MEATengines 2022...

Re. e-bike content, I don’t think anyone living in the western world (maybe the whole world?) can be surprised at how quickly any technology that makes anything easier (especially physically easier) in exchange for money and some minor level of inconvenience (charging) catches on.

Greenwash it. Promise that with a steady input of cash mine will be better (and therefore I will be better) and run longer than my poorer/less-invested friends (not to mention all the f—kers pedaling themselves around) and watch it explode.

Now, make super premium (Kashima coated AXS) mountain bikes so expensive that the difference between a motor v. no motor is of inconsequential financial difference and watch which sells more units.

Demand for the battery-assisted content - spoken and obvious but unspoken - is ever increasing just as the stigma of riding has decreased so much that I, delightfully, haven’t seen any stupid “what about the potential for disabled people” straw-person arguments in ages.

[Which isn’t saying that plenty of disabled people haven’t benefited from e~bikes but c’mon - 0.01% of sales? A generous 5% to “other” and then the remaining 94.99% is middle aged men whose houses theoretically earned more than they did in the last decade.]

For me, personally, an e~MTB is the antithesis of the things I love about mountain biking. The simple beauty of a person powered machine, that I can work on myself, and where true improvements come from my efforts. What’s really cool about NSMB is that mine is one of a diverse range of opinions I’m under no pressure to say otherwise.

Fenders - I'm running 2.0 Schw Big Bens and picked up some SKS Bluemels (60mm wide IIRC).  I've not had time to fit yet.  I looked at Honjos (and others made by them) but couldn't justify the £££ given I've never run road fenders before.

I have some SKS anywhere mounts and bottle cage - they work great.

Ebikes - lots to unpack but I agree.  Another thing is companies are giving them a huuuuuge push as it's a new market with a high entry point and rapidly changing tech and customers who are hungry for the latest and greatest and disposable income to spend on them (middle aged men aren't playing golf or buying sports cars anymore...)

God only knows what happens to all the 2-3 year old ones with cooked motors and batteries...

Mtbs on the other hand are at a good point now - the only big change I would make would be to add a gearbox - but then I've been saying that for probably 10 years and it still hasn't happened therefore probably won't.

You don’t think there will be a market for battery shops in the future?

I mean a shop where they look at the physical size/shape of the battery and voltage requirements and make something up to suit. 

Makes sense for power tools, PHEVs, ebikes, etc. Its just hard to think that all the ebikes that people have spent a lot of money on will get tossed in a dumpster once the electrical bits are fried. 

But maybe it’s good if they do end up like that. I could use a new(ish) fork with a burly crown.

I really enjoyed this article about electric vehicles and believe that it applies to e-bikes as well; https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/01/25/Are-Electric-Cars-Solution/ 

I like the quote at the end; Ivan Illich, a great prophetic voice. The philosopher warned a half-century ago that unlimited and clean energy might appear to be the solution, but deliver its own problems. “Even if non-polluting power were feasible and abundant,” he wrote, “the use of energy on a massive scale acts on society like a drug that is physically harmless but psychically enslaving.”

The goal should be to use as little power as possible...if that is possible...

Posted by: icullis

The goal should be to use as little power as possible...if that is possible...

https://earlyretirementextreme.com/

The guy that started this ^^^ site really was more interested in reducing his ecological footprint than early retirement, but not working sooner sells better than saving the planet. One of his core ideas is to live on a slice of resources that is sustainable for the human population. He's been doing that for quite a while. So if that idea interests you his site is worth a look.

A side effect of living on a modest amount of resources is that it doesn't take much money to do so even in western countries. So you can save the planet and get of the work hamster wheel at the same time.

Posted by: mrbrett

You don’t think there will be a market for battery shops in the future?

I mean a shop where they look at the physical size/shape of the battery and voltage requirements and make something up to suit.

Makes sense for power tools, PHEVs, ebikes, etc. Its just hard to think that all the ebikes that people have spent a lot of money on will get tossed in a dumpster once the electrical bits are fried.

So, there have been battery shops for ages locally and I've acquired batteries for light systems and tools in the past. For anything that's plug-and-play I think that will continue forward into the future and could see that service industry growing.

On the other hand, anything with software updates (e~bikes, laptops, electric cars) I'm much more skeptical. Maybe if there are some changes to right-to-repair laws but as it stands right now, at least in terms of most of the e~bikes I've worked on, the system isn't going to recognize an aftermarket battery. I can't see any of the e~bike makers wanting to open this up because I truly believe they're all in a race to NOT be the first brand to burn down a popular riding area. There are already stories of add-on motor packages catching fire, I've seen light batteries go up, does anyone really think that an e~bike isn't going to catch fire in the woods one day?

If your brand's rig burns down Cumberland's tourist economy do you think anyone is going to care whether it was a stock battery or an aftermarket replacement?

Posted by: icullis

I really enjoyed this article about electric vehicles and believe that it applies to e-bikes as well; https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/01/25/Are-Electric-Cars-Solution/ 

I like the quote at the end; Ivan Illich, a great prophetic voice. The philosopher warned a half-century ago that unlimited and clean energy might appear to be the solution, but deliver its own problems. “Even if non-polluting power were feasible and abundant,” he wrote, “the use of energy on a massive scale acts on society like a drug that is physically harmless but psychically enslaving.”

The goal should be to use as little power as possible...if that is possible...

Very interesting. Thank you.

Posted by: icullis

I really enjoyed this article about electric vehicles and believe that it applies to e-bikes as well; https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/01/25/Are-Electric-Cars-Solution/

I like the quote at the end; Ivan Illich, a great prophetic voice. The philosopher warned a half-century ago that unlimited and clean energy might appear to be the solution, but deliver its own problems. “Even if non-polluting power were feasible and abundant,” he wrote, “the use of energy on a massive scale acts on society like a drug that is physically harmless but psychically enslaving.”

The goal should be to use as little power as possible...if that is possible...

Thanks for the link, that was a great read. My gut feeling has been that EVs won't save the planet and this proves it.

Unless bike companies change their spares programs significantly there will a number of challenges for keeping e-bikes running long-term. As Andrew alluded to proprietary parts mean it won't be simple to get a new battery or control board or other critical part. I would hope that a company that sells you a $10K e-bike would offer replacement parts for a guaranteed time like 10 years so you knew you'd be able to keep it rolling for that timeframe.

One obvious way to make this happen is to keep parts backwards compatible for longer periods so a spare can be used for several model years. That's not typical in bike industry product development cycles, but maybe they'll see the need to change that.

Since I'm mostly riding meat powered hardtails these days it's something I'm going to observe with interest as a spectator.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-highway-code-8-changes-you-need-to-know-from-29-january-2022

Recent changes to the UK's Highway Code.  The user heirarchy is a step in the right direction.  I'm not sure if this changes things in the real world but at least you have more of the law on your side when riding.

About A Bike (1) - If only the Sunrise bars had some flex...  I can handle the weight but they are so damn stiff.

If only ProTapers 3” riser came out in a 16° backsweep. The ride is comparably delightful.

Posted by: AndrewMajor

If only ProTapers 3” riser came out n 16* backsweep. The ride is comparably delightful.

Hunter Smooth Move High Rise is as close as it gets to that I think.

https://huntercycles.bigcartel.com/product/hunter-smooth-move-high-rise-handlebars

I snapped up 2 of the low rise version last time he had them in stock and I love em.