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The Decline of Vancouver.

March 20, 2015, 9:35 p.m.
Posts: 16387
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

The stock markets have long term average gain of around 7-8% per year, which means a doubling of market indices in about 9-10 years. So by the measure of the markets, a doubling of property value in 15 years means it's a fairly poor investment.

When one person suffers from a delusion, it is called insanity.

When many people suffer from a delusion, it is called religion.

March 20, 2015, 9:39 p.m.
Posts: 689
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

The stock markets have long term average gain of around 7-8% per year, which means a doubling of market indices in about 9-10 years. So by the measure of the markets, a doubling of property value in 15 years means it's a fairly poor investment.

yeah putting all that money into the stock market is a good idea, as long as you're ok with living in a van for 10 plus years.

I'm not a human in real life, I just play one on the internet. 

March 20, 2015, 9:41 p.m.
Posts: 10077
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

…as long as you're ok with living in a van for 10 plus years.

Livin' in a van isn't so bad,
as long as you still have money for fuel to keep movin'

March 20, 2015, 10:15 p.m.
Posts: 11666
Joined: June 4, 2008

"I'm totally cool with living on a street block where we're the only people living there full time"
- No-one ever

March 20, 2015, 10:27 p.m.
Posts: 16387
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

yeah putting all that money into the stock market is a good idea, as long as you're ok with living in a van for 10 plus years.

You're missing the point. The point being that doubling in value every 10 years is normal in most markets, be they capital markets or real estate. Doubling in 15 years is actually a slower than normal rise in price.

When one person suffers from a delusion, it is called insanity.

When many people suffer from a delusion, it is called religion.

March 20, 2015, 11:17 p.m.
Posts: 2
Joined: May 29, 2011

"I'm totally cool with living on a street block where we're the only people living there full time"
- No-one ever

Thats why my wife, kids and i left the west side. It was becoming a total ghost town. No people, no families, no kids.

In the 2.5 years we lived in our place, if i stand on the street corner and turn around, i could count 8 houses that were demolished, rebuilt as McMansions and (most) now sit empty. The house we were in is going down this summer. Within a 2-3 block radius it was dozens of houses.

March 20, 2015, 11:36 p.m.
Posts: 2631
Joined: May 23, 2006

In like 1981 the WSJ featured an article on the Vancouver real estate market and at that time stated real estate in Vancouver was like a casino.

Funny, my landlord at the time, an MD, had bought three properties on west fifth with investors and had flipped them all except the one I were living in when the market crashed he took a bath boo fucking hoo and eventually sold our house for a lose he thought he was going to retire to Birch Bay had a house in the 15hun block of Grant wonder whatever became of his sorry speculating ass?

ha ha……….

“The best propaganda is that which, as it were, works invisibly, penetrates the whole of life without the public having any knowledge of the propagandistic initiative.”

Joseph Goebbels

March 21, 2015, 9:41 a.m.
Posts: 689
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

You're missing the point. The point being that doubling in value every 10 years is normal in most markets, be they capital markets or real estate. Doubling in 15 years is actually a slower than normal rise in price.

you missed the sarcasm?

I'm not a human in real life, I just play one on the internet. 

March 21, 2015, 9:44 a.m.
Posts: 689
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

here's an interesting page i found while poking about the interwebz, it compares median income to average home price.

“By the way, I think Vancouver is a great place but it is in a major bubble. A lot of hot money from outside has inflated values. Patterns like this are short-term just like Japanese buying in California during a previous bubble. These bubbles will burst because any housing market is going to be supported over the long-term by local households and what they can afford."

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/canada-housing-bubble-ripe-for-popping-vancouver-housing-bubble-2012-pop-real-estate-canada/

ps - the aricle is from 2012

I'm not a human in real life, I just play one on the internet. 

March 21, 2015, 10:44 a.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

The stock markets have long term average gain of around 7-8% per year, which means a doubling of market indices in about 9-10 years. So by the measure of the markets, a doubling of property value in 15 years means it's a fairly poor investment.

RE values typically come nowhere near doubling every 15 years. Nor should they.

Equites represent a share in business' that operate with the intent to grow profits, enter new markets, etc, etc. For them to double every decade makes sense, new opportunities, new valuations.

It seems silly to suggest that RE should double every 10 years when the corresponding factors that contribute to increased values are not in place - wage growth.

Not seeing a doubling in values there either.

March 21, 2015, 11:50 a.m.
Posts: 16387
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

So … you agree that treating RE as an investment is silly, then?

When one person suffers from a delusion, it is called insanity.

When many people suffer from a delusion, it is called religion.

March 21, 2015, 12:43 p.m.
Posts: 4297
Joined: June 1, 2009

So … you agree that treating RE as an investment is silly, then?

It seems like people really dont like agreeing with this concept. Jeepers.

March 21, 2015, 1:32 p.m.
Posts: 689
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

So … you agree that treating RE as an investment is silly, then?

i dunno, some smart guy on the other page said that a doubling in value of real estate in 10 years is normal. isn't that a good investment?

The point being that doubling in value every 10 years is normal in most markets, be they capital markets or real estate.

:P

I'm not a human in real life, I just play one on the internet. 

March 21, 2015, 2:10 p.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

So … you agree that treating RE as an investment is silly, then?

Is this a riddle?

You stated that it took RE 15 years to double, making a it a poor return compared to equities. You also stated that its normal for assets to double every 10 years.

Am I to deduct from all this that there is nothing to talk about because RE returns are actually lagging those of other assets?

Or..?

March 21, 2015, 8:40 p.m.
Posts: 14643
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

is there a difference between RE investment and the house you live in?

If a homeowner is not prepared to sell at the drop of a hat, if an investment decision involves "well my wife doesnt wana sell or the kids are happy here" its not just an investment

I know vancoverites who have invested in RE up here both commercial and single family dwellings to rent cuz its afordable

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