is a good start.

Remember when the Japanese were buying everything in sight in the 1980s? There are a lot more Chinese than there are Japanese. The other thing is that the Japanese on the whole weren't that desperate to leave Japan. There are surveys that report something like 70% of Chinese say would get the f*ck out of Dodge if they could.

One thing that's different about China is that they own virtually the entire world's manufacturing base. If China goes down, it's unlikely to last too long. Unlike when the US goes down and their currency is no longer the world's reserve. I really don't see a way out for the US in the long term, but I certainly see a thriving China in the long term. Ups and downs along the way are harder to pick than a broken nose, but long term I think it's pretty clear that the US has permanently fucked themselves and China is about to step in to replace them as the world's power. This doesn't mean I don't think there could be a temporary meltdown that could cause demand by Chinese for Vancouver real estate to dry up. I think it's more likely to happen than not.

Unless they buy more here instead of there?

Remember when the Japanese were buying everything in sight in the 1980s? There are a lot more Chinese than there are Japanese. The other thing is that the Japanese on the whole weren't that desperate to leave Japan. There are surveys that report something like 70% of Chinese say would get the f*ck out of Dodge if they could.

So this is the just the initial stage of the full scale invasion? LOL

Even with automation China has a major head start in manufacturing and there is no reason to believe that they won't hit the ground running compared to the west. I see trouble on their horizon but I can't bet against them turning things around.

It strikes me that site going for 60million will just drive the price of everything higher
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when to bail ?!

This is the key here.

There are precisely 0 local developers that will pay even half that for the site.

Wall is a builder, this land sale probably netted him more profit than going ahead with the entire development.

If this continues, there wont even be developable land left in Vancouver to build on unless you're looking at $3000+ Sq/ft.

Same stories have been floating around lots in Metrotown. Random holding Co's coming in and throwing bids at 2-3 times what local developers need to buy at to justify building.

Can't wait until this becomes a bit more mainstream and people actually realize what were allowing.

Awesome.

Can't wait until this becomes a bit more mainstream and people actually realize what were allowing.

Awesome.

by then the street signs will be in chinese only and the Red flag of china will be above the city..:announce:

This is the key here.

There are precisely 0 local developers that will pay even half that for the site.

Wall is a builder, this land sale probably netted him more profit than going ahead with the entire development.

If this continues, there wont even be developable land left in Vancouver to build on unless you're looking at $3000+ Sq/ft.

Same stories have been floating around lots in Metrotown. Random holding Co's coming in and throwing bids at 2-3 times what local developers need to buy at to justify building.

Can't wait until this becomes a bit more mainstream and people actually realize what were allowing.

Awesome.

What motivates the buyer(s) to bid so high though? Do they actually think the land is worth this much or are they just in a huge rush to get a bunch of $$ out of China and into Canadian real estate? As you said, it doesn't really make sense to try to build on the land at that price because then you would have to charge a ridiculous amount (far about current market value) per sqft to make a profit… seems kind of bizarre.

Okay, this is really out of hand. Got one of those flyers from a RE agent in the mail yesterday. A 43 year-old 2300 sf house in our neighbourhood, on same size lot as our 4 year-old 3100 sf house, sold for above ask, and 15% more than our 2016 assessment.

I really do feel for anyone local trying to get into the market right now. So many people looking to Nanaimo and Kelowna, just to be able to afford a home.

if your not already in the Vancouver housing market you are nuts if you buy now. lots of places that are nice where you can live. If I could convince my wife I'd be out of here and cash in. I know a few that have done it with no regrets.