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the future of mtb's

April 8, 2019, 4:36 p.m.
Posts: 885
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Now that it seems wheel size and frame geo's have more or less settled what do you think mtb's will look like in 3-5 yrs from now? More electric than pedal? Electric deraileurs to match or will internally geared hubs take over? Is the sport going to be the same five years from now or something radically different altogether?

context is everything

April 8, 2019, 6:49 p.m.
Posts: 494
Joined: Feb. 24, 2017

Now that it seems wheel size and frame geo's have more or less settled 

ha, hahaha, hahaaahaaahaha. AHHHHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHHHHAAAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

April 8, 2019, 7:20 p.m.
Posts: 885
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: JBV

Now that it seems wheel size and frame geo's have more or less settled 

ha, hahaha, hahaaahaaahaha. AHHHHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHHHHAAAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

bigger? back to smaller? 26" seems pretty much dead except for kids bikes. as for geo the longer/slacker has been around for a bit, just not for most brands.  where it might continue to change is on the ebike front; if climbing comfort/efficiency is no longer an issue due to the pedal assist then that allows bikes to be optimized for downhill performance.

April 8, 2019, 9:32 p.m.
Posts: 143
Joined: March 6, 2017

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: JBV

Now that it seems wheel size and frame geo's have more or less settled

ha, hahaha, hahaaahaaahaha. AHHHHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHHHHAAAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

bigger? back to smaller? 26" seems pretty much dead except for kids bikes. as for geo the longer/slacker has been around for a bit, just not for most brands. where it might continue to change is on the ebike front; if climbing comfort/efficiency is no longer an issue due to the pedal assist then that allows bikes to be optimized for downhill performance.

Yeah I think brands are going to put more focus into ebikes and leave analog alone for a while. 148 will stick around for a long while now etc.

That being said a birdie told me that 15mm rear axles are on the way. Now if they're on limited bikes like superboost or only ebikes remains to be seen.


 Last edited by: T-mack on April 8, 2019, 9:33 p.m., edited 1 time in total.
April 9, 2019, 7:57 a.m.
Posts: 30
Joined: Nov. 14, 2017

More electronic bits like shifting, droppers and suspension.  Geometry will continue to evolve and so will hub "standards".

April 9, 2019, 9:11 a.m.
Posts: 163
Joined: Feb. 24, 2017

The next big thing will be compliance. Frames designed to flex a bit for better control. As far as geometry I think we’ll see seat tube angles relax a touch but variable length rear centres will be a thing.

April 9, 2019, 9:27 a.m.
Posts: 12651
Joined: Nov. 24, 2002

Freeride will be great again.

April 9, 2019, 9:51 a.m.
Posts: 366
Joined: Jan. 31, 2005

Posted by: andy-eunson

The next big thing will be compliance. Frames designed to flex a bit for better control. As far as geometry I think we’ll see seat tube angles relax a touch but variable length rear centres will be a thing.

I'm not sure that seat angles will relax so much as be size-dependent, as they always should have been. It makes zero sense that a premium bike would have the same STA/CS across all sizes.

April 9, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
Posts: 4822
Joined: Nov. 25, 2002

Posted by: andy-eunson

The next big thing will be compliance. Frames designed to flex a bit for better control. As far as geometry I think we’ll see seat tube angles relax a touch but variable length rear centres will be a thing.

would love to see adjustable dropouts commonplace. if you're not going to offer size specific chainstay lengths, at least do a flip chip dropout. about time that manufacturers realized that offering frame sizes with a front center range of around 4" with the same rear center for all is just dumb.


 Last edited by: xy9ine on April 9, 2019, 12:02 p.m., edited 2 times in total.
April 9, 2019, 1:11 p.m.
Posts: 885
Joined: Nov. 23, 2002

Posted by: xy9ine

Posted by: andy-eunson

The next big thing will be compliance. Frames designed to flex a bit for better control. As far as geometry I think we’ll see seat tube angles relax a touch but variable length rear centres will be a thing.

would love to see adjustable dropouts commonplace. if you're not going to offer size specific chainstay lengths, at least do a flip chip dropout. about time that manufacturers realized that offering frame sizes with a front center range of around 4" with the same rear center for all is just dumb.

With adjustable dropouts do you think any effort needs to be put into considering how changing CS affects suspension kinematic? Should there also be some adjustments on the shock mounts?

April 9, 2019, 1:41 p.m.
Posts: 2187
Joined: Sept. 5, 2012

I see tricked out ebikes destroying the trails.

April 9, 2019, 2:35 p.m.
Posts: 9180
Joined: Nov. 19, 2002

Posted by: DemonMike

I see tricked out ebikes destroying the trails.

That's what other trail users used to say about mountain bikes. Should we learn that being divisive and NIMBY does not work out...or should we keep on fighting the new kids till they overtake us and we just get angrier and pissed off? I have been around long enough to see how the industry cycles and can see how stupid the arguments are against pedalecs. I don't own one, and probably won't for many years, but I do see the amazing correlations between the rise of the MTB and the rise of the pedalec...it's amazing how we have become the NIMBY's now.

As for the future, I would love to see the derailleur die, some type of gearbox start taking over...but I really can't see that for a few years yet. 

I would also love to see presta die for mountain bikes...just a bad standard, go back to schrader...tougher, more airflow and a better design for our bikes.

Tires are being worked on a lot lately, between new casings and rubber...I am excited to see them get better, probably one of the best things you can do for your bike is get good tires for your location and riding style. And then there are tire inserts...will they eventually merge into one system or will they stay separate?

Will dropper posts continue to get longer and seat tubes get shorter, will frame manufacturers start building stronger seat tube/top tubes to take the extra force that these longer posts are creating?

Change is good, and I love to see people working to make our sport better... I just hope companies stop using customers as their R&D department.

April 9, 2019, 3:15 p.m.
Posts: 366
Joined: Jan. 31, 2005

Posted by: syncro

Posted by: xy9ine

Posted by: andy-eunson

The next big thing will be compliance. Frames designed to flex a bit for better control. As far as geometry I think we’ll see seat tube angles relax a touch but variable length rear centres will be a thing.

would love to see adjustable dropouts commonplace. if you're not going to offer size specific chainstay lengths, at least do a flip chip dropout. about time that manufacturers realized that offering frame sizes with a front center range of around 4" with the same rear center for all is just dumb.

With adjustable dropouts do you think any effort needs to be put into considering how changing CS affects suspension kinematic? Should there also be some adjustments on the shock mounts?

The flip chip solution seems a tidy solution for manufacturers wanting to make a single carbon rear end that suits all frame sizes.

April 9, 2019, 3:33 p.m.
Posts: 10818
Joined: June 4, 2008

30.01mm crank spindles.

April 9, 2019, 3:40 p.m.
Posts: 4822
Joined: Nov. 25, 2002

The flip chip solution seems a tidy solution for manufacturers wanting to make a single carbon rear end that suits all frame sizes.

that said, if not adjustable dropout or different swingarm lengths, why they don't just alter the suspension pivot(s) to bb distance in the front triangle to affect size specific effective rear-centers (while using the same swingarm for the range, a la norco) is just confounding. wtf, industry people? no excuses. apart from laziness or just sheer obliviousness.

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