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March 26, 2020, 8:58 a.m. -  Timer

Interesting. Similar scenarios have been considered/exercised/run by lots of countries and institutions, usually modelled on SARS or Influenza. The results in this case are not fully applicable to COVID-19 because some important aspects of the pathogen are vastly different. Most notable the assumed (age-independent) hospitalisation rate of 50%. That would have far worse effects on the economy than Covid and force governments to prioritize the provision of infrastructure and supplies over preventing deaths. The current crisis is fairly unique in so far as one of the typical problems in times of epidemics, shortage of essential personnel due to illness and death, would not be a huge issue.

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