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The Decline of Vancouver.

Aug. 6, 2022, 1:37 p.m.
Posts: 2467
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Seems that when I checked the distance/time on google maps that it was set to walking and not driving - hence the 3hrs. So yeah, with Oshawa being only an hour or so from TO my Vancouver "comaprison" seems even more relevant.

Aug. 7, 2022, 10:26 a.m.
Posts: 18367
Joined: Oct. 28, 2003

Gangland shootings in the middle of the afternoon on Hwy 1 in Burnaby and you guys are worried about housing prices and walking to Oshawa?!?

We drove past this in opposite direction.   So many cop cars I knew some bad shit was going down.   

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/victim-of-gang-related-shooting-on-highway-1-in-burnaby-identified-as-18-year-old-man-1.6017551


 Last edited by: heckler on Aug. 7, 2022, 10:29 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Aug. 7, 2022, 10:32 a.m.
Posts: 18367
Joined: Oct. 28, 2003

Posted by: syncro

Seems that when I checked the distance/time on google maps that it was set to walking and not driving - hence the 3hrs. So yeah, with Oshawa being only an hour or so from TO my Vancouver "comaprison" seems even more relevant.

It’s ok, I have it on bike mode quite often. And we knew your comaprison was accurate. 😁😗


 Last edited by: heckler on Aug. 7, 2022, 10:33 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Aug. 11, 2022, 4:29 p.m.
Posts: 13056
Joined: Jan. 27, 2003

Posted by: heckler

Gangland shootings in the middle of the afternoon on Hwy 1 in Burnaby and you guys are worried about housing prices and walking to Oshawa?!?

Are you saying rates of violence don't always go up as the economy gets shittier?

Aug. 11, 2022, 6:47 p.m.
Posts: 2467
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Further musings on housing prices - this time in the opposite direction. One of the arguments that's gone back and forth is the housing supply issue, with some saying it's a myth and some not. If the demand for housing (both rental and ownership) remains strong, will this help prevent a significant decline in housing prices? In light of strong demand what is needed to see big drops in the market? Interest rates above historical norms? A faltering economy? Both?

Info to consider against the housing market collapsing

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--may-12-2021-.html

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en/TableMapChart/Table?TableId=2.2.1&GeographyId=2410&GeographyTypeId=3&DisplayAs=Table&GeograghyName=Vancouver


 Last edited by: syncro on Aug. 11, 2022, 7:57 p.m., edited 3 times in total.
Aug. 11, 2022, 7:16 p.m.
Posts: 13056
Joined: Jan. 27, 2003

Posted by: syncro

Further musings on housing prices - this time in the opposite direction. One of the arguments that's gone back and forth is the housing supply issue, with some saying it's a myth and some not. If the demand for housing (both rental and ownership) remains strong, will this help prevent a significant decline in housing prices? In light of strong demand what is needed to see big drops in the market? Interest rates above historical norms?  A faltering economy? Both? 

Info to consider against the housing market collapsing

https://www.scotiabank.com/.../post.other-publications...

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/.../en/TableMapChart/Table...

Neither of those links open for me for some reason.

Aug. 11, 2022, 7:55 p.m.
Posts: 2467
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

weird - the links are being blocked from nsmb for some reason. try copy pasta


 Last edited by: syncro on Aug. 11, 2022, 7:56 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
Aug. 12, 2022, 9:03 a.m.
Posts: 11846
Joined: June 29, 2006

They don't work for me either, even with copy/pasta.

Aug. 12, 2022, 9:50 a.m.
Posts: 2467
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

First link was a report on this: Canada has the lowest number of housing units per 1,000 residents of any G7 country. The number of housing units per 1,000 Canadians has been falling since 2016 owing to the sharp rise in population growth. An extra 100 thousand dwellings would have been required to keep the ratio of housing units to population stable since 2016—leaving us still well below the G7 average.

Second link showed the rental vacancy rate since 1991 at typically around 1% or less

If I copy/paste the links I can see both pages - and this is on a different computer in a different building from last night.


 Last edited by: syncro on Aug. 12, 2022, 9:51 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Aug. 12, 2022, 10:43 a.m.
Posts: 567
Joined: Jan. 2, 2018

I think they only way housing drops severely (ie more than 25%, which I would not consider severe, that's just resetting the covid bubble) is is interest rates get so bad there's lots of foreclosures, and or the economic conditions start screwing up the investment returns from pensioners and they start having to sell to keep themselves afloat. So a huge selloff due to disaster in the financial district. 

I can't see the banks pushing interest rates so far that they start to trigger large numbers of foreclosures though. I mean that many people defaulting would be counterproductive. 

I think prices fall 25%, and supply will drop further because anyone who can hold, will just hold. Buyers will be demotivated due to interest rates and sellers will be demotivated due to the reduced prices and the market will just stagnate for a couple years and then revert to the usual insanity.

Aug. 15, 2022, 8:55 a.m.
Posts: 11846
Joined: June 29, 2006

Posted by: Kenny

I think they only way housing drops severely (ie more than 25%, which I would not consider severe, that's just resetting the covid bubble) is is interest rates get so bad there's lots of foreclosures, and or the economic conditions start screwing up the investment returns from pensioners and they start having to sell to keep themselves afloat. So a huge selloff due to disaster in the financial district. 

I can't see the banks pushing interest rates so far that they start to trigger large numbers of foreclosures though. I mean that many people defaulting would be counterproductive. 

I think prices fall 25%, and supply will drop further because anyone who can hold, will just hold. Buyers will be demotivated due to interest rates and sellers will be demotivated due to the reduced prices and the market will just stagnate for a couple years and then revert to the usual insanity.

This is what I am expecting as well.  There is a supply issue and there are buyers so I can't see this cratering as some people think.  It all hinges on inflation and whether or not it ramps up again going into 2023.

Aug. 15, 2022, 9:25 a.m.
Posts: 15548
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

In Vangroovy houses went way  up and then way down in the 80-81 market, price almost doubled and then back where they started in < 2 yrs, with a very low net gain

the interest rates are set by the the bank of canada not the banks in Canada

Aug. 15, 2022, 10:19 a.m.
Posts: 14710
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

Posted by: XXX_er

In Vangroovy houses went way up and then way down in the 80-81 market, price almost doubled and then back where they started in < 2 yrs, with a very low net gain

Did you also track what happened in the volatile Oshawa market in 80-81?


 Last edited by: Couch_Surfer on Aug. 15, 2022, 10:20 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Aug. 15, 2022, 11:09 a.m.
Posts: 15548
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

no idea, I was living in poco  dealing with my own shit, I had to go to court over RE so I was very aware of the money at stake

I paid an RE appraiser 500 $ to testify in divorce court , he was damn good and we didnt lose

but my point would be nothing is guaranteed and you got no idea what is gona happen

who would have thot a world wide epidemic would shut down the world ?

who would have thot terrorists would shut down down NA airspace by flying airplanes into the WT center ?


 Last edited by: XXX_er on Aug. 15, 2022, 11:11 a.m., edited 1 time in total.
Aug. 15, 2022, 11:16 a.m.
Posts: 15548
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

last friday I sold my sea kayak to a couple that told me they  bought a  house this year on 5 acres in an estate sale and the price was

90,000$

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