Real Estate Prices in Van

… and that is why I will be moving to the States :)

Pedro

Out of the frying pan

I hear there is some cheap real estate presently available in New Orleans. Some real fixer uppers if you like to do it yourself.

pedro, i hope you are not like other unfortunate souls who have been waiting for this bubble to burst since 2001. wether or not prices go down a little in the short term, NOT buying since then was a big mistake, and the "bubble" people should be ashamed of themselves for misleading the american/canadian public

gw - I publicly acknowledge that i was wrong about the Vancouver market.

Having said that, I've dumped two investment properties that i bought 5 years ago and am only holding my personal residence.

Also a belated congrats to you on making it out like a bandit

gw - I publicly acknowledge that i was wrong about the Vancouver market.

Having said that, I've dumped two investment properties that i bought 5 years ago and am only holding my personal residence.

Also a belated congrats to you on making it out like a bandit

i publicly acknowledge that i didn't do nearly as well as i should have.

i also have dumped everything and other than a few group invesments with work peeps and family, i am down to just my principle residence.

as you have known/said for a while, the rent/mortgage ratio doesn't work and with 6-8% gains instead of 15-30% it costs to much to hang onto to make money.

the people who have really missed out do not own their principal residence (have chosen not to) if you are buying for the longterm, there is no wrong to buy

pedro, i hope you are not like other unfortunate souls who have been waiting for this bubble to burst since 2001. wether or not prices go down a little in the short term, NOT buying since then was a big mistake, and the "bubble" people should be ashamed of themselves for misleading the american/canadian public

I haven't been waiting for the bubble to burst. I had bigger issues to deal with in 2001 than buying a house.

As I have said, I am not sure how the Vancouver market would be affected but some of the bubbles are starting to bursts in the states.

I know you are referring to Vancouver (which I have acknowledged being a special case) but the good times don't last forever. They never do. As I have asked Gooch, did you read the entry that I have posted?

I know you guys are in Real estate and it's only understanding that you are thinking positively. This reminds me of all the Techies buying tech stocks before the .com crash.

Furthermore, the great thing about living in Canada is that we have the option of leaving and living virtually anywhere in the world. Personally, if I have to shell out $300000 to live in a hole, I will strongly consider living somewhere else…

Pedro

I haven't been waiting for the bubble to burst. I had bigger issues to deal with in 2001 than buying a house.

As I have said, I am not sure how the Vancouver market would be affected but some of the bubbles are starting to bursts in the states.

I know you are referring to Vancouver (which I have acknowledged being a special case) but the good times don't last forever. They never do. As I have asked Gooch, did you read the entry that I have posted?

I know you guys are in Real estate and it's only understanding that you are thinking positively. This reminds me of all the Techies buying tech stocks before the .com crash.

Furthermore, the great thing about living in Canada is that we have the option of leaving and living virtually anywhere in the world. Personally, if I have to shell out $300000 to live in a hole, I will strongly consider living somewhere else…

Pedro

good times don't last forever?

so when are we going back to 1930's pricing?

it is too bad you would compare this to the .com bubble, it really shows some holes in your investment knowledge (not trying to insult)

besides, wikipedia, do you want to post something for us to read that would indicate we are going to see a market where you (or anyone else here) will be able to buy at 2001 prices?

this is a great debate (especially as we are seeing things slow right now) but linking something that says a bubble started in 2001, making no mention of vancouver's place in the international marketplace and no predictions about where things will be when the "bubble" bursts, is not really a debate

no offense, but just saying that if a house is 300,000 you would rather live elsewhere is no really useful

so when are we going back to 1930's pricing?

Over the holding periods of decades, inflation-adjusted house prices have increased less than 1% per year.Robert Shiller shows that over long periods, inflation adjusted U.S. home prices increased 0.4% per year from 1890

pedro, good info/points. the inflation adjusted price index is very wrong.

a quick example (this is off memory sorry no chart and i may be off by a few dollars/years but the essense remains the same)

in the late 1800's you could buy an acreage in mount pleasant, vancouver for around 200 bucks. inflation adjusted i believe put this at a little under 10 grand in today's dollars. a regular lot (less than an 1/8th of an acre) in the area is now minimum 400,000.

so inflation puts it at 10,000

real estate puts it at 3,200,000

this is not a one off. sorry your stats are just wrong.

most baby boomers who are now entering retirement age owe over 50% of their net worth to real estate. our parent's could buy houses (depending on where in the country) from 5000 to 40,000 for modest to nice houses in the late 60's early 70's.

lets choose 17,000 the cost of my parents first house in 1971 (in alta). inflation puts that house at $80,000 today. lot values (pretend the house fell apart as it was already old in 1971) are minimum 250,000

that is 3 times inflation.

i know nothing about the japanese market, but you will have to let go of that wiki article, it is wrong.

a house in sunshine hills, north delta was 90,000 in 1983. most people in the early 80's would call you nuts for buying a house (the early 80's had 22% interest rates and hyperinflation) inflation puts that house at 180,000 right now (thanks to the low inflation of the 90's) and yet market value would be 400,000 if it was a fixer upper, 500,000 if well taken care of.

so its unlikely that ther ewill be some sort of bubble in vancouver? I am looking to possibly get a condo downtown sometime soon, how well do they hold their value compared to land/a house?

shit! i'm gonna sell my place and wait for this bubble to burst….. damn realtor never informed me about these bubbles!

i know nothing about the japanese market, but you will have to let go of that wiki article, it is wrong.

I know you are talking about Vancouver and your examples are clearly local and I agree that Vancouver has indeed enjoyed the benefits of the real estate boom but by no means makes the Wikipedia article WRONG.

I will summerize my understanding of the article and please point out where it appears to be WRONG:

1. DotComs crash sending the US into a minor recession.
2. Speculators/Investors look for a new place to invest given the instability of the stock market.
3. US economical head huncho jump-starts US economy by lowering interest rates and therefore encouraging speculators to invest into real estate.
4. Demand for real estate drives prices up.
5. US citizens thinking that all of a sudden they have more money (since their house is worth more) go on a spending spree (on CREDIT of course) driving the US economy into the Green increasing consumer spending/confidence. Adding to this, US media perpetuates real estate investment myths and more and more jump on the band wagon driving prices even higher.
6. US house prices level off leading to waining consumer confidence and spending inherently leading to a slow down in the US economy.
7. As a logical consequence of an economcal slow-down people are less confident to purchase real estate leading to lower house prices. Adding to this, 2007 is the first year in which mortgages with record-low interest rates are expiring leading home owners with a much higher (30% average) morgage to pay beyond 2007 hence leading to an even lower consumer confidence which results in an even greater slow-down in economy leading a recession which of course leads to lower housing prices….

Please point out where the article doesn't make sense.

Of course the above cannot exactly be applied to Vancouver but many factors outlined in it do apply…

Pedro

I think CMHC is calling for 6% in 2007 and 2% In 2008. Not that it means much.