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Cam - I see road bike design as plateauing and changes year to year are very small - probably un-noticable by Joe average roadie. As you note I can't see a lot changing in the next 10 years that is game changing - given they stick within the UCI rules which I see as a hinderance to road bike design for those who aren't racing and bound by the UCI. Throw away the UCI rules and it's game on - I would love to see road bikes develop like we have with mountain bikes.
Mountain bikes however are still seeing significant changes - Geo is still being tweaked and we are reaching / understanding the limits. Gearboxes are still niche but I see a future where "proper" mountain bikes have gearboxes. Suspension will always be a work in progress and will continue to develop. Tyre tech, electronics, overall weight, stiffness / flex will continue to develop. Looking 5 years out there are going to be significant changes. Given the amount of tech we have on mountain bikes over road bikes there are always going to be improvements.
I guess what I was trying to say above was that if road bikes can still sell each year (because people like shiny new things) then its going to be easy to sell mountain bikes as the improvement in mountain bikes will be significant.
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