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"I'd bet in 10 years time there wont be many 2021 carbon bikes on the trails as 2021 metal bikes."
You are probably right, but in my experience, carbon fiber frames are both easier to break and easier to repair than aluminum frames.
Also left out of this discussion is the issue of recycling. An aluminum frame is easily and cheaply recycled. Carbon fiber not so much. This brings down the CO2 cost of aluminum even further relative to carbon. Wether people \*do\* recycle their aluminum frames is another issue worth discussing.
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