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2018 Property Assement

Jan. 11, 2018, 8:11 p.m.
Posts: 66
Joined: Oct. 23, 2003

OMG it's so much more awesome now. 

Has that fresh split fir smell and ample room to pull in and throw a lift in your truck.

Jan. 11, 2018, 10:08 p.m.
Posts: 33284
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Posted by: Adam-West

even mine in the last couple years went up 3-5%.. last year 30%. really stands out you know.

Which part of the town are you living?

Jan. 12, 2018, 6:51 a.m.
Posts: 66
Joined: Oct. 23, 2003

Willow Point just south of Hilchey

Jan. 12, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
Posts: 1501
Joined: Aug. 6, 2009

Posted by: blackfly

Vancouver is slowly turning into another Monaco where the wealth is generated elsewhere and the local industry is around such wealth, mostly services.  Note this means local industry is a thing of the past and good paying local jobs will be at a premium.  I would venture the best industry to be in right now is construction/renos/electrical etc...and all ancillary services with development.  In the lower mainland that is where the jobs are.

The company I work for employs engineers, software developers, physicists, machinists and fabricators.  It used to be that when we posted jobs, we'd get applications from across the country (that's how I ended up here almost 20 years ago).  Over the last few years, we've mostly gotten only local applicants, presumably because the economics just aren't attractive for people to move here, even with what would be very good salaries.

Add in the fact that commercial/industrial space is becoming increasingly scarce/expensive, and it's easy to believe that local industry will be forced out.  

North Shore industrial land sees huge rise in value

Jan. 12, 2018, 3:27 p.m.
Posts: 897
Joined: March 18, 2017

What will become of the Port of Vancouver when this whole issue gets worse?

Jan. 12, 2018, 5:45 p.m.
Posts: 128
Joined: May 13, 2014

Posted by: PaulB

Posted by: blackfly

Vancouver is slowly turning into another Monaco where the wealth is generated elsewhere and the local industry is around such wealth, mostly services.  Note this means local industry is a thing of the past and good paying local jobs will be at a premium.  I would venture the best industry to be in right now is construction/renos/electrical etc...and all ancillary services with development.  In the lower mainland that is where the jobs are.

The company I work for employs engineers, software developers, physicists, machinists and fabricators.  It used to be that when we posted jobs, we'd get applications from across the country (that's how I ended up here almost 20 years ago).  Over the last few years, we've mostly gotten only local applicants, presumably because the economics just aren't attractive for people to move here, even with what would be very good salaries.

Add in the fact that commercial/industrial space is becoming increasingly scarce/expensive, and it's easy to believe that local industry will be forced out.  

North Shore industrial land sees huge rise in value

And interesting enough, all the employees you list are all highly educated.  What does that say?

Jan. 12, 2018, 7:42 p.m.
Posts: 11302
Joined: June 4, 2008

Posted by: blackfly

If your house value dropped 75% then I am assuming your other investment vehicles (RRSP, TFSA, RRIF etc) are all maxed out so it would make no difference.  I think you are full of it.

I completely understand why you'd want to ignore every reason why I think letting global investors treat our housing stock as an investment vehicle and instead choose to craft a half-assed strawman and go after that.

The only thing I demand is that you add that my Brad Pitt handsomness and Serj Tankian singing voice will also guarantee my success in perpetuity, not just my investing prowess.

Jan. 13, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
Posts: 11302
Joined: June 4, 2008

Posted by: chupacabra

You keep asking the same question because the answer is the crux of what you believe, so I will do the same. Do you think that global warming will create massive global migration by those with the means and if so, is Vancouver not high on the list of potential cities of refuge?

I think man-made climate change is real.

I think our predictive models on climate change impacts are as valid as a 14-day weather forecast.

In the context of this discussion, I believe it suffers from the conjunctive fallacy. (“Oh FFS what the fuck is that”)

I think the formula for those parking monies here is as follows:

1) I live in a shithole, how do I get my millions of questionable origin elsewhere?

2) Give me a list of the easiest places to send my questionable-origin funds to.

3) Sort by shitholeness in descending order.

4) Canada eh? What’s the weather like?

5) FUCK! All of it?

6) Hmmm, ok. My wife and children can handle the weather in this “VANCOUVER .”

I believe number two above is the major factor in determining where to go. Adding climate-change as a reason to this list can only lessen the group it represents.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy

Jan. 13, 2018, 4:06 p.m.
Posts: 897
Joined: March 18, 2017

How does an assessed value increase 50%+ in two years? I mean the grass was cut a bunch of times

Jan. 13, 2018, 4:43 p.m.
Posts: 11302
Joined: June 4, 2008

Posted by: Endur-Bro

How does an assessed value increase 50%+ in two years? I mean the grass was cut a bunch of times

The head of the CREA told me it's because of solid fundamentals, and then yelled at me to never ask that again.

Jan. 14, 2018, 7:57 p.m.
Posts: 341
Joined: Jan. 24, 2008

Damn you lower mainland, I am up 14% here in Kamloops.

Jan. 15, 2018, 11:11 a.m.
Posts: 1944
Joined: May 23, 2006

Posted by: ReductiMat

Posted by: Endur-Bro

How does an assessed value increase 50%+ in two years? I mean the grass was cut a bunch of times

The head of the CREA told me it's because of solid fundamentals, and then yelled at me to never ask that again.

Wow. Are you in cabinet?

Jan. 15, 2018, 12:43 p.m.
Posts: 10414
Joined: June 29, 2006

Posted by: ReductiMat

Posted by: chupacabra

You keep asking the same question because the answer is the crux of what you believe, so I will do the same. Do you think that global warming will create massive global migration by those with the means and if so, is Vancouver not high on the list of potential cities of refuge?

I think man-made climate change is real.

I think our predictive models on climate change impacts are as valid as a 14-day weather forecast.

In the context of this discussion, I believe it suffers from the conjunctive fallacy. (“Oh FFS what the fuck is that”)

I think the formula for those parking monies here is as follows:

1) I live in a shithole, how do I get my millions of questionable origin elsewhere?

2) Give me a list of the easiest places to send my questionable-origin funds to.

3) Sort by shitholeness in descending order.

4) Canada eh? What’s the weather like?

5) FUCK! All of it?

6) Hmmm, ok. My wife and children can handle the weather in this “VANCOUVER .”

I believe number two above is the major factor in determining where to go. Adding climate-change as a reason to this list can only lessen the group it represents.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy

So in their calculation, they are only looking at using Vancouver to park their questionable funds from, let's be honest here, China.  Vancouver is easy, and not too cold, simple as that?  OK, fair enough.  That is more or less what I thought you would say if I had asked you why foreign buyers are currently buying Vancouver RE.  The thing is, I didn't ask that. 

I asked;  

  • Do you think that global warming will create massive global migration?  

  • Is Vancouver not high on the list of potential cities of refuge?

My answer to both is yes, which is why I don't think much will change here as far as prices go, but I do think we will start seeing people arriving to live here in the next wave of foreign buying.  Vancouver to Portland is going to boom IMO.

So I have to know, what is exactly is the conjunctive fallacy that you speak of?  Global Warming vs Global Warming with 10 feet of sea level rise and superstorms every Tuesday?  Global warming vs Global Warming with mass human migrations?

Jan. 15, 2018, 2:55 p.m.
Posts: 897
Joined: March 18, 2017

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-explosive-b-c-court-case-details-seven-migration-scams

If this is the reason our assessed values are increasing so greatly then this entire way of life needs to be reevaluated.

Jan. 15, 2018, 4:23 p.m.
Posts: 11302
Joined: June 4, 2008

Posted by: chupacabra

Posted by: ReductiMat

Posted by: chupacabra

You keep asking the same question because the answer is the crux of what you believe, so I will do the same. Do you think that global warming will create massive global migration by those with the means and if so, is Vancouver not high on the list of potential cities of refuge?

I think man-made climate change is real.

I think our predictive models on climate change impacts are as valid as a 14-day weather forecast.

In the context of this discussion, I believe it suffers from the conjunctive fallacy. (“Oh FFS what the fuck is that”)

I think the formula for those parking monies here is as follows:

1) I live in a shithole, how do I get my millions of questionable origin elsewhere?

2) Give me a list of the easiest places to send my questionable-origin funds to.

3) Sort by shitholeness in descending order.

4) Canada eh? What’s the weather like?

5) FUCK! All of it?

6) Hmmm, ok. My wife and children can handle the weather in this “VANCOUVER .”

I believe number two above is the major factor in determining where to go. Adding climate-change as a reason to this list can only lessen the group it represents.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy

So in their calculation, they are only looking at using Vancouver to park their questionable funds from, let's be honest here, China. Vancouver is easy, and not too cold, simple as that? OK, fair enough. That is more or less what I thought you would say if I had asked you why foreign buyers are currently buying Vancouver RE. The thing is, I didn't ask that.

I asked;

  • Do you think that global warming will create massive global migration?

  • Is Vancouver not high on the list of potential cities of refuge?

My answer to both is yes, which is why I don't think much will change here as far as prices go, but I do think we will start seeing people arriving to live here in the next wave of foreign buying. Vancouver to Portland is going to boom IMO.

So I have to know, what is exactly is the conjunctive fallacy that you speak of? Global Warming vs Global Warming with 10 feet of sea level rise and superstorms every Tuesday? Global warming vs Global Warming with mass human migrations?

Sorry, I had thought I had basically come right out to say, no, man-made climate change has not created massive global migration in the last twenty years. Man-made climate change will not create massive global migration in the next ninety-two years. At least. I'll be willing to go out on a limb and say in the next five hundred years, there's a 50/50 chance.

Where would you go if it happened in your lifetime?

The Executive Director of ACT, Deborah Harford, is an expert on climate change adaptation strategies. The organization she heads advises all levels of government and works to build connections between researchers, NGOs, industry representatives, and First Nations groups to find strategies for coping with climate change. She points out,

In 2013, Vancouver was identified as one of the top cities in the world at risk from rising sea levels, based on the value of our exposed assets, including valuable waterfront properties. The world also faces increasingly severe and extended extreme weather events caused by climate change, such as intense precipitation that can cause flash flooding. When you combine these challenges with the region's vulnerability to Fraser River flooding in the spring freshet, it becomes clear that homeowners and business leaders alike have a clear incentive to include climate change in their assessment of capital risk.

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