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The Decline of Vancouver.

March 19, 2015, 11:17 a.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

Stumbled upon this post the other day.

It succinctly describes the problems and challenges facing Vancouver - I think. I think its a very pertinent post particularly with the transit plebiscite coming up, etc.

Read here:

http://sofard.tumblr.com/post/113616107456/the-decline-of-vancouver

Thoughts? Opinions?

March 19, 2015, 11:40 a.m.
Posts: 13927
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

Everyone loves Capitalism until it smacks them in the face.

March 19, 2015, 11:48 a.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

Everyone loves Capitalism until it smacks them in the face.

Not sure that capitalism = feudalism.

March 19, 2015, 11:54 a.m.
Posts: 597
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

imo the number one issue here is housing affordability - and blame that on offshore money.

0fg

March 19, 2015, 11:56 a.m.
Posts: 13927
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

Not sure that capitalism = feudalism.

I sort of agree, but it does seem to have become the next logical stage of it. I'm all for bumping the corporate rates back up, bumping the top marginal rate up, bumping the cap gains rate back up, and looking to the Scandinavian model for selling public resources to Multi-nationals (here's looking at you Nestle).

But that's a form of Socialism, and that's the devil's system. So we're just getting what we asked (voted) for.

March 19, 2015, 11:58 a.m.
Posts: 13927
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

imo the number one issue here is housing affordability - and blame that on offshore money.

Supply/Demand. Rich offshore buyers have lots of money and want to buy our land… but we don't like that this drives up prices to the point where we can't afford it.

Why can't Vancouver zone all of the west side as Duplex/Townhouse friendly and let the developers have a field day building townhouses.

March 19, 2015, 11:59 a.m.
Posts: 11827
Joined: Nov. 20, 2002

so why build a skytrain thu the westside if only rich people who wont use transit anyway live there.

just sell UBC to the Chinese and build it in surrey . problem solved.

March 19, 2015, 12:20 p.m.
Posts: 58
Joined: Oct. 23, 2003

Not sure that capitalism = feudalism.

Nailed it. The world has not changed one bit.

Ha Ha! Made you look.

March 19, 2015, 12:21 p.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

I sort of agree, but it does seem to have become the next logical stage of it. I'm all for bumping the corporate rates back up, bumping the top marginal rate up, bumping the cap gains rate back up, and looking to the Scandinavian model for selling public resources to Multi-nationals (here's looking at you Nestle).

But that's a form of Socialism, and that's the devil's system. So we're just getting what we asked (voted) for.

I think what were living under is corporatism. That is, we have once again been delegated to serfdom but instead of Kings we are ruled by Corporations with immense lobbying powers.

I too agree its mostly an electorate problem.

How do we change this?

March 19, 2015, 12:25 p.m.
Posts: 3
Joined: July 4, 2003

Supply/Demand. Rich offshore buyers have lots of money and want to buy our land… but we don't like that this drives up prices to the point where we can't afford it.

Why can't Vancouver zone all of the west side as Duplex/Townhouse friendly and let the developers have a field day building townhouses.

This, I think, is the irony Vancouver faces.

To be able to continue this massive land price appreciation, the exit strategy for todays buyers will have to include assembly/up zone.

However, these same buyers are extremely reluctant to allow up zoning/ changes in neighbourhoods.

The civic government also has a stake in encouraging a lack of up zoning, because it pleases the electorate, but more importantly pleases the local developers who are able to continue building high-rise despite it being the least cost effective form of housing to man.

However, why would the CoV you want to stop high-rise construction? The amount of money it provides via permit fees and developer contributions is staggering.

March 19, 2015, 12:48 p.m.
Posts: 1915
Joined: Nov. 21, 2002

Thanks for posting OP … good article IMO

But what's going to change to make things different? Doesn't seem like things will slow down any time soon … China's economy is slowing which may drive more $$$ out of that country and into "safe haven" investments like Vcr real estate. The Cdn dollar is losing value as our resource based economy falters with the drop in oil prices, so it makes it even cheaper to buy here for offshore buyers likely spending USD. Politically, nothing will change … development dollars pay for the civic politician's election campaigns, so good luck with any marked changes there … and I think it's important to remember that a lot of ppl in Vcr are benefiting from the cities development focus, so a regime change will be a challenge.

:canada: :england:

March 19, 2015, 1:43 p.m.
Posts: 4297
Joined: June 1, 2009

Thanks for posting OP … good article IMO

But what's going to change to make things different? Doesn't seem like things will slow down any time soon … China's economy is slowing which may drive more $$$ out of that country and into "safe haven" investments like Vcr real estate. The Cdn dollar is losing value as our resource based economy falters with the drop in oil prices, so it makes it even cheaper to buy here for offshore buyers likely spending USD. Politically, nothing will change … development dollars pay for the civic politician's election campaigns, so good luck with any marked changes there … and I think it's important to remember that a lot of ppl in Vcr are benefiting from the cities development focus, so a regime change will be a challenge.

Maybe a housing crash? Interest rates that push 7 or 8%? I think you're right, too many people profit from the shitty policies, so just expecting things to change is unlikely.

Or it might just be something that takes a generation, when the 20 somethings realize that they can no longer live here and move elsewhere, maybe somewhere else benefits. And maybe that place will have a municipal gov't that has some foresight.

March 19, 2015, 2 p.m.
Posts: 13927
Joined: Feb. 19, 2003

Maybe a housing crash? Interest rates that push 7 or 8%?

Define crash. 10%, 20%, 50% from current? What is it that causes a crash, if everyone is saying that it's foreign money parking cash. Not a lot of scenarios I see currently where foreign buyers are needing to free all tied capital en masse.

Interest rates @ 7 or 8 percent would have a big impact for sure - but I'm not holding my breath on that. Articles I read are talking about whether BoC would entertain negative rates, or at very least, how long do we flatline at bottom. I don't see how we get to 7 or 8 % even 5 years out.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.

March 19, 2015, 2:04 p.m.
Posts: 34092
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Thanks to real estate being the priority economy of the lower mainland.

Yup. Thank you Gordon Campbell for making it worse.

It is easy to dodge our responsibilities, but we cannot dodge the consequences of dodging our responsibilities.
- Josiah Stamp

Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race.
- H.G. Wells

March 19, 2015, 2:18 p.m.
Posts: 4297
Joined: June 1, 2009

Define crash. 10%, 20%, 50% from current? What is it that causes a crash, if everyone is saying that it's foreign money parking cash. Not a lot of scenarios I see currently where foreign buyers are needing to free all tied capital en masse.

Interest rates @ 7 or 8 percent would have a big impact for sure - but I'm not holding my breath on that. Articles I read are talking about whether BoC would entertain negative rates, or at very least, how long do we flatline at bottom. I don't see how we get to 7 or 8 % even 5 years out.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.

Haha. Yes, I know the Keynes quote.

I meant an increase in interest rates could quite easily lead to a crash. What that increase is, Im not sure. 7 or 8% would certainly make a lot of folks uncomfortable. 10% would probably cause an exodus. Obviously, volatile and increasing interest rates aren't favored by the BoC, but the BoC has to balance a myriad of factors, not just an inflated housing market in one city. Its role is to smooth out fluctuations, to reduce volatility, therefore, it may act, even when it doesnt really want to do so.

Remember 15% mortgages? edit: I know this is the bank rate and not mortgage rates.

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