The Decline of Vancouver.

so how do the figures shake out for the rest of BC where lets say a 1st house might be 200K?

I think it'll just drive prices up across the province…this is what I see happening:

People living in lower mainland/southern Island/kelowna/wherever bubble get excited, think they can afford a first house because gov. is giving away free money. Buy expensive wine to celebrate soon to be home ownership.

Go to bank, realize that their incomes aren't even close to high enough to qualify for a mortgage on a high priced home in bubble zone.

Come home desperate and despondant; still in shitty rental bubble. Upstairs neighbours have a domestic later that evening, kids stamping around screaming, aspiring DJ neighbour pumping shitty drum n bass all night, or whatever. ok enough is enough.

They see a facebook post from their friends who just moved to whatever small town in BC out blasting powder turns without crowds, scroll back through pics from the summer and said friends were out gardening (actually have a garden!), swimming in the lake, living the life. Friends now own their own home, pay next to nothing for a mortgage compared to rent, their kid goes to some nice school and everyone at the coffee shop knows their name. Friends have made some connections in the community and mention that a job posting just opened up at the hospital/school board/whatever.

Couple starts looking at real estate in other small towns across BC that they never considered living in, drink bottle of wine, imagine themselves moving somewhere else. Hey, this could actually work!

Boom, real estate demand in small towns goes up across the board. Maybe not shitty small towns, but anywhere with even a few job prospects, cheap real estate and other families will go up.

I predicted this exact thing a little over a year ago, and house prices in this area have gone up $100-200k since then for the exact reasons I stated above. Most new families are coming to this area from the lower mainland, calgary, toronto because they couldn't afford a house where they moved from and even though RE was already pricey, its still a bargain compared to the city. Other small towns, like the one you live in XXX'er, will feel the same crunch. Property Values are on the decline in Vancouver, but have gone up almost every where else in the past year.

The New York Times even wrote an article about it last month:
With Flood of Urbanites, a Canadian Hippie Haven tries to keep it's mellow

I thot that scenario has been going on for some time in Nelson? which btw we call the "Smithers of the South"

Since we know Vangroovy is probably fucked for this program I was more thinking how much money would they get out of the program when say a 1st time buyer moves to interiour BC and buys a 200-300K starter house

yeah people come, its harder to make enough $$$ up here some jobs are seasonal, smart women with edumacations can't find men (seriously!) maybe things don't work out and they leave but the right people stay

I've owned houses in two bubble cities (Toronto and now West Van) and the same pattern plays out over and over. The magnitude might be different, but the real estate gains on the periphery driven by a lack of affordability in the Cities, are the most vulnerable to market shocks.

I bet we see some weakness 2017 but I also bet that weakness, as a %, will be greatest on the margin. Longer term I bet real estate is at least slowly increasing through the entire lower mainland. Last years increase was nonsense- we are going to give a bunch of that back this year. It won't impact most.

Personally, I'm not selling in the next many years, or at least I don't plan to, so it's all a moot point. We do need a healthier real estate market and HIGHER SALARIES. It's hard to get people to move here despite it being, in my opinion, the best place in the world to live.

Had I have lived anywhere but Toronto where I made good dough off my house there I couldn't have moved here.

We do need a healthier real estate market and HIGHER SALARIES. It's hard to get people to move here despite it being, in my opinion, the best place in the world to live.

Vancouver being the best place to live in the world is the root cause of the low salaries - more skilled workers here than the local economy can support, which drives down wages.

Taxes are based on market value so it sounds to me like people are paying some insane taxes even on small houses ?

I know a couple of outdoor type people who live very frugally in Vancover in small neat homes they bought way back in the day in point grey and Dunbar that if sold would be instant teardowns but they live in them playing hard and working not much but the taxes they tell me about are insane

it sounds like they deffer them

Taxes are based on market value so it sounds to me like people are paying some insane taxes even on small houses ?

I know a couple of outdoor type people who live very frugally in Vancover in small neat homes they bought way back in the day in point grey and Dunbar that if sold would be instant teardowns but they live in them playing hard and working not much but the taxes they tell me about are insane

it sounds like they deffer them

I don't agree with people complaining about their property taxes… Like their property goes up in value by $400k in one year and they complain that they have to pay another few thousand dollars in property taxes. Step back and think about that for a second - someone's net worth just went up $400k in 12 months and they gotta pay (say an extra $4k of property taxes) - they are still up $396k!! I just made those numbers up, but you get what I'm saying.

I do understand that its more of a cashflow issue than anything though - so people should have the option to defer but they should still be charged interest on the amount deferred.

For reference, the absolute amount of my property tax here in West Van is about 2/3rds what it was in Toronto, and my house is ~2x in value.

I disagree that there are an abundance of professionals here in Van. Many companies I know cant find senior people to hire here. My company brought me out from Toronto because there was no one in Van for the role. I think that part of this is because many of the professionals left when they were starting their career because who can afford to stay at the start of a career with this cost of living? Elsewhere is so much easier. Higher salary and lower cost of living. The math is awkward in Van. There's no banking and little to no industry. This is not a working city -this is a lifestyle city.

Its tough to get professionals to move here from most places - the wives shoot it down because of what the new house looks like (for most), unless they want to say f'it and plunk down way more than they would otherwise. If you're not coming with cash its virtually impossible to come here.

You guys that bought in to the market when prices were reasonable, then enjoyed a decade of dirt cheap rates really hit the jackpot, didn't ya? Lucky fucks.

Yes they were. I wish I was but I'm thankful that I bought March 2015 vs March 2016!

They been living where they are living since well before the turn of the century and while they haven't changed its RE that has changed, I think there are lots of older Vancoverites in this boat

I think the one guy has a bungalow on a 3 million dollar lot in point grey, the other guy does some home renos and climbs alot

They mentioned taxes are crazy but they weren't really complaining probably cuz it just kept sneaking up, they defer taxes yeah you still pay interest on defered taxes but its really low

I pay 1800$ in tax I think those guys are paying more like 15K?

Pulling aside real estate, why is EVERYTHING else so much?

Car insurance the same price as it was in Toronto, which was 2x what I paid for same car, same person in Ottawa. Driving around here is much more like Ottawa than Toronto.

Food!

Gas - youve got to be kidding me! Im thinking of going into hugger mode and getting an electric car - too much $$ is going into gas!

Vancouver has a huge transit tax.

Vancouver has a huge transit tax.

Getting more huge for property owners ha ha you had your chance you greedy suckers now you get to subsidize the renters.

Pulling aside real estate, why is EVERYTHING else so much?

Car insurance the same price as it was in Toronto, which was 2x what I paid for same car, same person in Ottawa. Driving around here is much more like Ottawa than Toronto.

Food!

Gas - youve got to be kidding me! Im thinking of going into hugger mode and getting an electric car - too much $$ is going into gas!

This too!