MEATengines 2022...

It must be scary for bike companies knowing that in a few years people will no longer need to update their bikes as regularly as they have. Maybe this is the reason for the big push on e-bikes over Meat bikes. A good example is something like the Nicolai G1 - very adjustable (geo and travel) and robust therefore having a very long life span. I'm sure it could be made lighter or the flex could be "tuned" but it is chasing small percentages.

Given the above though i'm sure there are plenty of people who want the latest bike / frame just because it's the latest.  

And it's human nature to keep wanting more and not be satisfied with what they have.

When you think about it, e-bikes are perfect from a bike sellers perspective. They’ll keep some customers from aging out of mountain biking. They’ll bring in a pile of people who think mountain biking is cool but are put off by the effort (previously) required. They’re evolving so fast that aficionados will be replacing them every 1-3 years and it’s an open question how many years they’ll last on the used market.

With self-powered bikes we’re about ready for another swing of maximum weight-weenie in all applications but the engineering and materials investment to win that game - marginal improvements or otherwise - makes it a fairly exclusive club.

I also think we’re going to see a push to much longer rear centres any year now - #wheelbaseisthenewheadangle - and that will grab some riders.

I agree that nerd-bikes like the GeoMetron will continue to sell well because people will be tuned into the Lego-factor. Especially when it’s increasingly hard (cost, stagnation) for folks to justify new rigs to themselves.

Posted by: fartymarty

It must be scary for bike companies knowing that in a few years people will no longer need to update their bikes as regularly as they have.

This ^^^ has been true for a while and it has not dulled people's enthusiasm for buying some new and marginally improved shit. If i had to guess my breakdown of necessary vs. gratuitous MTB spending is something like 15% to 85%.  That said e-bikes just provide one more reason to spend a lot of money so they will be welcomed as the next great thing in the MTB media-industrial complex like so many other "innovations" before them.

Posted by: Endurimil

Vik, it is a bad trope.  And this is something have touched on elsewhere in past endless discussions of how we need to make "the sport more inclusive and diverse'. There is something fundamentally wrong when people have this perception that an entry level mtb needs to be $2,000. I know a few people who balked at cycling because what is marketed is for those with financial privilege. Reality is most I know who have asked me about getting into bikes $500-800 is there starting point. This trope further fuels that perception of unless you can afford a $2000 FS you can't get into it. And that is by far the hugest barrier to getting more into the sport.

Prior to last month I was frequently the social circle bike nerd that got asked about what bike to buy for various people.  These folks were middle class and up so a $2K-$3K bike was a reasonable starting point and some folks could afford more. As a private citizen I could suggest any brand/model that was for sale to someone in my area. Given the budget and the range of options I did not have an issue coming up with some satisfactory suggestions.

Last month I started working PT inside the bike industry [nothing extensive nor exciting]. Now I do not possess any expert level knowledge nor abilities. That said in the context of my local bike shop scene I am the most knowledgeable and interested in hardtails as a viable MTB choice regardless of budget, skill level and trails to be ridden [within reason]. I now face a more difficult challenge. Coming up with one or two hardtail bike options that hit low and moderate price points. Further constrained by the fact I can only choose from brands/models available to my part of the bike industry and not wanting to sell anyone a bike that's not suitable to the job of regular real world mountain biking.

The low price point bike will be the hardest. I don't know that there is anyway to get someone out the door on a worthwhile $500 hardtail bike. I am somewhat doubtful even sub-$1000 [talking Canada Bucks in case that is not clear] is possible for a new bike purchased at retail pricing. I've just started thinking about this so I don't have any firm idea where things will land. As Andrew and Mike F have alluded to in the past on NSMB purchase cost is not the whole story with a MTB. Lifecycle cost for a MTB that's used regularly is very important as is the effort to set it up and keep it running somewhere close to its potential. I suspect a critical part of developing a low cost hardtail option will be having additional material on hand that's easily digestible to a consumer that shows the impact of these two issues so they can make an informed decision looking at more than the price on the tag hanging from the handlebar.

I can say that I would rather someone decides not to ride mountain bikes as their sport/hobby because a realistic entry point/maintenance regime exceeds their budget vs. selling them junk they won't enjoy and will end up costing them more money than they want to spend. I hike and trail run. Both those activities allow you to get exercise and enjoy time on the trails at a far far far lower cost than mountain biking. So I'd rather point someone at a new pair of boots/runners than a new bike if the bike is not going to be a good long-term choice for them, but they want to be on the trails.

Posted by: Vikb
I can say that I would rather someone decides not to ride mountain bikes as their sport/hobby because a realistic entry point/maintenance regime exceeds their budget vs. selling them junk they won't enjoy and will end up costing them more money than they want to spend.

I very much endorse this perspective.

It’s amazing to me how much more we pay for everything (GAS! Bananas!) but folks who bought a good entry level mountain bike for $400 in the ‘90s expect to still be able to do the same now. And they’re not alone, you should hear the f***ers driving 6-figure Tesla’s talk about how they used to be able to get a “full XT” bike for under Xk. X being 2,3,4,5k depending on what decade their bike value meter is broken to.

Used bikes are, of course, an answer but the market’s been insane and the hidden costs to an unknowledgeable consumer are brutal. I wish more shops dabbled in used bikes though, for this reason.

My starting point for mountain biking on the North Shore (and it would be very different in other places) is hydraulic disc brakes, a basic 1x drivetrain, no weird compatibility crap that will prevent future upgrades, and decent geo. Tires will be okay for summer green/blue trails but will be the first upgrade for year round traction.

I was supposed to be testing a pile of hardtail in the 1-2K range this year (writing a piece about it right now) but with my injury the review portion is pushed back or maybe cancelled. When I can ride I’ll follow up.

Bikes like the Kona Lavadome ($1200 CAD) with a Microshift clutched drivetrain and Tektro hydraulic brakes have real potential. I hate to say it but below that, for a trail rig and often for a commuter rig too, I think people are often waisting their money.

I also think bikes like the current Lavadome that have a long history and a similar spot in a product range are way better values than the legacy bikes with the same name. In 1998 a Lavadome was ~$600 with an Indy S fork and STX 7-Speed drivetrain.

Used bikes can be great. However, they are a real problem in some ways. You alluded to the hidden costs above. Helping a friend I can look at a new bike and fire back an opinion in a few minutes. The product info is readily available and the parts spec not hard to work out, geo charts fall to hand easily, etc... When I have had friends looking at used bikes I've rec'd emails with 10 links to used bikes at a time. I just don't have the time or interest to wade through that amount of information. Especially when each ad takes so much more time to evaluate. How "used" is the bike? Can I find a geo chart? Did the owner do anything weird? What's fair price? It goes on and on. My usual response is narrow it down to two used bikes you really are keen on and I'll give you my take on which is a better option.

Another issue from a friend perspective is that if there is problem with a new bike I can quickly evaluate it and send them back to the LBS/vendor with a plan of action that has a high chance of success.  With a used bike it would be easy for all sorts of things to end up being wrong. I feel bad if I was involved in selecting that bike and there is likely no easy/cheap path to happiness. 

The one exception is that most of my old bikes get donated/sold to friends who I know don't have the budget for a quality new ride. I price the sale low enough I have no guilt if they need to do some work on the machine. I know roughly what the risks of a real problem are and I wouldn't do the deal if I had serious concerns. Worst case I'll buy the bike back for the $$ paid and take the loss myself...happily this hasn't happened yet. On the plus side I get a buddy out riding on a nice machine and I know that old bike is still being used. As a bonus I don't have to deal with the frequent douche baggery a sale on Pink Bike entails.

A lot of this same stuff is an issue for a LBS that wants to sell used bikes. There are so many pitfalls for the limited money that can be made I don't blame them for lacking enthusiasm. Perhaps the one exception is buying back lightly used 1 - 2 year old bikes that they sold and serviced to allow the owner to get a new ride more easily. With more knowledge of the machine's history the risk are lower and if you get to sell the rider a new bike it could be worth your hassle to deal with the used bike. However, this probably doesn't really help someone beginning their MTB career shopping at the very bottom price points.

Helping friends with bike advice on new bikes I do. With used bikes the pitfalls require more caveats than comments never mind the time investment you note.

———

I’ve tossed around the idea of a buy-back for credit program. A shop I used to work at did it with kids bikes. I recall the depreciation was 50% per year and it was only on bikes they sold. I mean, there’d be some tweaking with adult bikes maybe based on the condition they were in/how much work they needed. And, like used cars, there’s the potential to get more money in a private sale but by returning it to the dealer you absolve yourself of responsibility  never mind the bullshit involved in selling stuff.

So let’s say I suggest that Lavadome to a friend at $1200 for a starter. If he trades it in after a year it’s $600 towards the next rig. I bleed brakes, cable it, replace chain, rubber as needed and sell it for $900. I haven’t made or lost a dime but now I have two customers instead of one. Buddy comes back after a couple year and upgrades with a $450 credit and so on. 

Now where I’d need to adjust it is if buyer one doesn’t one waits a few years to trade in (not outgrowing the bike like a kid) because obviously it’s worth more than $300 even with having put work into it. And, I admit it’s on the balance point between community service and marketing but I think it would be a neat way to keep bikes being ridden.

Especially when I think of how many folks I know with an extra bike sitting they never ride because they can’t be bothered to sell it. It’s one part getting a credit and one part getting a bike out of the garage and one part helping someone mountain bike who couldn’t afford it otherwise?

Anyway, huge PIA, just like a saddle library but I think it has legs.

Posted by: AndrewMajor

Anyway, huge PIA, just like a saddle library but I think it has legs.

Back in Calgary around Y2K my LBS would let you buy saddles and return them for credit as long as they looked new. It was a reasonable way to test a saddle out and as long as you didn't damage it you knew you could give it back and try another.

Posted by: AndrewMajor

When you think about it, e-bikes are perfect from a bike sellers perspective. They’ll keep some customers from aging out of mountain biking. They’ll bring in a pile of people who think mountain biking is cool but are put off by the effort (previously) required. They’re evolving so fast that aficionados will be replacing them every 1-3 years and it’s an open question how many years they’ll last on the used market.

With self-powered bikes we’re about ready for another swing of maximum weight-weenie in all applications but the engineering and materials investment to win that game - marginal improvements or otherwise - makes it a fairly exclusive club.

I also think we’re going to see a push to much longer rear centres any year now - #wheelbaseisthenewheadangle - and that will grab some riders.

I agree that nerd-bikes like the GeoMetron will continue to sell well because people will be tuned into the Lego-factor. Especially when it’s increasingly hard (cost, stagnation) for folks to justify new rigs to themselves.

Ebikes are a bike companies wet dream - changing motor / battery standards / gear boxes / double crown forks etc etc.  All in a short life cycle with a high entry price and no resale value - therefore people have to buy new as the old ones will be in less demand than a 5 year old Tesla.

I don't mind a bit of WWism as long as the hygiene factors are taken care of - decent geo - decent robustness - decent handling.  It's a metric that sells and it's and easy sell for bike companies - who wouldn't take a frame that's 300g lighter than last years model?

In one of his videos Paul Aston mentioned he was going to get a custom frame made with a 500CS and 500R.  My Krampus has a 446CS and 441R and it rides fine IMO.  Full disclosure I haven't ridden a short CS bike in a while - Bro in laws Intense SS2 (in 2017) which scared me because I couldn't weight the front enough to prevent if from washing out.  One thing I would change with my Murmur would be to have a longer CS than the 445.  It would balance my weight better - less weight required on the front wheel - less fatigue to arms / shoulders.  

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/bike-check-isak-leivssons-homemade-high-pivot-dh-bike.html looks right proportionally to me.

I hope the future holds more customizable local or at least domestic rapid manufacture bikes. Think Atherton Bikes. I for one won't buy a bike with longer than 430mm CS [and I'd love sliders for say [420mm - 430mm range] mated to a M/L front end so if I don't find a suitable production option I'll get a custom bike. Not the end of the world, but being able to select from a menu from a company say HQ'd in Europe, design details interneted to North America and have a frame built say in Vancouver or Seattle and then I can collect it would be rad. 

Rapid manufacture should allow that to happen for a lot of things. No need to stock a part for a 10 year old fridge or bike or car when the design file can be transmitted anywhere in the world and built in a generic manufacturing facility on demand.

Just to be clear I am happy for you long CS folks to get what you want even if I would burn it with fire. I am hopeful we can all get what we want.

Posted by: Vikb

Posted by: fartymarty

It must be scary for bike companies knowing that in a few years people will no longer need to update their bikes as regularly as they have.

This ^^^ has been true for a while and it has not dulled people's enthusiasm for buying some new and marginally improved shit. If i had to guess my breakdown of necessary vs. gratuitous MTB spending is something like 15% to 85%.  That said e-bikes just provide one more reason to spend a lot of money so they will be welcomed as the next great thing in the MTB media-industrial complex like so many other "innovations" before them.

Vik, if wasn't hit by the car in 2019 and had the 2007 Chromag Samurai destroyed would still be happily riding it. And racing it in the local Half Marathon series beating guys in the clydesdale Cat on newer bikes. So while got new frame to replace it as well as a complete stylus. I am a dirt bag and RGMC type who will happily buy the parts that still work off the guy who wants his shiny new XTR cranks or what not.

^ I seems like e-bikes are killing the original dirt bag ethic of mtn biking

and what is RMBC?   likeliest thing from google is "Rube Goldberg Machine Contest"

Posted by: taprider

^ I seems like e-bikes are killing the original dirt bag ethic of mtn biking

and what is RMBC?   likeliest thing from google is "Rube Goldberg Machine Contest"

I suppose there could be an MAMB sub-culture that develops where the gather the discarded remnants of worthless 5 year old electric bikes and Mad Max style hack them together into functional devices at low cost.

If my memory serves me Retrogrouch Mountain Bike Club.

Posted by: AndrewMajor

Posted by: Vikb
I can say that I would rather someone decides not to ride mountain bikes as their sport/hobby because a realistic entry point/maintenance regime exceeds their budget vs. selling them junk they won't enjoy and will end up costing them more money than they want to spend.

I very much endorse this perspective.

Bikes like the Kona Lavadome ($1200 CAD) with a Microshift clutched drivetrain and Tektro hydraulic brakes have real potential. I hate to say it but below that, for a trail rig and often for a commuter rig too, I think people are often waisting their money.

I also think bikes like the current Lavadome that have a long history and a similar spot in a product range are way better values than the legacy bikes with the same name. In 1998 a Lavadome was ~$600 with an Indy S fork and STX 7-Speed drivetrain.

I just picked up a used Rocky Metropolis for $300 as my new commuter and it would work well as a gravel bike too. The cost of replacing rims/wheels on my old rim-braked road bike had me thinking that getting a new (used) commuter or 29er hardtail would be money better spent and I was rewarded - people just need to be a little patient and willing to spend some time looking. And of course have the requisite knowledge to know what to look for. 

It was funny seeing the amount of blowback against suggesting hard tails as the way to go for a beginner rider in one of the articles last week, they make so much sense as the entry point for most people due to a number of factors, including the idea that if people don't get hooked on mtb'ing then they have a bike they can use for commuting or a sunday pedal around the sea-wall.